Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.28 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.76 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 1.95 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.97 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.16 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.16 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.39 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.40 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.45 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.49 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.54 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.57 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.58 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.61 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.62 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.66 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.70 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.71 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.73 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.77 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.81 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 2.85 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.86 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.94 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.97 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.97 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.97 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 2.98 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 3.01 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 3.01 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.01 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 3.02 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.03 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 3.05 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.11 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.13 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.23 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.30 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 3.40 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.55 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.63 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.66 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.93 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.94 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 4.12 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 4.28 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 4.35 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 4.82 | 4.62 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 5.01 | 4.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 5.75 | 3.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 75.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |