Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.37 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.74 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.89 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.93 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.98 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.12 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.19 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.32 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.32 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.38 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.38 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.41 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.46 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.47 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.55 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.57 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.60 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.66 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.67 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.67 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.73 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.75 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.75 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.81 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.84 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.86 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.87 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.89 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.93 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.95 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.98 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.99 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.02 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.11 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 3.12 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 3.15 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.15 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 3.24 | -2.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.24 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.44 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 3.50 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.53 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.54 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.55 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.65 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 3.72 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.79 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.81 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 4.06 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.17 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 91.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |