Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.25 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.77 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 1.91 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.94 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.15 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.18 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.28 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.36 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.46 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.47 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.51 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.56 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.58 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.59 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.61 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.67 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.69 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.73 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.74 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.79 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 2.80 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.83 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.88 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.92 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.96 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.98 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.99 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.00 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.01 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.02 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 3.02 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 3.04 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.05 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 3.06 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.13 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.16 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.24 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 3.27 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.42 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.52 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.60 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.64 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.93 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.95 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 4.11 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 4.27 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 4.35 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 4.87 | 4.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 5.05 | 4.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 5.81 | 3.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 41.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 66.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |