Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 1.74 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 1.76 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 1.76 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.78 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.99 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 1.99 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.12 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.16 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.17 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.24 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.25 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.27 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.28 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.33 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.34 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.39 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.41 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.44 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.48 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.51 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.52 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.53 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.55 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.56 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.56 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.57 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.60 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.66 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.66 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.69 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.71 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.74 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.74 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.76 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 2.78 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.82 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 2.87 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.94 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.95 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 3.01 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.03 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 3.11 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.13 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.14 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 3.22 | -2.80 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.47 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 3.62 | 3.33 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.63 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.87 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.97 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 43.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 52.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-28 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |