Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.24 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.78 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.84 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 1.93 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.04 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.06 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.29 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.31 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.39 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.42 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.45 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.50 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.53 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.62 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.64 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.67 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.69 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.69 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.71 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.73 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.83 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.84 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.92 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.93 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.94 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.96 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 2.99 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.01 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.04 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.07 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.09 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 3.09 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.12 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.17 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 3.21 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 3.28 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.32 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.49 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 3.51 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 3.57 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 3.62 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.94 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 4.03 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 4.03 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 4.12 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 4.45 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 4.98 | 4.77 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 5.15 | 4.36 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 5.91 | 3.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 34.0°F | 34.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 32.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 47.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 38.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |