Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 34 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 17.5 |
| Richmond VA | 33 | 0.91 | 0.24 | 17.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 34 | 1.00 | -0.12 | 17.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 34 | 1.03 | 0.21 | 17.5 |
| Juneau AK | 34 | 1.09 | 0.68 | 17.5 |
| Columbus OH | 33 | 1.21 | 0.61 | 17.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 34 | 1.32 | -0.50 | 17.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 34 | 1.35 | 0.47 | 17.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 34 | 1.44 | 0.15 | 17.5 |
| Nashville TN | 33 | 1.52 | -0.67 | 17.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 33 | 1.58 | -1.21 | 17.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 34 | 1.62 | 0.26 | 17.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 33 | 1.64 | 0.30 | 17.0 |
| Jackson MS | 34 | 1.65 | -0.12 | 17.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 34 | 1.68 | 1.09 | 17.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 34 | 1.68 | 0.97 | 17.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 33 | 1.79 | 0.52 | 17.0 |
| Lansing MI | 34 | 1.82 | 1.18 | 17.5 |
| Salem OR | 33 | 1.82 | 1.09 | 17.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 34 | 1.88 | 0.53 | 17.5 |
| Topeka KS | 34 | 1.94 | 1.88 | 17.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 33 | 1.94 | 0.67 | 17.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 34 | 2.00 | 0.06 | 17.5 |
| Madison WI | 33 | 2.00 | 1.39 | 17.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 34 | 2.09 | 2.09 | 17.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 34 | 2.12 | -1.76 | 17.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 34 | 2.21 | 0.09 | 17.5 |
| Springfield IL | 34 | 2.24 | 1.65 | 17.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 34 | 2.26 | -1.79 | 17.5 |
| Dover DE | 34 | 2.56 | 0.32 | 17.5 |
| Pierre SD | 33 | 2.61 | 2.55 | 17.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 34 | 2.65 | 2.35 | 17.5 |
| Hartford CT | 34 | 2.68 | 1.21 | 17.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 34 | 2.79 | 2.79 | 17.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 34 | 2.82 | -1.76 | 17.5 |
| Austin TX | 33 | 3.00 | 2.94 | 17.0 |
| Charleston WV | 33 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 17.0 |
| Olympia WA | 33 | 3.15 | 0.30 | 17.0 |
| Columbia SC | 33 | 3.24 | -3.24 | 17.0 |
| Helena MT | 34 | 3.38 | 2.85 | 17.5 |
| Denver CO | 34 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 17.5 |
| Boise ID | 34 | 3.56 | 2.62 | 17.5 |
| Providence RI | 33 | 3.70 | 3.58 | 17.0 |
| Boston MA | 34 | 3.79 | 3.50 | 17.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 34 | 4.53 | 3.06 | 17.5 |
| Augusta ME | 34 | 4.53 | 2.59 | 17.5 |
| Albany NY | 34 | 4.65 | 2.41 | 17.5 |
| Concord NH | 34 | 4.91 | 3.68 | 17.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 33 | 4.97 | 2.42 | 17.0 |
| Carson City NV | 34 | 5.50 | 4.91 | 17.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 97.0°F | +0.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 91.0°F | 82.0°F | +9.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 34.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 33.0 |
| 2026-07-15 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 33.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 33.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 33.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 92.0°F | 85.0°F | +7.0° | 33.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 33.0 |