Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.32 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.84 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.86 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.88 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.93 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.15 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.32 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.38 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.42 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.43 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.44 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.44 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.49 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.59 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.60 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.65 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.66 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.68 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.70 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.70 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.70 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.75 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.78 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.80 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.89 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.92 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.94 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.03 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 3.03 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.17 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 3.20 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.22 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.24 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.24 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.26 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.29 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.30 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.55 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.56 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.58 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.78 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 3.90 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 3.98 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 4.08 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 4.15 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 4.28 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 4.69 | 4.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 5.91 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 89.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 84.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 88.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |