Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.17 | -0.41 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.76 | -1.10 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 1.84 | 0.03 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 1.91 | 0.77 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 1.92 | -0.64 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.99 | 0.48 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.07 | -0.37 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.10 | -0.28 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.11 | 0.14 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.22 | -0.14 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.34 | -0.61 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.35 | 1.35 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.35 | 0.65 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.44 | 0.50 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.50 | -0.54 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.54 | -1.29 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.54 | 0.39 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.56 | -1.08 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.59 | -0.28 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.59 | -1.26 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.60 | 0.62 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.63 | 0.78 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.64 | 1.03 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.67 | -0.40 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.69 | -0.12 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.70 | -2.56 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.71 | -0.73 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.71 | -0.61 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.76 | 1.24 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.86 | -2.13 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.95 | -0.69 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 2.95 | 2.15 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.99 | -0.33 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.01 | -1.02 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 3.04 | -2.18 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.07 | -1.58 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 3.07 | 0.75 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.08 | 1.37 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.08 | 2.13 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 3.09 | -2.24 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.15 | 1.37 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.20 | 0.29 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 3.36 | -0.86 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.37 | 1.77 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 3.43 | -2.30 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.45 | 0.97 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.57 | -0.54 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.60 | 0.36 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.73 | 2.60 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 56.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 MST | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 67.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 MST | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 MST | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 PST | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 PST | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 EST | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |