Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 172 | 1.21 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.69 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.70 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.71 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.74 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.80 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.83 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 1.96 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 1.99 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.01 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.09 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.20 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.20 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.23 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.27 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.27 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.28 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.29 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.29 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.38 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.39 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.40 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.42 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.44 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.47 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.48 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.48 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.49 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.49 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.52 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.53 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.56 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.58 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.66 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.70 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.76 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 2.76 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.80 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.82 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.94 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.23 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.27 | -2.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.32 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.57 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.67 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.70 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.78 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.79 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 4.03 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 4.22 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |