Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.24 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.80 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.93 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.09 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.16 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.28 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.30 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.36 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.47 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.47 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.48 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.52 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.52 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.52 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.60 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.61 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.65 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.66 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.70 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.70 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.72 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.79 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.79 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.84 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.85 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.87 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.88 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.92 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.94 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.95 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.95 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.97 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.04 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.07 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 3.08 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.10 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.10 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.21 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.30 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.35 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.49 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.60 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.72 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.85 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.87 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.97 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 4.43 | 4.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 4.43 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 4.73 | 3.65 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 5.58 | 4.25 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 74.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |