Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 25 | 0.80 | 0.24 | 13.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 26 | 0.81 | -0.19 | 13.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 27 | 0.96 | 0.81 | 14.0 |
| Columbus OH | 25 | 0.96 | 0.16 | 13.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 27 | 1.19 | 0.30 | 14.0 |
| Juneau AK | 27 | 1.22 | 0.70 | 14.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 27 | 1.30 | -0.85 | 14.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 27 | 1.37 | 0.63 | 14.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 27 | 1.48 | 0.30 | 14.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 25 | 1.48 | -1.00 | 13.0 |
| Nashville TN | 25 | 1.48 | -0.76 | 13.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 26 | 1.54 | 0.46 | 13.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 25 | 1.56 | 0.92 | 13.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 27 | 1.59 | 0.26 | 14.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 26 | 1.69 | 0.92 | 13.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 25 | 1.80 | 0.92 | 13.0 |
| Jackson MS | 26 | 1.81 | 0.04 | 13.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 26 | 1.81 | 1.81 | 13.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 27 | 1.85 | -0.15 | 14.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 27 | 1.93 | -1.48 | 14.0 |
| Lansing MI | 26 | 1.96 | 1.65 | 13.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 25 | 1.96 | 1.32 | 13.0 |
| Salem OR | 25 | 2.00 | 1.36 | 13.0 |
| Topeka KS | 27 | 2.04 | 1.96 | 14.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 27 | 2.15 | -1.56 | 14.0 |
| Charleston WV | 25 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 13.0 |
| Madison WI | 25 | 2.16 | 1.36 | 13.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 27 | 2.19 | 0.56 | 14.0 |
| Springfield IL | 27 | 2.30 | 1.93 | 14.0 |
| Pierre SD | 25 | 2.36 | 2.28 | 13.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 27 | 2.48 | 0.33 | 14.0 |
| Dover DE | 27 | 2.59 | -0.07 | 14.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 26 | 2.62 | -1.23 | 13.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 26 | 2.77 | 2.77 | 13.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 26 | 2.85 | 2.77 | 13.5 |
| Hartford CT | 27 | 2.96 | 1.26 | 14.0 |
| Columbia SC | 25 | 2.96 | -2.96 | 13.0 |
| Austin TX | 25 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 13.0 |
| Providence RI | 25 | 3.56 | 3.40 | 13.0 |
| Helena MT | 26 | 3.62 | 2.92 | 13.5 |
| Boston MA | 27 | 3.70 | 3.56 | 14.0 |
| Olympia WA | 25 | 3.76 | 0.08 | 13.0 |
| Denver CO | 27 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 14.0 |
| Boise ID | 27 | 4.19 | 3.22 | 14.0 |
| Augusta ME | 26 | 5.08 | 4.15 | 13.5 |
| Carson City NV | 26 | 5.08 | 4.31 | 13.5 |
| Albany NY | 26 | 5.08 | 2.92 | 13.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 27 | 5.30 | 4.26 | 14.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 25 | 5.60 | 3.12 | 13.0 |
| Concord NH | 26 | 5.62 | 4.46 | 13.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-14 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 27.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 26.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 26.0 |