Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.41 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 1.62 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.63 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.77 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.94 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.01 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.04 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.04 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.07 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.08 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.09 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.16 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.17 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.21 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.24 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.25 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.26 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.28 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.30 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.31 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.34 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.34 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.44 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.46 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.46 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.47 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.54 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.65 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.73 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.77 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.77 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.82 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.85 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.88 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.89 | -2.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.93 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.93 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.02 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.06 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.19 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.21 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.32 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.34 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.34 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.35 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.57 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.68 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.73 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.82 | -3.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 4.44 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 100.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 92.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |