Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.37 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.72 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.89 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.91 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.00 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.12 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.16 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.32 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.33 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.38 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.38 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.41 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.48 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.49 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.53 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.58 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.62 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.66 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.68 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.68 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.74 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.77 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.77 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.77 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.83 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.86 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.89 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.90 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.94 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.95 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.98 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 3.00 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.01 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.09 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.11 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.11 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.16 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.26 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.27 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.43 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.48 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.51 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.56 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.56 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.68 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 3.75 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.82 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.83 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 4.08 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.11 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 92.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 83.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 36.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |