Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 44 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 22.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 44 | 0.95 | -0.09 | 22.5 |
| Columbus OH | 43 | 1.23 | 0.77 | 22.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 44 | 1.25 | -0.20 | 22.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 44 | 1.27 | 0.55 | 22.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 44 | 1.30 | -0.39 | 22.5 |
| Jackson MS | 44 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 22.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 43 | 1.49 | 0.28 | 22.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 44 | 1.52 | 0.84 | 22.5 |
| Juneau AK | 44 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 22.5 |
| Richmond VA | 43 | 1.65 | 1.14 | 22.0 |
| Nashville TN | 43 | 1.79 | 0.12 | 22.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 43 | 1.86 | 0.88 | 22.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 44 | 1.89 | 0.84 | 22.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 43 | 1.91 | 0.65 | 22.0 |
| Salem OR | 43 | 1.95 | 1.30 | 22.0 |
| Madison WI | 43 | 1.98 | 1.51 | 22.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 44 | 2.05 | 1.05 | 22.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 44 | 2.05 | 1.00 | 22.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 44 | 2.07 | -1.66 | 22.5 |
| Lansing MI | 44 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 22.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 44 | 2.09 | 0.23 | 22.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 44 | 2.20 | 0.70 | 22.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 44 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 22.5 |
| Topeka KS | 44 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 22.5 |
| Springfield IL | 44 | 2.34 | 1.89 | 22.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 43 | 2.35 | 0.07 | 22.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 44 | 2.48 | -2.11 | 22.5 |
| Dover DE | 44 | 2.50 | 0.36 | 22.5 |
| Pierre SD | 43 | 2.56 | 2.51 | 22.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 44 | 2.57 | 2.02 | 22.5 |
| Boise ID | 44 | 3.05 | 2.32 | 22.5 |
| Helena MT | 44 | 3.07 | 2.11 | 22.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 44 | 3.14 | 2.91 | 22.5 |
| Olympia WA | 43 | 3.23 | -0.58 | 22.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 44 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 22.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 44 | 3.25 | -1.84 | 22.5 |
| Charleston WV | 43 | 3.28 | 3.28 | 22.0 |
| Denver CO | 44 | 3.39 | 2.84 | 22.5 |
| Columbia SC | 43 | 3.49 | -3.49 | 22.0 |
| Hartford CT | 44 | 3.82 | 2.68 | 22.5 |
| Augusta ME | 44 | 3.84 | 2.34 | 22.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 44 | 4.00 | 2.45 | 22.5 |
| Austin TX | 43 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 22.0 |
| Carson City NV | 44 | 4.48 | 3.89 | 22.5 |
| Boston MA | 44 | 4.68 | 4.45 | 22.5 |
| Providence RI | 43 | 4.79 | 4.70 | 22.0 |
| Concord NH | 44 | 5.23 | 4.27 | 22.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 43 | 5.30 | 3.35 | 22.0 |
| Albany NY | 44 | 6.27 | 4.55 | 22.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 99.0°F | +2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 94.0°F | 94.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 82.0°F | 76.0°F | +6.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 83.0°F | +6.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 43.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 43.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 43.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 43.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 43.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 43.0 |