Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.22 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.64 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.95 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.06 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.17 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.27 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.31 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.42 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.45 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.49 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.54 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.55 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.56 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.56 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.66 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.67 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.67 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.69 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.70 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.72 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.76 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.79 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.87 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.88 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.89 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.90 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.91 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.96 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.97 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 3.01 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 3.01 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.02 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 3.06 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.09 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 3.11 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 3.13 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.13 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.15 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.16 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 3.41 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.53 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 3.68 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.81 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 3.96 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.99 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 4.03 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 4.53 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 4.59 | 4.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 4.78 | 3.73 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 5.72 | 4.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 37.0°F | 43.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 34.0°F | 32.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 36.0°F | 35.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 34.0°F | 32.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 36.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 44.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 31.0°F | 30.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 37.0°F | 35.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |