Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.19 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.65 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.67 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.71 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.79 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.79 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.82 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.97 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.98 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.04 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.13 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.19 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.20 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.20 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.25 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.26 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.26 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.29 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.32 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.36 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.40 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.41 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.42 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.45 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.47 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.48 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.50 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.53 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.53 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.53 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.53 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.56 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.58 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.61 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.70 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.73 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.76 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.79 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.80 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.87 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.23 | -2.66 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.28 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.48 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.52 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.53 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.55 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.70 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.82 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 4.05 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 4.16 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 41.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |