Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.40 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 1.49 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.60 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.60 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 1.86 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.90 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 1.93 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 1.98 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.07 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.13 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.14 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.15 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.15 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.17 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.19 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.20 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.23 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.31 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.40 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.50 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.51 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.55 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.56 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.57 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 2.61 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.63 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 2.68 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.69 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.69 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.69 | -2.40 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.76 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.77 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.81 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.84 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.87 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.88 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.92 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.92 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.95 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.97 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.05 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.12 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 3.15 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 3.20 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.24 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 3.61 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 3.73 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.97 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 4.00 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |