Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1353
64992 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.54°
1304 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 08:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 25 0.80 0.24 13.0
Raleigh NC 26 0.81 -0.19 13.5
Baton Rouge LA 27 0.96 0.81 14.0
Columbus OH 25 0.96 0.16 13.0
Tallahassee FL 27 1.19 0.30 14.0
Juneau AK 27 1.22 0.70 14.0
Annapolis MD 27 1.30 -0.85 14.0
Honolulu HI 27 1.37 0.63 14.0
Indianapolis IN 27 1.48 0.30 14.0
Oklahoma City OK 25 1.48 -1.00 13.0
Nashville TN 25 1.48 -0.76 13.0
Jefferson City MO 26 1.54 0.46 13.5
Cheyenne WY 25 1.56 0.92 13.0
Frankfort KY 27 1.59 0.26 14.0
Trenton NJ 26 1.69 0.92 13.5
Harrisburg PA 25 1.80 0.92 13.0
Jackson MS 26 1.81 0.04 13.5
Bismarck ND 26 1.81 1.81 13.5
Little Rock AR 27 1.85 -0.15 14.0
Sacramento CA 27 1.93 -1.48 14.0
Lansing MI 26 1.96 1.65 13.5
Salt Lake City UT 25 1.96 1.32 13.0
Salem OR 25 2.00 1.36 13.0
Topeka KS 27 2.04 1.96 14.0
Atlanta GA 27 2.15 -1.56 14.0
Charleston WV 25 2.16 2.16 13.0
Madison WI 25 2.16 1.36 13.0
Des Moines IA 27 2.19 0.56 14.0
Springfield IL 27 2.30 1.93 14.0
Pierre SD 25 2.36 2.28 13.0
Montgomery AL 27 2.48 0.33 14.0
Dover DE 27 2.59 -0.07 14.0
Santa Fe NM 26 2.62 -1.23 13.5
Lincoln NE 26 2.77 2.77 13.5
Saint Paul MN 26 2.85 2.77 13.5
Hartford CT 27 2.96 1.26 14.0
Columbia SC 25 2.96 -2.96 13.0
Austin TX 25 3.52 3.52 13.0
Providence RI 25 3.56 3.40 13.0
Helena MT 26 3.62 2.92 13.5
Boston MA 27 3.70 3.56 14.0
Olympia WA 25 3.76 0.08 13.0
Denver CO 27 3.89 3.89 14.0
Boise ID 27 4.19 3.22 14.0
Augusta ME 26 5.08 4.15 13.5
Carson City NV 26 5.08 4.31 13.5
Albany NY 26 5.08 2.92 13.5
Phoenix AZ 27 5.30 4.26 14.0
Montpelier VT 25 5.60 3.12 13.0
Concord NH 26 5.62 4.46 13.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 03:00 MDT Denver CO 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 27.0
2026-07-14 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 03:00 MDT Boise ID 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT Boston MA 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT Montgomery AL 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 00:00 AKDT Juneau AK 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 01:00 MST Phoenix AZ 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 01:00 PDT Sacramento CA 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 02:00 MDT Denver CO 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Hartford CT 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Dover DE 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 26.0
2026-07-14 22:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 02:00 MDT Boise ID 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT Springfield IL 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT Des Moines IA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT Topeka KS 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Frankfort KY 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Augusta ME 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT Annapolis MD 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 26.0