Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.52 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.82 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.84 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 1.91 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 1.98 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.04 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.06 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.12 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.13 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.17 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.20 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.22 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.23 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.24 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.25 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.29 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.29 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.31 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.36 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.43 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.52 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.54 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.58 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.60 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.60 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.61 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.67 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.69 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.70 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.70 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.72 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.76 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.77 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.83 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.83 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.86 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.86 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 2.92 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.97 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.11 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 3.19 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 3.24 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.24 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.44 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.55 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 3.61 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.67 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 3.68 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.80 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 46.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |