Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.26 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 1.38 | -0.55 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 1.96 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.99 | 0.51 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.99 | -0.98 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.05 | -0.24 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.08 | 0.40 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.09 | 0.49 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.24 | -0.40 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.24 | 0.71 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.24 | -0.70 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.26 | 0.20 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.28 | -0.19 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.30 | 0.53 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.36 | -0.57 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.38 | -0.96 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.40 | 1.36 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.42 | 0.81 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.46 | 0.62 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.52 | -0.35 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.52 | -1.00 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.54 | -0.14 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.59 | -1.17 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.66 | 1.19 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.68 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.70 | 1.09 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.70 | 0.12 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.71 | 1.49 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.72 | -0.56 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.73 | -2.03 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.79 | -1.81 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.84 | 0.44 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.86 | 1.02 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.86 | 1.61 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.87 | 1.03 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.90 | 0.96 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.98 | -0.51 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.04 | -1.10 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.04 | 2.15 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.07 | 1.60 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.11 | 0.65 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 3.15 | -2.43 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.17 | -0.01 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 3.24 | -2.42 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 3.32 | -0.84 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 3.33 | -2.21 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.37 | -0.85 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.42 | 2.29 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.56 | -1.04 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.76 | 0.22 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 MST | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Dover DE | 48.0°F | 56.0°F | -8.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 MST | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Springfield IL | 40.0°F | 32.0°F | +8.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 38.0°F | +9.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 49.0°F | 57.0°F | -8.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Jackson MS | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 41.0°F | +6.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 PST | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 32.0°F | +7.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Columbus OH | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 EST | Columbia SC | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |