Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.24 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.75 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.92 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.09 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.16 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.28 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.29 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.38 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.48 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.48 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.50 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.53 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.54 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.54 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.62 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.63 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.65 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.68 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.70 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.70 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.70 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.80 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.82 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.84 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.84 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.88 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.89 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.94 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.96 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.96 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.97 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.99 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.03 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 3.08 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.09 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.10 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 3.11 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.15 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.29 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.37 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.51 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.61 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.76 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 3.89 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.90 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 4.01 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 4.42 | 2.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 4.47 | 4.24 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 4.75 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 5.63 | 4.31 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |