Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.35 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 1.84 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 1.85 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.85 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.94 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.17 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.42 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.43 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.48 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.51 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.53 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.53 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.54 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.57 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.60 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.62 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.63 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.65 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.66 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.66 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.67 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.69 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.73 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.74 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.81 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.84 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.94 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.01 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 3.07 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.08 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.17 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.19 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.24 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 3.24 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.26 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.28 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.30 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.31 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.41 | -2.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.47 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.55 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.72 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 3.74 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.79 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 3.82 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.91 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 3.95 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 4.06 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.50 | 3.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 5.54 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 64.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 35.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 50.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |