Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 185 | 1.74 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 1.86 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.89 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.97 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.99 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.01 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.08 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.12 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.12 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.13 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.18 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.21 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.22 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.23 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.27 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.27 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.29 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.30 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.38 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.39 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.43 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.46 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.48 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.49 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.49 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.51 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.57 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.58 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.60 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.63 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.65 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.65 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.67 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.72 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.74 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.90 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.92 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.98 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.98 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.00 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.10 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 3.11 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.34 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 3.38 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 3.39 | 3.14 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.63 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 3.64 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.70 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.91 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.97 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 33.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 69.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |