Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.16 | -0.43 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.87 | 0.02 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.90 | -0.32 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.94 | -1.34 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.04 | 0.56 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.10 | -0.29 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.11 | 0.10 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.12 | -0.25 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.14 | -0.26 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.18 | 0.89 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.38 | 0.09 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.41 | 0.30 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.46 | -0.37 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.46 | -0.71 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.51 | -1.75 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.56 | -1.44 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.58 | -2.41 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.59 | -1.29 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.61 | 0.14 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.66 | 1.22 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.66 | 0.28 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.67 | -0.22 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.68 | -1.41 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.70 | 0.05 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.74 | 0.02 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.78 | -0.26 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.78 | -1.70 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 2.78 | 1.85 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.78 | -0.45 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.79 | -1.15 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.79 | 0.69 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.84 | 1.56 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.87 | -0.71 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.96 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.96 | -1.15 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.97 | 0.65 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.97 | 0.59 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.99 | -0.73 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 3.02 | -2.25 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.06 | -1.10 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.07 | 2.03 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.08 | 1.24 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.11 | 0.66 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.12 | 1.50 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 3.17 | -1.87 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.23 | 0.52 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 3.46 | 1.09 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.71 | 0.53 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 4.11 | -1.61 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 4.13 | 3.30 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 11:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 12:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 MST | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 MST | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 70.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 MST | Helena MT | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 12:00 PST | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 12:00 PST | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 EST | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |