Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 190 | 1.50 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.55 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 1.65 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.82 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.82 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.83 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 1.87 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.02 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.04 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.04 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.06 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.07 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.09 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.15 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.17 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.26 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.28 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.28 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.29 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.43 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.48 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.54 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.54 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.54 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.55 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.56 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 2.56 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.64 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.68 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.70 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.71 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.74 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.74 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.79 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.83 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.83 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.84 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.92 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.97 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.99 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 3.03 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.03 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.09 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.22 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.41 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 3.55 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 3.56 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.76 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.83 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 67.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 77.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 77.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |