Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 16 | 0.75 | -0.38 | 8.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 16 | 0.81 | -0.06 | 8.5 |
| Columbus OH | 15 | 0.93 | 0.27 | 8.0 |
| Richmond VA | 15 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 8.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 15 | 1.00 | -0.07 | 8.0 |
| Pierre SD | 15 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 8.0 |
| Juneau AK | 16 | 1.13 | 0.38 | 8.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 16 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 8.5 |
| Nashville TN | 15 | 1.13 | -0.20 | 8.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 16 | 1.19 | 0.81 | 8.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 16 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 8.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 16 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 8.5 |
| Charleston WV | 15 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 8.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 16 | 1.63 | -1.00 | 8.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 16 | 1.63 | 1.25 | 8.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 16 | 1.69 | 1.56 | 8.5 |
| Columbia SC | 15 | 1.73 | -1.73 | 8.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 15 | 1.73 | 0.93 | 8.0 |
| Madison WI | 15 | 1.73 | 0.40 | 8.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 16 | 1.75 | 0.63 | 8.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 16 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 8.5 |
| Springfield IL | 16 | 1.81 | 1.19 | 8.5 |
| Jackson MS | 16 | 1.81 | 1.19 | 8.5 |
| Topeka KS | 16 | 1.88 | 1.75 | 8.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 15 | 1.93 | -1.40 | 8.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 16 | 2.00 | 1.63 | 8.5 |
| Salem OR | 15 | 2.07 | 1.00 | 8.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 16 | 2.13 | -2.13 | 8.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 15 | 2.13 | 1.33 | 8.0 |
| Helena MT | 16 | 2.19 | 1.06 | 8.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 16 | 2.19 | 1.44 | 8.5 |
| Lansing MI | 16 | 2.38 | 2.00 | 8.5 |
| Providence RI | 15 | 2.60 | 2.33 | 8.0 |
| Dover DE | 16 | 2.69 | 1.56 | 8.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 16 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 8.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 16 | 2.88 | 1.75 | 8.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 16 | 3.00 | -2.13 | 8.5 |
| Hartford CT | 16 | 3.06 | 1.94 | 8.5 |
| Boston MA | 16 | 3.19 | 2.94 | 8.5 |
| Austin TX | 15 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 8.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 16 | 3.44 | -1.19 | 8.5 |
| Carson City NV | 16 | 4.13 | 3.25 | 8.5 |
| Denver CO | 16 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 8.5 |
| Boise ID | 16 | 4.88 | 3.25 | 8.5 |
| Olympia WA | 15 | 5.00 | 1.13 | 8.0 |
| Concord NH | 16 | 5.50 | 3.63 | 8.5 |
| Augusta ME | 16 | 5.56 | 5.44 | 8.5 |
| Albany NY | 16 | 5.56 | 4.44 | 8.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 15 | 6.87 | 6.20 | 8.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 16 | 7.81 | 7.81 | 8.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 73.0°F | +9.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 108.0°F | 103.0°F | +5.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 101.0°F | -3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 95.0°F | 93.0°F | +2.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 91.0°F | 79.0°F | +12.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 95.0°F | 89.0°F | +6.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 97.0°F | 94.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 89.0°F | 82.0°F | +7.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 77.0°F | +6.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 95.0°F | 88.0°F | +7.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 94.0°F | 90.0°F | +4.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 99.0°F | 98.0°F | +1.0° | 16.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 93.0°F | 91.0°F | +2.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 15.0 |