Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.35 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.61 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.76 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.95 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.02 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.23 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.24 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.26 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.26 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.30 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.31 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.36 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.38 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.40 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.43 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.45 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.51 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.51 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.57 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.58 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.69 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.69 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.70 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.72 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.72 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.77 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.82 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.86 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.89 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.91 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.94 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.95 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.96 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.14 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 3.17 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.23 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.25 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.26 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.28 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.47 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.50 | -3.05 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.53 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.53 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.68 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.72 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 3.93 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 4.04 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 4.18 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 4.22 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 52.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 89.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 33.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |