Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
533
25632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
1.97°
484 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-14 16:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Providence RI 9 0.67 0.22 5.0
Honolulu HI 10 0.70 0.30 5.5
Annapolis MD 10 0.70 -0.10 5.5
Pierre SD 9 0.78 0.56 5.0
Nashville TN 9 0.78 -0.78 5.0
Richmond VA 9 0.78 0.11 5.0
Raleigh NC 10 0.80 -0.80 5.5
Boston MA 10 0.90 0.50 5.5
Juneau AK 10 1.00 1.00 5.5
Topeka KS 10 1.00 0.80 5.5
Frankfort KY 10 1.00 0.20 5.5
Jefferson City MO 10 1.00 0.40 5.5
Columbus OH 9 1.00 0.11 5.0
Salt Lake City UT 9 1.00 -0.33 5.0
Tallahassee FL 10 1.10 0.10 5.5
Des Moines IA 10 1.10 0.50 5.5
Baton Rouge LA 10 1.10 0.70 5.5
Saint Paul MN 10 1.10 0.90 5.5
Salem OR 9 1.11 -0.67 5.0
Cheyenne WY 9 1.11 -0.67 5.0
Jackson MS 10 1.20 0.80 5.5
Hartford CT 10 1.30 -0.50 5.5
Indianapolis IN 10 1.30 -0.50 5.5
Trenton NJ 10 1.30 0.10 5.5
Springfield IL 10 1.40 0.40 5.5
Lansing MI 10 1.40 0.80 5.5
Helena MT 10 1.40 -0.40 5.5
Montgomery AL 10 1.50 0.10 5.5
Harrisburg PA 9 1.56 0.22 5.0
Charleston WV 9 1.56 1.56 5.0
Madison WI 9 1.56 -0.67 5.0
Columbia SC 9 1.78 -1.78 5.0
Bismarck ND 10 1.80 1.80 5.5
Little Rock AR 10 2.00 -2.00 5.5
Oklahoma City OK 9 2.00 -1.11 5.0
Austin TX 9 2.11 2.11 5.0
Boise ID 10 2.50 -0.10 5.5
Lincoln NE 10 2.50 2.50 5.5
Sacramento CA 10 2.60 -2.60 5.5
Dover DE 10 2.60 0.80 5.5
Augusta ME 10 2.70 2.50 5.5
Santa Fe NM 10 2.70 -2.50 5.5
Atlanta GA 10 3.20 -3.20 5.5
Concord NH 10 3.50 0.50 5.5
Carson City NV 10 3.70 3.50 5.5
Albany NY 10 4.30 2.50 5.5
Denver CO 10 4.40 4.40 5.5
Montpelier VT 9 4.89 3.78 5.0
Olympia WA 9 5.78 4.44 5.0
Phoenix AZ 10 8.70 8.70 5.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MST Phoenix AZ 97.0°F 89.0°F +8.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Little Rock AR 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT Sacramento CA 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT Denver CO 81.0°F 69.0°F +12.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Hartford CT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Dover DE 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 06:00 HST Honolulu HI 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 73.0°F +7.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Des Moines IA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Topeka KS 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Frankfort KY 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Augusta ME 86.0°F 80.0°F +6.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Annapolis MD 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Boston MA 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Lansing MI 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT Helena MT 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Lincoln NE 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT Carson City NV 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Concord NH 90.0°F 80.0°F +10.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Trenton NJ 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Albany NY 92.0°F 82.0°F +10.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Raleigh NC 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Bismarck ND 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Columbus OH 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT Salem OR 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Providence RI 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT Columbia SC 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 9.0