Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.36 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 1.75 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.89 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.96 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 1.98 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.11 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.22 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.32 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.35 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.39 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.39 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.42 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.44 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.46 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.56 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.56 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.58 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.64 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.68 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.70 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.71 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 2.72 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.74 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.80 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 2.83 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.84 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.91 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.91 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.94 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.97 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.99 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.99 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 3.01 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.12 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.16 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 3.19 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.20 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 3.21 | -2.76 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.21 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.44 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.48 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.53 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.54 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.54 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.63 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 3.69 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.78 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.86 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 4.04 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 4.23 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 89.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 71.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 88.0°F | 75.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |