Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.24 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.79 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.87 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.92 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.10 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.14 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.27 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.33 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.43 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.45 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.46 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.49 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.53 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.60 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.64 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.66 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.70 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.71 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.71 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.75 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.81 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.85 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.88 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.92 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.96 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.99 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.99 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.01 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 3.01 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.02 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.05 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 3.06 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.07 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.09 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.16 | 2.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.18 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.26 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 3.26 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 3.46 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.48 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.58 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.64 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.94 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.98 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 4.11 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 4.23 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 4.37 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 4.92 | 4.71 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 5.10 | 4.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 5.86 | 3.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 70.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 39.0°F | 31.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 32.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 38.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 63.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |