Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.23 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.56 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.95 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.05 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.12 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.28 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.37 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.41 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.51 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.53 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.54 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.54 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.58 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.64 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.64 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.68 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.68 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.70 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.72 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.73 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.80 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.81 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.88 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.93 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.94 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.96 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.96 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.98 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.00 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.04 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 3.04 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.08 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 3.11 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.11 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.14 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 3.15 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 3.15 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.17 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.30 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.38 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.56 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 3.74 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.94 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 4.04 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 4.08 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 4.12 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 4.69 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 4.83 | 4.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 4.96 | 3.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 5.91 | 4.51 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 67.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |