Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 168 | 1.39 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 168 | 1.65 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 168 | 1.78 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 168 | 1.98 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 168 | 2.02 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 168 | 2.07 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 168 | 2.14 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 168 | 2.20 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.22 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 168 | 2.30 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 168 | 2.31 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 168 | 2.35 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 168 | 2.36 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.41 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 168 | 2.48 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 168 | 2.49 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 168 | 2.55 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 168 | 2.55 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.65 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 168 | 2.65 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 168 | 2.65 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 168 | 2.74 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 168 | 2.74 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.79 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 168 | 2.80 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 168 | 2.84 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 168 | 2.90 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 168 | 2.96 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 168 | 2.99 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 3.01 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 168 | 3.01 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 168 | 3.01 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 168 | 3.07 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 168 | 3.11 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 168 | 3.13 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 168 | 3.19 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 168 | 3.20 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.22 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 168 | 3.38 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 168 | 3.40 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 168 | 3.47 | -3.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 168 | 3.51 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 168 | 3.51 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 168 | 3.54 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 168 | 3.61 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 168 | 3.90 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 168 | 4.10 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 168 | 4.12 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 168 | 4.17 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 168 | 4.29 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 32.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |