Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 45 | 0.91 | 0.56 | 23.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 45 | 1.02 | -0.18 | 23.0 |
| Columbus OH | 44 | 1.20 | 0.75 | 22.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 45 | 1.27 | -0.24 | 23.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 45 | 1.27 | -0.38 | 23.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 45 | 1.27 | 0.51 | 23.0 |
| Jackson MS | 45 | 1.47 | -0.04 | 23.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 44 | 1.50 | 0.32 | 22.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 45 | 1.53 | 0.78 | 23.0 |
| Juneau AK | 45 | 1.67 | 1.27 | 23.0 |
| Richmond VA | 44 | 1.73 | 1.23 | 22.5 |
| Nashville TN | 44 | 1.77 | 0.14 | 22.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 44 | 1.84 | 0.84 | 22.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 45 | 1.89 | 0.78 | 23.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 44 | 1.89 | 0.61 | 22.5 |
| Madison WI | 44 | 1.95 | 1.45 | 22.5 |
| Salem OR | 44 | 2.00 | 1.36 | 22.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 45 | 2.02 | 1.04 | 23.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 45 | 2.04 | 0.22 | 23.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 45 | 2.04 | 0.93 | 23.0 |
| Lansing MI | 45 | 2.04 | 1.56 | 23.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 45 | 2.16 | -1.49 | 23.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 45 | 2.18 | 0.71 | 23.0 |
| Topeka KS | 45 | 2.24 | 2.20 | 23.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 45 | 2.31 | 2.31 | 23.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 44 | 2.34 | 0.11 | 22.5 |
| Springfield IL | 45 | 2.40 | 1.96 | 23.0 |
| Dover DE | 45 | 2.49 | 0.31 | 23.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 45 | 2.51 | -2.16 | 23.0 |
| Pierre SD | 44 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 22.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 45 | 2.58 | 2.04 | 23.0 |
| Boise ID | 45 | 3.02 | 2.31 | 23.0 |
| Helena MT | 45 | 3.09 | 1.98 | 23.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 45 | 3.16 | 2.93 | 23.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 45 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 23.0 |
| Olympia WA | 44 | 3.25 | -0.66 | 22.5 |
| Charleston WV | 44 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 22.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 45 | 3.27 | -1.71 | 23.0 |
| Denver CO | 45 | 3.33 | 2.80 | 23.0 |
| Columbia SC | 44 | 3.52 | -3.52 | 22.5 |
| Hartford CT | 45 | 3.73 | 2.62 | 23.0 |
| Augusta ME | 45 | 3.78 | 2.27 | 23.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 45 | 3.98 | 2.47 | 23.0 |
| Austin TX | 44 | 4.27 | 4.23 | 22.5 |
| Carson City NV | 45 | 4.42 | 3.84 | 23.0 |
| Boston MA | 45 | 4.71 | 4.49 | 23.0 |
| Providence RI | 44 | 4.75 | 4.66 | 22.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 44 | 5.18 | 3.27 | 22.5 |
| Concord NH | 45 | 5.24 | 4.31 | 23.0 |
| Albany NY | 45 | 6.22 | 4.53 | 23.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 44.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 44.0 |