Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
2283
109632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.67°
2234 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-16 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 45 0.91 0.56 23.0
Raleigh NC 45 1.02 -0.18 23.0
Columbus OH 44 1.20 0.75 22.5
Tallahassee FL 45 1.27 -0.24 23.0
Annapolis MD 45 1.27 -0.38 23.0
Jefferson City MO 45 1.27 0.51 23.0
Jackson MS 45 1.47 -0.04 23.0
Cheyenne WY 44 1.50 0.32 22.5
Honolulu HI 45 1.53 0.78 23.0
Juneau AK 45 1.67 1.27 23.0
Richmond VA 44 1.73 1.23 22.5
Nashville TN 44 1.77 0.14 22.5
Harrisburg PA 44 1.84 0.84 22.5
Frankfort KY 45 1.89 0.78 23.0
Salt Lake City UT 44 1.89 0.61 22.5
Madison WI 44 1.95 1.45 22.5
Salem OR 44 2.00 1.36 22.5
Indianapolis IN 45 2.02 1.04 23.0
Montgomery AL 45 2.04 0.22 23.0
Des Moines IA 45 2.04 0.93 23.0
Lansing MI 45 2.04 1.56 23.0
Sacramento CA 45 2.16 -1.49 23.0
Little Rock AR 45 2.18 0.71 23.0
Topeka KS 45 2.24 2.20 23.0
Bismarck ND 45 2.31 2.31 23.0
Oklahoma City OK 44 2.34 0.11 22.5
Springfield IL 45 2.40 1.96 23.0
Dover DE 45 2.49 0.31 23.0
Atlanta GA 45 2.51 -2.16 23.0
Pierre SD 44 2.55 2.50 22.5
Trenton NJ 45 2.58 2.04 23.0
Boise ID 45 3.02 2.31 23.0
Helena MT 45 3.09 1.98 23.0
Saint Paul MN 45 3.16 2.93 23.0
Lincoln NE 45 3.22 3.22 23.0
Olympia WA 44 3.25 -0.66 22.5
Charleston WV 44 3.25 3.25 22.5
Santa Fe NM 45 3.27 -1.71 23.0
Denver CO 45 3.33 2.80 23.0
Columbia SC 44 3.52 -3.52 22.5
Hartford CT 45 3.73 2.62 23.0
Augusta ME 45 3.78 2.27 23.0
Phoenix AZ 45 3.98 2.47 23.0
Austin TX 44 4.27 4.23 22.5
Carson City NV 45 4.42 3.84 23.0
Boston MA 45 4.71 4.49 23.0
Providence RI 44 4.75 4.66 22.5
Montpelier VT 44 5.18 3.27 22.5
Concord NH 45 5.24 4.31 23.0
Albany NY 45 6.22 4.53 23.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 92.0°F 86.0°F +6.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT Denver CO 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Dover DE 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT Boise ID 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Boston MA 80.0°F 74.0°F +6.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT Helena MT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Concord NH 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 69.0°F 65.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Albany NY 75.0°F 71.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 20:00 PDT Salem OR 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Providence RI 79.0°F 76.0°F +3.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 44.0