Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 28 | 0.86 | 0.07 | 14.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 29 | 0.93 | 0.03 | 15.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 29 | 0.97 | 0.76 | 15.0 |
| Columbus OH | 28 | 1.07 | 0.36 | 14.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 29 | 1.10 | 0.28 | 15.0 |
| Juneau AK | 29 | 1.21 | 0.72 | 15.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 29 | 1.24 | -0.83 | 15.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 29 | 1.38 | 0.69 | 15.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 28 | 1.39 | -0.96 | 14.5 |
| Nashville TN | 28 | 1.39 | -0.75 | 14.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 29 | 1.45 | 0.21 | 15.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 29 | 1.45 | 0.41 | 15.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 29 | 1.52 | 0.21 | 15.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 28 | 1.54 | 0.75 | 14.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 29 | 1.55 | 0.79 | 15.0 |
| Jackson MS | 29 | 1.69 | -0.03 | 15.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 28 | 1.79 | 0.64 | 14.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 28 | 1.82 | 1.11 | 14.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 29 | 1.83 | -0.24 | 15.0 |
| Lansing MI | 29 | 1.86 | 1.38 | 15.0 |
| Salem OR | 28 | 1.96 | 1.11 | 14.5 |
| Topeka KS | 29 | 1.97 | 1.90 | 15.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 29 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 15.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 29 | 2.00 | -1.59 | 15.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 29 | 2.07 | 0.55 | 15.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 29 | 2.21 | -1.66 | 15.0 |
| Madison WI | 28 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 14.5 |
| Springfield IL | 29 | 2.38 | 2.03 | 15.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 29 | 2.45 | 0.17 | 15.0 |
| Charleston WV | 28 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 14.5 |
| Dover DE | 29 | 2.48 | -0.14 | 15.0 |
| Pierre SD | 28 | 2.57 | 2.50 | 14.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 29 | 2.62 | -1.38 | 15.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 29 | 2.79 | 2.72 | 15.0 |
| Hartford CT | 29 | 2.83 | 1.17 | 15.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 29 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 15.0 |
| Columbia SC | 28 | 3.11 | -3.11 | 14.5 |
| Austin TX | 28 | 3.18 | 3.18 | 14.5 |
| Providence RI | 28 | 3.54 | 3.39 | 14.5 |
| Olympia WA | 28 | 3.54 | 0.25 | 14.5 |
| Boston MA | 29 | 3.55 | 3.21 | 15.0 |
| Helena MT | 29 | 3.55 | 2.93 | 15.0 |
| Denver CO | 29 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 15.0 |
| Boise ID | 29 | 4.03 | 3.14 | 15.0 |
| Albany NY | 29 | 4.83 | 2.34 | 15.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 29 | 5.07 | 3.83 | 15.0 |
| Augusta ME | 29 | 5.07 | 3.21 | 15.0 |
| Concord NH | 29 | 5.24 | 3.79 | 15.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 28 | 5.29 | 2.50 | 14.5 |
| Carson City NV | 29 | 5.45 | 4.76 | 15.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 54.0°F | +9.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 29.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 28.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 28.0 |