Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 1.46 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 1.71 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.73 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.81 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 1.84 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 1.91 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.93 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 1.99 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.01 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.09 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.10 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 2.10 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.10 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.16 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.25 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 2.26 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.27 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.28 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.30 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.39 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.43 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.45 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.52 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.52 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.52 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.55 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.63 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.64 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.68 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.73 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.74 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.77 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.78 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.89 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.89 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.93 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.99 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.01 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.01 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 3.05 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.15 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.16 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.16 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 3.39 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.47 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.49 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.52 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.53 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.74 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 4.26 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 58.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-30 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |