Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.54 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.81 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 1.81 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.83 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 1.85 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 1.88 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.88 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.89 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.96 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.12 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.15 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.15 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.16 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.18 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.18 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.25 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.27 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.30 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.37 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.39 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.39 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.40 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.42 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.43 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.45 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.47 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.54 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.57 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.59 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.64 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.65 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.71 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.73 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.73 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.75 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.80 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.85 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 3.02 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.04 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.13 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.33 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.35 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 3.41 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.50 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.51 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.53 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.55 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.66 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.92 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 4.24 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 87.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 68.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 92.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |