Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 184 | 0.93 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.64 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.66 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.68 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.69 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.73 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.86 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.92 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.94 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.98 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.02 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.05 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.09 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.18 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.20 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.20 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.27 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.33 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.34 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.40 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.45 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.47 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.48 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.49 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.51 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.53 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.55 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.56 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.66 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.66 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.67 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.77 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.81 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.83 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.84 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.85 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.89 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.89 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.93 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.98 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.27 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.29 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.33 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.50 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.59 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.64 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.66 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.67 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.88 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 4.21 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |