Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.71 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 1.78 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 1.85 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.93 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.94 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.03 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.04 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.09 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.11 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.13 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.16 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.16 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.17 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.18 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.26 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.28 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.28 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.34 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.36 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.37 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.39 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.41 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.44 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.46 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.47 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.52 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.61 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.63 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.66 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.66 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.68 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.69 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.71 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.72 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.80 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.85 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.93 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.99 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.01 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.02 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 3.05 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.10 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.12 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 3.33 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 3.42 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.59 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.65 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 3.73 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.89 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.92 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 34.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 70.0°F | -12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 38.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 47.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |