Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 31 | 0.84 | 0.13 | 16.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 32 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 16.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 32 | 1.03 | -0.16 | 16.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 32 | 1.06 | 0.25 | 16.5 |
| Columbus OH | 31 | 1.13 | 0.48 | 16.0 |
| Juneau AK | 32 | 1.16 | 0.72 | 16.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 32 | 1.28 | -0.66 | 16.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 32 | 1.38 | 0.44 | 16.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 32 | 1.44 | 0.06 | 16.5 |
| Nashville TN | 31 | 1.45 | -0.87 | 16.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 32 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 16.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 32 | 1.50 | 0.06 | 16.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 31 | 1.52 | 0.55 | 16.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 32 | 1.53 | 0.78 | 16.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 31 | 1.58 | -1.19 | 16.0 |
| Jackson MS | 32 | 1.66 | -0.16 | 16.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 31 | 1.77 | 0.42 | 16.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 32 | 1.84 | -0.22 | 16.5 |
| Lansing MI | 32 | 1.84 | 1.16 | 16.5 |
| Salem OR | 31 | 1.87 | 1.10 | 16.0 |
| Topeka KS | 32 | 1.88 | 1.81 | 16.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 32 | 1.91 | 0.47 | 16.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 31 | 2.00 | 0.65 | 16.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 32 | 2.06 | -1.69 | 16.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 32 | 2.06 | 2.06 | 16.5 |
| Madison WI | 31 | 2.13 | 1.48 | 16.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 32 | 2.25 | 0.13 | 16.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 32 | 2.25 | -1.75 | 16.5 |
| Springfield IL | 32 | 2.34 | 1.78 | 16.5 |
| Dover DE | 32 | 2.53 | 0.16 | 16.5 |
| Pierre SD | 31 | 2.58 | 2.52 | 16.0 |
| Hartford CT | 32 | 2.63 | 1.06 | 16.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 32 | 2.69 | -1.56 | 16.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 32 | 2.72 | 2.41 | 16.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 32 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 16.5 |
| Charleston WV | 31 | 2.87 | 2.87 | 16.0 |
| Austin TX | 31 | 2.94 | 2.87 | 16.0 |
| Columbia SC | 31 | 3.32 | -3.32 | 16.0 |
| Olympia WA | 31 | 3.32 | 0.35 | 16.0 |
| Helena MT | 32 | 3.47 | 2.91 | 16.5 |
| Providence RI | 31 | 3.48 | 3.35 | 16.0 |
| Boston MA | 32 | 3.53 | 3.22 | 16.5 |
| Denver CO | 32 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 16.5 |
| Boise ID | 32 | 3.75 | 2.75 | 16.5 |
| Albany NY | 32 | 4.50 | 2.13 | 16.5 |
| Augusta ME | 32 | 4.78 | 2.72 | 16.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 32 | 4.81 | 3.25 | 16.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 31 | 4.94 | 2.23 | 16.0 |
| Concord NH | 32 | 4.97 | 3.66 | 16.5 |
| Carson City NV | 32 | 5.69 | 5.06 | 16.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 32.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 31.0 |