Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.37 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.70 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.82 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.97 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.01 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.18 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.18 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.30 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.32 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.35 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.41 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.41 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.43 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.43 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.49 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.56 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.57 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.65 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.67 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.69 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.70 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.74 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.74 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.75 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.82 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.85 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.86 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.95 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.98 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.00 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.02 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.02 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.05 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.09 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.09 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.11 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.18 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.23 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.39 | -2.96 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.39 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.47 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.47 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.48 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.49 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.62 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 3.93 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 4.00 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 4.02 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.18 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 4.24 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 31.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |