Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.57 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.69 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 1.76 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 1.79 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.79 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.85 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 1.87 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.98 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.06 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.08 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.08 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.13 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 2.16 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.17 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.18 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.30 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.31 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.33 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.38 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.40 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.41 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.45 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.46 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.48 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.49 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.59 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.59 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.61 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.64 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.66 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.68 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.72 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.73 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.75 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.82 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.84 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.99 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 3.04 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 3.18 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.18 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.26 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.38 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.45 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.48 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.55 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.56 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.58 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.80 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 4.19 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 45.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |