Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.82 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.87 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.94 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.96 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 1.98 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.02 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.09 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.09 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.15 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.16 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.18 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.21 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.22 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.26 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.28 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.28 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.29 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.35 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.36 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.39 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.45 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.47 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.49 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.49 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.53 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.53 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.54 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.57 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.58 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.62 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.65 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.65 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 2.67 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.69 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.84 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.89 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.91 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.92 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.94 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.04 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.16 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.23 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.28 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 3.32 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.34 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.58 | 2.43 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 3.62 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.66 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.85 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 4.04 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 91.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 70.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 72.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |