Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.16 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.62 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.66 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.69 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.77 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.78 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.78 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.93 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 1.97 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.04 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.15 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.16 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.20 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.23 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.23 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.25 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.28 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.29 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.32 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.33 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.37 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.39 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.42 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.45 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.48 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.49 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.52 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.54 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.56 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.56 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.56 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.57 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.58 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.62 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.69 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.74 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.76 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.78 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.84 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.05 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.14 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.47 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.48 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.48 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.49 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.64 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.69 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.78 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.93 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 4.07 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 95.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 80.0°F | 67.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 78.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |