Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 19 | 0.79 | -0.47 | 10.0 |
| Columbus OH | 18 | 0.83 | 0.28 | 9.5 |
| Richmond VA | 18 | 0.83 | 0.39 | 9.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 19 | 0.84 | -0.21 | 10.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 19 | 1.05 | 0.84 | 10.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 19 | 1.11 | 0.68 | 10.0 |
| Juneau AK | 19 | 1.16 | 0.42 | 10.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 18 | 1.22 | 0.33 | 9.5 |
| Nashville TN | 18 | 1.44 | -0.67 | 9.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 19 | 1.47 | 0.21 | 10.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 19 | 1.47 | 1.16 | 10.0 |
| Pierre SD | 18 | 1.50 | 1.39 | 9.5 |
| Charleston WV | 18 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 9.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 19 | 1.53 | 1.11 | 10.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 18 | 1.72 | -1.28 | 9.5 |
| Madison WI | 18 | 1.72 | 0.61 | 9.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 19 | 1.74 | 0.79 | 10.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 19 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 10.0 |
| Jackson MS | 19 | 1.79 | 0.74 | 10.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 19 | 1.84 | -0.58 | 10.0 |
| Springfield IL | 19 | 1.95 | 1.42 | 10.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 18 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 9.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 19 | 2.11 | 1.79 | 10.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 19 | 2.11 | 1.47 | 10.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 18 | 2.17 | 1.50 | 9.5 |
| Topeka KS | 19 | 2.21 | 2.11 | 10.0 |
| Salem OR | 18 | 2.22 | 1.33 | 9.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 19 | 2.26 | -2.26 | 10.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 19 | 2.26 | 2.16 | 10.0 |
| Columbia SC | 18 | 2.28 | -2.28 | 9.5 |
| Dover DE | 19 | 2.58 | 1.00 | 10.0 |
| Lansing MI | 19 | 2.58 | 2.26 | 10.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 19 | 2.63 | -1.79 | 10.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 19 | 2.95 | 1.05 | 10.0 |
| Hartford CT | 19 | 3.00 | 2.05 | 10.0 |
| Helena MT | 19 | 3.11 | 2.16 | 10.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 19 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 10.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 19 | 3.16 | -1.26 | 10.0 |
| Providence RI | 18 | 3.17 | 2.94 | 9.5 |
| Boston MA | 19 | 3.37 | 3.16 | 10.0 |
| Denver CO | 19 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 10.0 |
| Carson City NV | 19 | 3.95 | 2.89 | 10.0 |
| Austin TX | 18 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 9.5 |
| Boise ID | 19 | 4.58 | 3.21 | 10.0 |
| Olympia WA | 18 | 4.83 | 0.28 | 9.5 |
| Albany NY | 19 | 5.32 | 4.37 | 10.0 |
| Augusta ME | 19 | 6.05 | 5.95 | 10.0 |
| Concord NH | 19 | 6.05 | 4.47 | 10.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 18 | 6.33 | 5.78 | 9.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 19 | 6.79 | 6.79 | 10.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 106.0°F | +0.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 93.0°F | 92.0°F | +1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 89.0°F | 84.0°F | +5.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 18.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 18.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 18.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 18.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 18.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 18.0 |