Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
17983
863232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-29 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Honolulu HI 174 1.36 -0.83 48.0
Providence RI 174 1.44 -0.45 48.0
Augusta ME 174 1.79 -0.85 48.0
Boston MA 174 1.83 0.99 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 1.84 0.22 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 1.90 1.45 48.0
Jackson MS 174 1.90 1.27 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 1.93 0.09 48.0
Hartford CT 174 1.95 -0.43 48.0
Richmond VA 174 2.09 0.11 48.0
Concord NH 174 2.10 0.39 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.14 0.34 48.0
Charleston WV 174 2.20 0.25 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.22 0.57 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 2.22 -0.14 48.0
Albany NY 174 2.23 0.18 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.30 -0.02 48.0
Austin TX 174 2.32 1.91 48.0
Lansing MI 174 2.36 1.45 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.37 1.13 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.44 0.97 48.0
Columbus OH 174 2.45 1.99 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.51 0.52 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.56 0.37 48.0
Juneau AK 174 2.59 0.84 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 2.60 0.98 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.61 1.07 48.0
Des Moines IA 174 2.64 0.06 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 2.64 -0.64 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.67 2.17 48.0
Nashville TN 174 2.68 0.62 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 2.75 2.17 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 2.75 1.62 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.92 -0.89 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.98 -0.17 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 2.98 1.86 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 3.01 1.86 48.0
Madison WI 174 3.07 1.25 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 3.10 -0.41 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 3.13 1.07 48.0
Salem OR 174 3.14 1.71 48.0
Topeka KS 174 3.18 1.16 48.0
Olympia WA 174 3.18 -1.61 48.0
Boise ID 174 3.25 2.61 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.30 0.30 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.68 1.52 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 3.82 3.39 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 3.91 3.59 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 4.10 3.37 48.0
Pierre SD 174 4.31 3.18 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 101.0°F 100.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 23:00 MDT Denver CO 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 67.0°F 73.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Dover DE 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 23:00 MDT Boise ID 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Boston MA 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 23:00 MDT Helena MT 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Albany NY 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-28 22:00 PDT Salem OR 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Providence RI 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-29 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 82.0°F 88.0°F -6.0° 48.0