Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 174 | 1.03 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.44 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.55 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.61 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 1.83 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.84 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.91 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.97 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.08 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.12 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.13 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.15 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.15 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.15 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.16 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.16 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.21 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.25 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.26 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.27 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.34 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.34 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.39 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.43 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.46 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.52 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.52 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.56 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.59 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.70 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.79 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.91 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.96 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.97 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.99 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.01 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.03 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.05 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.05 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 3.15 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.18 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.24 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.25 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.30 | -3.21 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 3.42 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.50 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.67 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.89 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.93 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 51.0°F | -19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |