Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.23 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.40 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 1.57 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 1.69 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 1.89 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.96 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.98 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.01 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.07 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.08 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.08 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.15 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.16 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.18 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.19 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.20 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 2.23 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.24 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 2.27 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.32 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.34 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.34 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.35 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.38 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.39 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.44 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 2.50 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 2.56 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.64 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.71 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.73 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.82 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.85 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.91 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 2.91 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 2.91 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.93 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 2.95 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.01 | -2.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 3.02 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 3.13 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.19 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 3.19 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.32 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 3.46 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 3.70 | -2.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 3.70 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.71 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 3.77 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 4.56 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 85.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 70.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |