Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 192 | 1.21 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.64 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.65 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.78 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.80 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.82 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.84 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 1.96 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 1.99 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.05 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.05 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.08 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.16 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.16 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.17 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.26 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.28 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.33 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.39 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.40 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 2.42 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.42 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 2.43 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.44 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.44 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.45 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.50 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.52 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.53 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.53 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.54 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.54 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.56 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.58 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.63 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.71 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 2.72 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.78 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.79 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 2.84 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.08 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.37 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.41 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.54 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.65 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.66 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.68 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 3.78 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.84 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.90 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 99.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 75.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 73.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |