Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.36 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 1.76 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 1.94 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 2.05 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.08 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.08 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.19 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 2.34 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.36 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.37 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.40 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.45 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.47 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.49 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.52 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.55 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 2.57 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.58 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.59 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.72 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 192 | 2.80 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 2.82 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 2.83 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.84 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.88 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.89 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.98 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 3.01 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 3.04 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 3.08 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 3.14 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 3.14 | -2.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.15 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.16 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 3.20 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.28 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 3.30 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 3.33 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 3.48 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.54 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 3.54 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.61 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 3.67 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.90 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.90 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 4.07 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 4.29 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 4.64 | 4.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 4.99 | 4.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 6.12 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 51.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 59.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 83.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |