Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 180 | 1.21 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 1.43 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.68 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 1.79 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 1.81 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.85 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.86 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.91 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.92 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.08 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.09 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.12 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.18 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.23 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.25 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.27 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.27 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.28 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 2.34 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.34 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.37 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.41 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.41 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.43 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.44 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.45 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.46 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.47 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.49 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.49 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.60 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 2.61 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.64 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.68 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.68 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.71 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.78 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.80 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 2.90 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.17 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.21 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.32 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.54 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.62 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.69 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.70 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.71 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 4.02 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 4.02 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 45.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 50.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 38.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |