Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.34 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.82 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 1.85 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.86 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.94 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.18 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.40 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.45 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.46 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.51 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.52 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.53 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.57 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.59 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.61 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.61 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.64 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.66 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.67 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.68 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.69 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.73 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.75 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.81 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.84 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.93 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 3.01 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 3.04 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.07 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.17 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.22 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.24 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.28 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.30 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.31 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.36 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.38 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.55 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.55 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 3.74 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.76 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.80 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 3.84 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.92 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 3.95 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 4.08 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.49 | 3.78 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 5.65 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 37.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 60.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 35.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 48.0°F | +16.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 39.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 47.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |