Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.33 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.61 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.76 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.82 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 1.89 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.91 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.97 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.97 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.03 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.06 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.07 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.09 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.17 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.22 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.25 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.25 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.29 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.31 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.32 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.32 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.35 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.35 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.42 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.43 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.47 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.48 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.49 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.50 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.52 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.54 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.55 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.55 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.66 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.77 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.80 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.86 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.94 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 3.01 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.07 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.08 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.15 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.17 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.24 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 3.40 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.49 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.60 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.66 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.80 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.86 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.87 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |