Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.35 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.75 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.96 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.04 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.11 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.12 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.22 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.32 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.35 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.37 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.38 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.38 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.47 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.49 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.49 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.54 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.54 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.56 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.61 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.77 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.77 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.77 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.83 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.87 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.89 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.89 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.91 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 3.01 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.04 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.11 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.13 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.15 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.19 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.19 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.23 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.34 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.36 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 3.52 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.57 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.60 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.65 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.67 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.89 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.96 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 4.00 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 4.19 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 4.50 | 4.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.86 | 4.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 6.17 | 3.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 46.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |