Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence RI | 9 | 0.67 | 0.22 | 5.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 10 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 5.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 10 | 0.70 | -0.10 | 5.5 |
| Pierre SD | 9 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 5.0 |
| Nashville TN | 9 | 0.78 | -0.78 | 5.0 |
| Richmond VA | 9 | 0.78 | 0.11 | 5.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 10 | 0.80 | -0.80 | 5.5 |
| Boston MA | 10 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 5.5 |
| Juneau AK | 10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.5 |
| Topeka KS | 10 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 5.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 10 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 5.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 10 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 5.5 |
| Columbus OH | 9 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 5.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 9 | 1.00 | -0.33 | 5.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 10 | 1.10 | 0.10 | 5.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 10 | 1.10 | 0.50 | 5.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 10 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 5.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 10 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 5.5 |
| Salem OR | 9 | 1.11 | -0.67 | 5.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 9 | 1.11 | -0.67 | 5.0 |
| Jackson MS | 10 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 5.5 |
| Hartford CT | 10 | 1.30 | -0.50 | 5.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 10 | 1.30 | -0.50 | 5.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 10 | 1.30 | 0.10 | 5.5 |
| Springfield IL | 10 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 5.5 |
| Lansing MI | 10 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 5.5 |
| Helena MT | 10 | 1.40 | -0.40 | 5.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 10 | 1.50 | 0.10 | 5.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 9 | 1.56 | 0.22 | 5.0 |
| Charleston WV | 9 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 5.0 |
| Madison WI | 9 | 1.56 | -0.67 | 5.0 |
| Columbia SC | 9 | 1.78 | -1.78 | 5.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 10 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 5.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 10 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 5.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 9 | 2.00 | -1.11 | 5.0 |
| Austin TX | 9 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 5.0 |
| Boise ID | 10 | 2.50 | -0.10 | 5.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 10 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 5.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 10 | 2.60 | -2.60 | 5.5 |
| Dover DE | 10 | 2.60 | 0.80 | 5.5 |
| Augusta ME | 10 | 2.70 | 2.50 | 5.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 10 | 2.70 | -2.50 | 5.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 10 | 3.20 | -3.20 | 5.5 |
| Concord NH | 10 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 5.5 |
| Carson City NV | 10 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 5.5 |
| Albany NY | 10 | 4.30 | 2.50 | 5.5 |
| Denver CO | 10 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 5.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 9 | 4.89 | 3.78 | 5.0 |
| Olympia WA | 9 | 5.78 | 4.44 | 5.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 10 | 8.70 | 8.70 | 5.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 89.0°F | +8.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 69.0°F | +12.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 87.0°F | 85.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 90.0°F | 80.0°F | +10.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 92.0°F | 82.0°F | +10.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 88.0°F | 87.0°F | +1.0° | 10.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 9.0 |