Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.16 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.43 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.72 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 1.80 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.82 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 1.83 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.86 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.95 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 1.98 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 1.99 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.02 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.11 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.14 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.14 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.15 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.17 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.21 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.24 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.26 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.34 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.38 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.38 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.40 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.45 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.47 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.47 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.47 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.49 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.49 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.51 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.51 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.59 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.62 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.64 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.64 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.69 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.70 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.77 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.80 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.88 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.14 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.15 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.28 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.60 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.63 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.63 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.69 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.74 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 4.00 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 4.08 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 87.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 95.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 68.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 70.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |