Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 174 | 0.95 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 1.49 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.58 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.60 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 1.80 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 1.84 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 1.84 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 1.91 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 1.99 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.03 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.09 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.16 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.18 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.21 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.24 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.25 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.30 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.31 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.33 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.38 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.41 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.43 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.45 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.48 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.51 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.55 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.66 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.68 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.74 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 2.75 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.80 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.81 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.82 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 2.84 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.84 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.93 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.94 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.95 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.07 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 3.21 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.21 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.22 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 3.33 | -3.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.36 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.42 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.49 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.52 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.60 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 3.63 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 4.14 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 36.0°F | 33.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 36.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 54.0°F | 43.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |