Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.50 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.71 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 1.74 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.82 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.88 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.91 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 1.91 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.03 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.04 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.06 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.07 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.09 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.12 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.13 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.22 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.24 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.25 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.34 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.36 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.37 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.49 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.52 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.53 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.58 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.58 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.58 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.65 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.67 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.70 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.72 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.72 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.86 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.89 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.95 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.95 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.98 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.98 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.98 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.11 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.21 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.24 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.39 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.42 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.50 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.54 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.56 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.67 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 4.28 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 46.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |