Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 172 | 1.03 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.44 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.51 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.62 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 1.79 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.81 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.92 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.95 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.10 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.13 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.13 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.14 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.15 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.16 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.16 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.16 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.22 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.23 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.23 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.27 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.31 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.37 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.37 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.40 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.41 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.44 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.54 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.55 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.56 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.60 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.73 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.81 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.89 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.95 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.98 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.99 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.02 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.03 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.03 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.08 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 3.16 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.17 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.24 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.24 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.31 | -3.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.42 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 3.44 | -2.70 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.67 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.92 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.94 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |