Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.81 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 1.81 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 1.87 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.95 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 1.96 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 1.99 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.06 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.07 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.17 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.18 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.19 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.25 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.26 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.33 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.35 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.35 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.38 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.38 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.42 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.42 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.43 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.52 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.53 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.59 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.60 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.63 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 2.66 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.66 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.71 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 2.72 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.77 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.78 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.78 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.84 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.87 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.93 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 2.95 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.95 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.01 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.14 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 3.15 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 3.18 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 3.24 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 3.26 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.53 | 3.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.54 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.94 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.95 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 4.06 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 78.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 62.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |