Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.22 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.60 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.97 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.04 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.11 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.29 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.35 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.45 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.49 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.49 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.50 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.51 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.54 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.58 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.66 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.68 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.68 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.72 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.76 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.76 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.76 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.79 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.91 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.91 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.94 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.97 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.97 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.98 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.98 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.99 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.01 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.03 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 3.08 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.10 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.12 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.14 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 3.14 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.15 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.25 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 3.50 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 3.51 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.68 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.90 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 4.03 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 4.05 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 4.06 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 4.64 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 4.73 | 4.54 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 4.90 | 3.87 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 5.84 | 4.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 42.0°F | 40.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 41.0°F | 34.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |