Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.15 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.46 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.53 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.66 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.88 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 1.98 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 1.98 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.01 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.04 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.12 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.13 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.14 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.16 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.17 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.18 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.22 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.22 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.22 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.24 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.25 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.31 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.32 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.33 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.40 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.42 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.43 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.45 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.48 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.56 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.60 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.68 | -2.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.81 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.86 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.86 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.96 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.97 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.00 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 3.04 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.11 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 3.14 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.25 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.26 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 3.26 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.27 | -3.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.31 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.42 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.73 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.76 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.82 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 4.02 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 39.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |