Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
88273
4237152 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.63°
9390 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-25 18:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 188 1.79 -0.66 48.0
Boise ID 188 1.87 -0.60 48.0
Trenton NJ 188 1.87 -0.95 48.0
Honolulu HI 188 1.95 -1.90 48.0
Little Rock AR 188 1.98 1.29 48.0
Richmond VA 187 2.00 -0.24 48.0
Dover DE 188 2.08 -0.70 48.0
Saint Paul MN 188 2.12 -0.05 48.0
Tallahassee FL 188 2.15 0.90 48.0
Helena MT 188 2.16 0.81 48.0
Lansing MI 188 2.20 0.87 48.0
Boston MA 188 2.21 -0.96 48.0
Austin TX 187 2.24 1.55 48.0
Des Moines IA 188 2.26 -0.04 48.0
Annapolis MD 188 2.27 -0.07 48.0
Indianapolis IN 188 2.28 1.26 48.0
Augusta ME 188 2.30 -1.28 48.0
Jackson MS 188 2.30 1.47 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 188 2.38 0.66 48.0
Harrisburg PA 188 2.40 -1.13 48.0
Pierre SD 187 2.47 0.47 48.0
Madison WI 187 2.47 0.83 48.0
Juneau AK 188 2.48 -0.69 48.0
Bismarck ND 188 2.49 0.18 48.0
Columbus OH 188 2.49 1.65 48.0
Montgomery AL 188 2.54 1.70 48.0
Columbia SC 188 2.55 0.93 48.0
Atlanta GA 188 2.57 1.87 48.0
Providence RI 188 2.59 -2.05 48.0
Jefferson City MO 188 2.64 0.12 48.0
Hartford CT 188 2.65 -1.58 48.0
Springfield IL 188 2.65 1.49 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 187 2.65 -0.57 48.0
Frankfort KY 188 2.71 1.03 48.0
Topeka KS 188 2.80 -1.57 48.0
Santa Fe NM 188 2.89 0.51 48.0
Lincoln NE 188 2.90 -1.77 48.0
Sacramento CA 188 2.94 2.68 48.0
Charleston WV 187 2.97 2.01 48.0
Cheyenne WY 187 3.01 -1.01 48.0
Denver CO 188 3.16 1.14 48.0
Concord NH 188 3.18 -0.84 48.0
Carson City NV 188 3.31 1.49 48.0
Raleigh NC 188 3.34 0.10 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 188 3.37 3.12 48.0
Salem OR 188 3.60 2.40 48.0
Olympia WA 187 3.60 2.43 48.0
Montpelier VT 187 3.66 2.61 48.0
Nashville TN 187 3.89 3.23 48.0
Phoenix AZ 188 4.02 -1.27 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Montgomery AL 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 11:00 AKDT Juneau AK 51.0°F 44.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 12:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 87.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Little Rock AR 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 12:00 PDT Sacramento CA 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 MDT Denver CO 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Hartford CT 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Dover DE 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Atlanta GA 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 09:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Springfield IL 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Des Moines IA 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 66.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 74.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Annapolis MD 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Boston MA 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Lansing MI 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Jackson MS 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 MDT Helena MT 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Lincoln NE 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 12:00 PDT Carson City NV 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Concord NH 64.0°F 72.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Trenton NJ 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 13:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Albany NY 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Raleigh NC 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Bismarck ND 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Columbus OH 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 14:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 12:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-25 15:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 48.0