Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
85433
4100832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
8950 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-23 10:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Jackson MS 179 1.40 0.22 48.0
Little Rock AR 179 1.50 0.59 48.0
Austin TX 179 1.59 0.81 48.0
Juneau AK 179 1.62 -0.87 48.0
Boise ID 179 1.88 -0.64 48.0
Honolulu HI 179 1.91 -1.84 48.0
Augusta ME 179 1.93 -0.61 48.0
Richmond VA 179 1.99 -0.59 48.0
Columbia SC 179 2.07 -0.66 48.0
Boston MA 179 2.13 -1.51 48.0
Trenton NJ 179 2.14 -1.42 48.0
Tallahassee FL 179 2.15 -0.29 48.0
Des Moines IA 179 2.16 0.47 48.0
Jefferson City MO 179 2.18 -0.47 48.0
Helena MT 179 2.18 0.49 48.0
Montgomery AL 179 2.19 0.98 48.0
Indianapolis IN 179 2.21 0.38 48.0
Albany NY 179 2.30 -0.58 48.0
Saint Paul MN 179 2.42 0.67 48.0
Dover DE 179 2.47 -1.51 48.0
Frankfort KY 179 2.49 0.64 48.0
Annapolis MD 179 2.55 -0.72 48.0
Lansing MI 179 2.55 1.72 48.0
Pierre SD 179 2.56 1.08 48.0
Madison WI 179 2.61 1.65 48.0
Carson City NV 179 2.63 1.68 48.0
Concord NH 179 2.68 -1.08 48.0
Bismarck ND 179 2.68 0.68 48.0
Providence RI 179 2.68 -2.39 48.0
Harrisburg PA 179 2.69 -1.75 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 179 2.74 1.34 48.0
Cheyenne WY 179 2.75 -1.10 48.0
Hartford CT 179 2.78 -1.69 48.0
Atlanta GA 179 2.79 1.97 48.0
Springfield IL 179 2.85 1.54 48.0
Charleston WV 179 2.86 1.72 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 179 2.89 2.25 48.0
Columbus OH 179 2.91 1.49 48.0
Denver CO 179 2.93 0.23 48.0
Topeka KS 179 2.96 -2.01 48.0
Nashville TN 179 2.98 2.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 179 3.05 -0.31 48.0
Montpelier VT 179 3.10 1.45 48.0
Sacramento CA 179 3.18 3.11 48.0
Raleigh NC 179 3.20 -1.54 48.0
Santa Fe NM 179 3.21 1.23 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 179 3.57 -1.70 48.0
Salem OR 179 3.73 2.72 48.0
Olympia WA 179 4.00 2.69 48.0
Phoenix AZ 179 4.01 -1.44 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 02:00 AKDT Juneau AK 45.0°F 49.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 03:00 MST Phoenix AZ 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Little Rock AR 68.0°F 65.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 03:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 04:00 MDT Denver CO 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Hartford CT 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Dover DE 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Atlanta GA 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 00:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 04:00 MDT Boise ID 58.0°F 61.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Springfield IL 55.0°F 59.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Des Moines IA 49.0°F 53.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Topeka KS 55.0°F 61.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Frankfort KY 61.0°F 62.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Augusta ME 45.0°F 42.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Annapolis MD 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Boston MA 55.0°F 52.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Lansing MI 51.0°F 49.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 46.0°F 51.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Jackson MS 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 56.0°F 61.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 04:00 MDT Helena MT 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Lincoln NE 55.0°F 59.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 03:00 PDT Carson City NV 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Concord NH 43.0°F 40.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Trenton NJ 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 04:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Albany NY 46.0°F 45.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Raleigh NC 68.0°F 61.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Bismarck ND 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Columbus OH 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 05:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 03:00 PDT Salem OR 53.0°F 49.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 53.0°F 55.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Providence RI 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-23 06:00 EDT Columbia SC 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 48.0