Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.03 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.43 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.56 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.60 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.87 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.87 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.89 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.98 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.06 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.11 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.12 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.15 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.15 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.15 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.17 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.19 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.24 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.26 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.27 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.31 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.32 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.34 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.39 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.43 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.44 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.49 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.50 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.57 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.57 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.68 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.80 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.90 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.93 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.98 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.98 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 2.99 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.03 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.07 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.10 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 3.18 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.19 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.25 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.27 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.31 | -3.22 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.40 | -2.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.68 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.68 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.89 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.94 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 52.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 50.0°F | -18.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |