Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.73 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 1.77 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 1.80 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.81 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.93 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 2.05 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.06 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.10 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.11 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.11 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.13 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.14 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.19 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.19 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.23 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.24 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.26 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.33 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.35 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.39 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.39 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.42 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.44 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.46 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.54 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.55 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.64 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.64 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.68 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.69 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.70 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.75 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.76 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 2.77 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.79 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.85 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.89 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.94 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.98 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.06 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.12 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 3.13 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 3.14 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.18 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 3.50 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.64 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.74 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.81 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.83 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.85 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 92.0°F | 81.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 67.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 75.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 72.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |