Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.51 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 1.58 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 1.61 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.70 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.88 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.93 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 1.93 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.04 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.12 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.14 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.16 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 2.19 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 2.19 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.20 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.21 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.26 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.27 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.28 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.42 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.49 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 2.51 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.53 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.60 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.61 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.61 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.65 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.68 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.70 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.71 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 2.75 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 2.76 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.76 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.78 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.81 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.83 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.87 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.90 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.93 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 2.96 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.10 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.12 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 3.17 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.19 | 2.45 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.24 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 3.38 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.51 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 3.67 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.93 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.94 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 92.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 69.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |