Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.33 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.74 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 1.90 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.92 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 1.98 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.32 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.34 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.34 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 2.39 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.43 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.45 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.49 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.52 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.52 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.57 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.58 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.62 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.62 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.67 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.69 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.70 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.72 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.72 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.81 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.87 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.90 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.91 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.95 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.07 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.10 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.12 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 3.15 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.16 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.19 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 3.22 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.23 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 3.24 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 3.28 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.32 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.39 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.51 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.64 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 3.67 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.68 | 3.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 3.77 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 3.77 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.77 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.85 | 2.87 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.35 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 4.95 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 91.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 56.0°F | +23.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |