Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.52 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.52 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.63 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.71 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.79 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 1.86 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 1.96 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 1.97 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 1.98 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 1.98 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.04 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.09 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.09 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.18 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.22 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.22 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.26 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 2.28 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.32 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.37 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.38 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.42 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.47 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.51 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.52 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.52 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.56 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.58 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.59 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.59 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.66 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.66 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.68 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.79 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.83 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.86 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.88 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.93 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.99 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 3.00 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.01 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.02 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.03 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.20 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.38 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.56 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 3.62 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.84 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.90 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 61.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 67.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |