Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 188 | 1.02 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.54 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.58 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.60 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.79 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.85 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 1.88 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.90 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.01 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.02 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.15 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.18 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.23 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.27 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.27 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.27 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.28 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.29 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.32 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.39 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.41 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.42 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.43 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.46 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.49 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.56 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.62 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.69 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.71 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.77 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.78 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.84 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.85 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.86 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.87 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.90 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.93 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.95 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.13 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 3.14 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.15 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.15 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.24 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.27 | -3.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.43 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.43 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.52 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.62 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.77 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 4.09 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 97.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 69.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 82.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |