Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 178 | 1.79 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.84 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.94 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 1.94 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.02 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.04 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.04 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.12 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.12 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.15 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.16 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.23 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.24 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.28 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.29 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.31 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.34 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.37 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.37 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.39 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.39 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.49 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.53 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.55 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.59 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.60 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.63 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.66 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.79 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.83 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.84 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.84 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.88 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.91 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.92 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.93 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.93 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.05 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 3.06 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.16 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 3.17 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 3.19 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.34 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.36 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.60 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.64 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.98 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.98 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 4.25 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 38.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |