Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.22 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.59 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.64 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.78 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.78 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.84 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.86 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 1.94 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 1.97 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.06 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.07 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.10 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.17 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.17 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.18 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.25 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.29 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.35 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 2.37 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.37 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.40 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.41 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.43 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.45 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.45 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.46 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.46 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.48 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.49 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.53 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.55 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.55 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.55 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.58 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.65 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.72 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 2.74 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 2.78 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.79 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.81 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.07 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.40 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.44 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.56 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.67 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.67 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.69 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 3.77 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.87 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.91 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 93.0°F | 94.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 75.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 88.0°F | 84.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |