Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.79 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.83 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 1.92 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.95 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.00 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.03 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.03 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.11 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.12 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.17 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.18 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.24 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.26 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.28 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.31 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.32 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.33 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.35 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.37 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.42 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.44 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 2.44 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.47 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.53 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.57 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.57 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.61 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.61 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.67 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.77 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 2.79 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.81 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.84 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.87 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.89 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.92 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.93 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.96 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.02 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 3.04 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.13 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 3.18 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 3.19 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.31 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.36 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.58 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.63 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.96 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.99 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 4.22 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 43.0°F | 36.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |