Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.27 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.34 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 1.94 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.03 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.03 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.05 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.08 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.10 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.16 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.18 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.23 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.23 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.25 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.27 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.31 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.38 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.40 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.45 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.46 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.48 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.50 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.54 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.54 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.57 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.61 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.64 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.68 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.68 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.72 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.73 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.77 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 2.82 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.84 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.86 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.87 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 2.90 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.99 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.05 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.08 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 3.09 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.09 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 3.12 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.13 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 3.18 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 3.27 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.28 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 3.29 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 3.32 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.54 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.77 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 MST | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 52.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 MST | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Springfield IL | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 41.0°F | 42.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Topeka KS | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 38.0°F | 41.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 54.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Jackson MS | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 38.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 PST | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 38.0°F | 33.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Columbus OH | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Providence RI | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 EST | Columbia SC | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |