Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 7 | 0.43 | -0.14 | 4.0 |
| Boston MA | 8 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 4.5 |
| Providence RI | 6 | 0.50 | -0.17 | 3.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 8 | 0.63 | 0.13 | 4.5 |
| Columbus OH | 6 | 0.67 | -0.33 | 3.5 |
| Pierre SD | 6 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 3.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 7 | 0.71 | -0.71 | 4.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 8 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 4.5 |
| Topeka KS | 8 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 4.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 8 | 0.75 | -0.25 | 4.5 |
| Nashville TN | 6 | 0.83 | -0.83 | 3.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 6 | 0.83 | -0.50 | 3.5 |
| Lansing MI | 7 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 4.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 8 | 0.88 | -0.13 | 4.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 8 | 1.00 | -0.75 | 4.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 8 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 4.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 8 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 4.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 7 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 4.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 7 | 1.00 | -0.71 | 4.0 |
| Richmond VA | 6 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.5 |
| Hartford CT | 8 | 1.13 | -1.13 | 4.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 7 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 4.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 6 | 1.17 | -0.83 | 3.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 6 | 1.17 | -0.83 | 3.5 |
| Juneau AK | 8 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 4.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 8 | 1.25 | -1.00 | 4.5 |
| Helena MT | 7 | 1.29 | -1.29 | 4.0 |
| Salem OR | 6 | 1.33 | -0.67 | 3.5 |
| Charleston WV | 6 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 3.5 |
| Augusta ME | 8 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 4.5 |
| Madison WI | 6 | 1.50 | -1.50 | 3.5 |
| Springfield IL | 8 | 1.63 | 0.38 | 4.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 6 | 1.83 | -0.50 | 3.5 |
| Austin TX | 6 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 3.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 8 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 4.5 |
| Boise ID | 8 | 2.00 | -1.25 | 4.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 8 | 2.13 | -2.13 | 4.5 |
| Concord NH | 7 | 2.14 | -2.14 | 4.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 7 | 2.14 | 2.14 | 4.0 |
| Columbia SC | 6 | 2.17 | -2.17 | 3.5 |
| Dover DE | 8 | 2.38 | 0.13 | 4.5 |
| Albany NY | 7 | 2.43 | -0.14 | 4.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 6 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 3.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 7 | 2.71 | 2.71 | 4.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 7 | 2.71 | -2.71 | 4.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 8 | 2.88 | -2.88 | 4.5 |
| Denver CO | 8 | 3.13 | 3.13 | 4.5 |
| Carson City NV | 7 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 4.0 |
| Olympia WA | 6 | 6.83 | 6.83 | 3.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 8 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 4.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 83.0°F | +8.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 74.0°F | 69.0°F | +5.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 7.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 7.0 |