Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.31 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.72 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 1.91 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 1.91 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.99 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.25 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.34 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.38 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.38 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 2.44 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.45 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.46 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.50 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.52 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.57 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.58 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 2.61 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.62 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.69 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.70 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.71 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.72 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.74 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.80 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 2.84 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.84 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.92 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.96 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.02 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.10 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.15 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.15 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 3.18 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 3.20 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 3.21 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 3.25 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 3.26 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.27 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 3.32 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.44 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.51 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 3.63 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.68 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.69 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 3.73 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 3.75 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 3.81 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.90 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 4.37 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 4.60 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 48.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 59.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 32.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 52.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |