Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.42 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.48 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.59 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 1.60 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.89 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 1.96 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.96 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.05 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.09 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.10 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.13 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.17 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.17 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.19 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.20 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.25 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.36 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.39 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.53 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.54 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.55 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.55 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.60 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.61 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.64 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.67 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.68 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.73 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.73 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.73 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.79 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.82 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.82 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.85 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.86 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 2.90 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.91 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.91 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.92 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.97 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 3.08 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.09 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.12 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 3.21 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.29 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.67 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 3.79 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.94 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.96 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 92.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 75.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |