Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.24 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.77 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 1.84 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.93 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.04 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.07 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.27 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.31 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.40 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.41 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.44 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.48 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.53 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.62 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.65 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.66 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.70 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.70 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.71 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 2.73 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.83 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.87 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.87 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.93 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.93 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.95 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.98 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 2.99 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.00 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.04 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.05 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 3.09 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.10 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 3.10 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 3.18 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.21 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.27 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.30 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.47 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 3.48 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 3.59 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 3.64 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.95 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 4.00 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 4.08 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 4.18 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 4.41 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 4.96 | 4.75 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 5.13 | 4.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 5.89 | 3.82 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 49.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 35.0°F | 33.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 33.0°F | 28.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 33.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 32.0°F | 33.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |