Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.34 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.79 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 1.82 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 1.89 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.93 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 1.93 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.01 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.01 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.08 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.08 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 2.11 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.17 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.25 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.27 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.28 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 2.32 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.33 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.33 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.34 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.34 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.37 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.41 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.42 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.42 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.43 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.46 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.51 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.53 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.57 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.58 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.59 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.67 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.81 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.83 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.88 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.93 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 3.01 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.05 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.12 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.19 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.20 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 3.30 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 3.38 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.52 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.62 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 3.72 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.78 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.87 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.92 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 89.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 92.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 65.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 87.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 67.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |