Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.41 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.49 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.60 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.60 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.86 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.89 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 1.94 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.97 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.09 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.09 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.11 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.12 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.17 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.18 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.18 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.19 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.25 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.33 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.38 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.51 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.53 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.55 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.57 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.59 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.60 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.63 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.68 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.69 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.70 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.73 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.76 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.76 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.79 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.83 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.84 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.85 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.90 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.90 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.91 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.94 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.97 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.07 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 3.11 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.14 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 3.21 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.27 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.64 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 3.75 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.97 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.98 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 91.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |