Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.38 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.49 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.74 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 1.79 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 1.94 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.03 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.03 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.06 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.08 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.09 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.15 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.17 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.17 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.20 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.22 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.25 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.26 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.36 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.37 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.40 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.41 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.43 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.46 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.47 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.47 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.47 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.67 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.74 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.78 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.78 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.82 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.83 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.85 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.87 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 2.93 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.95 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.19 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.20 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.26 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.28 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.28 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.30 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 3.41 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.46 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 3.51 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.55 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.59 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.74 | -3.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.77 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 4.51 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 35.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 54.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |