Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
2433
116832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.65°
2384 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-16 06:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 48 0.90 0.48 24.5
Raleigh NC 48 1.17 -0.38 24.5
Annapolis MD 48 1.19 -0.35 24.5
Columbus OH 47 1.26 0.57 24.0
Jefferson City MO 48 1.27 0.40 24.5
Tallahassee FL 48 1.35 -0.40 24.5
Cheyenne WY 47 1.47 0.36 24.0
Jackson MS 48 1.50 -0.17 24.5
Honolulu HI 48 1.56 0.60 24.5
Nashville TN 47 1.70 0.09 24.0
Juneau AK 48 1.75 1.38 24.5
Harrisburg PA 47 1.79 0.81 24.0
Richmond VA 47 1.79 1.32 24.0
Montgomery AL 48 1.92 0.21 24.5
Indianapolis IN 48 1.96 1.00 24.5
Frankfort KY 48 1.96 0.54 24.5
Lansing MI 48 1.96 1.42 24.5
Salt Lake City UT 47 1.96 0.38 24.0
Madison WI 47 1.98 1.21 24.0
Salem OR 47 2.02 1.43 24.0
Des Moines IA 48 2.04 0.75 24.5
Little Rock AR 48 2.06 0.65 24.5
Topeka KS 48 2.19 2.15 24.5
Sacramento CA 48 2.29 -1.13 24.5
Bismarck ND 48 2.33 2.33 24.5
Oklahoma City OK 47 2.45 0.36 24.0
Atlanta GA 48 2.46 -2.13 24.5
Springfield IL 48 2.46 2.04 24.5
Dover DE 48 2.50 0.13 24.5
Trenton NJ 48 2.52 2.02 24.5
Pierre SD 47 2.57 2.53 24.0
Boise ID 48 2.94 2.27 24.5
Helena MT 48 3.06 1.77 24.5
Charleston WV 47 3.11 3.11 24.0
Lincoln NE 48 3.17 3.17 24.5
Saint Paul MN 48 3.21 3.00 24.5
Denver CO 48 3.27 2.77 24.5
Santa Fe NM 48 3.27 -1.40 24.5
Olympia WA 47 3.38 -0.96 24.0
Columbia SC 47 3.60 -3.60 24.0
Hartford CT 48 3.65 2.31 24.5
Augusta ME 48 3.73 1.94 24.5
Phoenix AZ 48 4.00 2.58 24.5
Austin TX 47 4.02 3.98 24.0
Carson City NV 48 4.29 3.75 24.5
Providence RI 47 4.53 4.45 24.0
Boston MA 48 4.71 4.50 24.5
Concord NH 48 5.10 4.23 24.5
Montpelier VT 47 5.11 3.11 24.0
Albany NY 48 5.92 4.33 24.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 22:00 AKDT Juneau AK 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 23:00 MST Phoenix AZ 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Little Rock AR 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 23:00 PDT Sacramento CA 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 00:00 MDT Denver CO 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Hartford CT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 20:00 HST Honolulu HI 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 00:00 MDT Boise ID 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Springfield IL 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Des Moines IA 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Topeka KS 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Frankfort KY 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Augusta ME 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Annapolis MD 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Boston MA 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Lansing MI 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Jackson MS 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 00:00 MDT Helena MT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Lincoln NE 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 23:00 PDT Carson City NV 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Concord NH 66.0°F 59.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Trenton NJ 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 00:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Albany NY 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Bismarck ND 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Columbus OH 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 76.0°F 71.0°F +5.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 23:00 PDT Salem OR 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Providence RI 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT Columbia SC 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 47.0