Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.20 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.67 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.70 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.71 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.77 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.80 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.84 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.98 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.99 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.03 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.10 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.21 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.22 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.22 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.26 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.27 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.27 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.31 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.33 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.38 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.38 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.41 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.44 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.45 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.45 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.45 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.47 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.51 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.51 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.52 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.53 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.53 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.55 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.65 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.71 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.73 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.73 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.78 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.81 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.91 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.20 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.30 | -2.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.41 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.55 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.60 | 2.55 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.63 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.74 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.81 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 4.10 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 4.15 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 57.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |