Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond VA | 30 | 0.83 | 0.10 | 15.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 31 | 0.94 | 0.74 | 16.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 31 | 1.00 | -0.10 | 16.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 31 | 1.10 | 0.26 | 16.0 |
| Juneau AK | 31 | 1.16 | 0.71 | 16.0 |
| Columbus OH | 30 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 15.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 31 | 1.23 | -0.77 | 16.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 31 | 1.39 | 0.42 | 16.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 31 | 1.42 | 0.77 | 16.0 |
| Nashville TN | 30 | 1.47 | -0.87 | 15.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 31 | 1.48 | 0.06 | 16.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 30 | 1.50 | 0.63 | 15.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 31 | 1.52 | 0.74 | 16.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 30 | 1.53 | -1.13 | 15.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 31 | 1.55 | 0.06 | 16.0 |
| Jackson MS | 31 | 1.68 | -0.13 | 16.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 31 | 1.81 | -0.32 | 16.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 30 | 1.83 | 0.43 | 15.5 |
| Lansing MI | 31 | 1.87 | 1.16 | 16.0 |
| Topeka KS | 31 | 1.90 | 1.84 | 16.0 |
| Salem OR | 30 | 1.93 | 1.13 | 15.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 31 | 1.97 | 0.48 | 16.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 30 | 2.00 | 0.73 | 15.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 31 | 2.03 | -1.65 | 16.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 31 | 2.06 | 2.06 | 16.0 |
| Madison WI | 30 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 15.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 31 | 2.26 | -1.74 | 16.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 31 | 2.32 | 0.13 | 16.0 |
| Springfield IL | 31 | 2.35 | 1.90 | 16.0 |
| Dover DE | 31 | 2.45 | 0.00 | 16.0 |
| Pierre SD | 30 | 2.60 | 2.53 | 15.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 31 | 2.68 | -1.52 | 16.0 |
| Hartford CT | 31 | 2.71 | 1.10 | 16.0 |
| Charleston WV | 30 | 2.73 | 2.73 | 15.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 31 | 2.74 | 2.55 | 16.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 31 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 16.0 |
| Austin TX | 30 | 3.03 | 2.97 | 15.5 |
| Columbia SC | 30 | 3.33 | -3.33 | 15.5 |
| Olympia WA | 30 | 3.43 | 0.37 | 15.5 |
| Boston MA | 31 | 3.48 | 3.16 | 16.0 |
| Providence RI | 30 | 3.50 | 3.37 | 15.5 |
| Helena MT | 31 | 3.52 | 2.94 | 16.0 |
| Denver CO | 31 | 3.58 | 3.58 | 16.0 |
| Boise ID | 31 | 3.87 | 2.84 | 16.0 |
| Albany NY | 31 | 4.58 | 2.13 | 16.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 31 | 4.90 | 3.42 | 16.0 |
| Augusta ME | 31 | 4.90 | 2.84 | 16.0 |
| Concord NH | 31 | 4.97 | 3.61 | 16.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 30 | 5.03 | 2.23 | 15.5 |
| Carson City NV | 31 | 5.65 | 5.00 | 16.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 31.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 30.0 |
| 2026-07-15 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 30.0 |