Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.32 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.75 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.96 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.05 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.10 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.14 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.23 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.30 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.37 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.38 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.39 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.40 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.47 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.47 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.51 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.54 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.57 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.57 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.62 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.69 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.75 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.78 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.81 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.85 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.89 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.90 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.95 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 3.00 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.07 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 3.13 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.16 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.17 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.20 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.22 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.26 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.33 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.33 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.39 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.54 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.59 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.60 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.65 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.68 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.91 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.98 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.99 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 4.21 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 4.47 | 4.08 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.82 | 4.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 6.15 | 3.55 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |