Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.37 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 1.67 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 1.76 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.81 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 1.88 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 1.94 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 1.94 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 1.99 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 2.01 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 2.07 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.08 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.08 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.16 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.19 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.24 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.25 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.28 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.28 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.30 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.32 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.33 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 2.34 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 2.40 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 2.42 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.46 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.49 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.49 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.53 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.54 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.54 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.55 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.55 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.61 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.75 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.77 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 2.83 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 2.89 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 3.02 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.05 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 3.06 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.16 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.16 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 3.17 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.37 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 3.44 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.58 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 3.63 | 3.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.75 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.82 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 3.84 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 00:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 22:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 02:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 43.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 03:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 01:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 04:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |