Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.23 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.69 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.94 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.08 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.17 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.25 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.30 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.39 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.46 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.48 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.52 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.55 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.55 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.56 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.64 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.65 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.66 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.67 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.72 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.72 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.72 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.80 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.85 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.85 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.86 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.90 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.90 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.94 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.98 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.98 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.98 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.98 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 3.02 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 3.08 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 3.11 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.11 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.12 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.13 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.26 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 3.37 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.53 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.63 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.77 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 3.91 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.93 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 4.03 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 4.45 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 4.52 | 4.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 4.79 | 3.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 5.67 | 4.38 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 34.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |