Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.32 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 1.81 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 1.83 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 1.84 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.93 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.17 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.39 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.41 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.44 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.47 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.49 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.51 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.52 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.56 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.57 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.59 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.61 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.61 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.63 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.66 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.67 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.68 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.76 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.79 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.79 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.83 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.93 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.99 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.99 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.07 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.14 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 3.15 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.20 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 3.21 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 3.29 | -2.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.31 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.32 | 2.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.32 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.51 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.59 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.71 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 3.74 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 3.74 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 3.84 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.88 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 3.93 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 3.97 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 4.08 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 4.50 | 3.81 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 5.84 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 24.0°F | 30.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 47.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 33.0°F | 32.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 47.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 35.0°F | 39.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |