Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.35 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.82 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.86 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.86 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.94 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.18 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.41 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.45 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.51 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.52 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.54 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.58 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.61 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.64 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.65 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.65 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.65 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.68 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.68 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.71 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.72 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.76 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.81 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.82 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 2.96 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.01 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 3.09 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.10 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.16 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.16 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.22 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 3.25 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.25 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 3.26 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.32 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.33 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.38 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.45 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.56 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.72 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.76 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 3.81 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.82 | 3.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.94 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 3.94 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 4.05 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.45 | 3.72 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 5.39 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 70.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 43.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 53.0°F | +19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 46.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |