Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 1.44 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 1.67 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.70 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 1.78 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.79 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 1.89 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.89 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 1.98 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.01 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.04 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 2.06 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.06 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.13 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 2.16 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.16 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.24 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 2.29 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.29 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.32 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.39 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.41 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.45 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.46 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.50 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.51 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.54 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.55 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.59 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.61 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.62 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.66 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.72 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.77 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.78 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.79 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.82 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.89 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 2.97 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 3.05 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.18 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 3.18 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 3.28 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.32 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 3.51 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 3.53 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.54 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.63 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.65 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.66 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 4.06 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 84.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |