Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
138
6672 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
1.79°
89 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-14 08:03 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Columbus OH 1 0.00 0.00 1.0
Nashville TN 1 0.00 0.00 1.0
Montpelier VT 1 0.00 0.00 1.0
Richmond VA 1 0.00 0.00 1.0
Charleston WV 1 0.00 0.00 1.0
Cheyenne WY 1 0.00 0.00 1.0
Sacramento CA 3 0.33 -0.33 2.0
Tallahassee FL 2 0.50 0.50 1.5
Indianapolis IN 2 0.50 -0.50 1.5
Des Moines IA 2 0.50 -0.50 1.5
Frankfort KY 2 0.50 0.50 1.5
Baton Rouge LA 2 0.50 0.50 1.5
Augusta ME 2 0.50 0.50 1.5
Boston MA 2 0.50 0.50 1.5
Jackson MS 2 0.50 0.50 1.5
Raleigh NC 2 0.50 -0.50 1.5
Montgomery AL 3 1.00 -0.33 2.0
Honolulu HI 2 1.00 -1.00 1.5
Annapolis MD 2 1.00 1.00 1.5
Lansing MI 2 1.00 1.00 1.5
Saint Paul MN 2 1.00 1.00 1.5
Jefferson City MO 2 1.00 1.00 1.5
Lincoln NE 2 1.00 1.00 1.5
Trenton NJ 2 1.00 -1.00 1.5
Providence RI 1 1.00 -1.00 1.0
Columbia SC 1 1.00 -1.00 1.0
Pierre SD 1 1.00 1.00 1.0
Salt Lake City UT 1 1.00 1.00 1.0
Madison WI 1 1.00 -1.00 1.0
Hartford CT 2 1.50 -1.50 1.5
Boise ID 2 1.50 1.50 1.5
Topeka KS 2 1.50 1.50 1.5
Santa Fe NM 2 1.50 -1.50 1.5
Bismarck ND 2 1.50 1.50 1.5
Little Rock AR 3 1.67 -1.67 2.0
Dover DE 2 2.00 -2.00 1.5
Springfield IL 2 2.00 2.00 1.5
Helena MT 2 2.00 -2.00 1.5
Concord NH 2 2.00 -2.00 1.5
Albany NY 2 2.00 -2.00 1.5
Salem OR 1 2.00 2.00 1.0
Harrisburg PA 1 2.00 -2.00 1.0
Austin TX 1 2.00 2.00 1.0
Juneau AK 3 2.33 2.33 2.0
Atlanta GA 2 2.50 -2.50 1.5
Oklahoma City OK 1 3.00 3.00 1.0
Olympia WA 1 4.00 4.00 1.0
Denver CO 2 5.00 5.00 1.5
Carson City NV 2 8.50 8.50 1.5
Phoenix AZ 3 11.67 11.67 2.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (UTC) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC Montgomery AL 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC Little Rock AR 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC Sacramento CA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Montgomery AL 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Juneau AK 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Phoenix AZ 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Little Rock AR 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Sacramento CA 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Denver CO 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Hartford CT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Dover DE 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Tallahassee FL 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Atlanta GA 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Honolulu HI 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Boise ID 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Springfield IL 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Indianapolis IN 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Des Moines IA 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Topeka KS 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Frankfort KY 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Baton Rouge LA 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Augusta ME 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Annapolis MD 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Boston MA 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Lansing MI 71.0°F 70.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Saint Paul MN 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Jackson MS 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Jefferson City MO 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Helena MT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Lincoln NE 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Carson City NV 72.0°F 64.0°F +8.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Concord NH 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Trenton NJ 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Santa Fe NM 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Albany NY 66.0°F 69.0°F -3.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Raleigh NC 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Bismarck ND 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC Columbus OH 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 1.0