Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1083
52032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
1034 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 03:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Raleigh NC 21 0.76 -0.48 11.0
Columbus OH 20 0.85 0.25 10.5
Richmond VA 20 0.85 0.25 10.5
Baton Rouge LA 21 1.10 0.90 11.0
Annapolis MD 21 1.10 -0.52 11.0
Juneau AK 21 1.14 0.48 11.0
Honolulu HI 21 1.19 0.43 11.0
Tallahassee FL 21 1.33 0.19 11.0
Cheyenne WY 20 1.50 0.70 10.5
Nashville TN 20 1.55 -0.65 10.5
Frankfort KY 21 1.57 0.81 11.0
Oklahoma City OK 20 1.70 -1.10 10.5
Madison WI 20 1.70 0.70 10.5
Indianapolis IN 21 1.71 0.57 11.0
Jefferson City MO 21 1.71 0.67 11.0
Pierre SD 20 1.75 1.65 10.5
Charleston WV 20 1.75 1.75 10.5
Bismarck ND 21 1.81 1.81 11.0
Jackson MS 21 1.86 0.43 11.0
Trenton NJ 21 1.90 1.33 11.0
Little Rock AR 21 2.00 -0.19 11.0
Harrisburg PA 20 2.00 1.40 10.5
Sacramento CA 21 2.10 -2.10 11.0
Des Moines IA 21 2.10 1.43 11.0
Topeka KS 21 2.14 2.05 11.0
Salt Lake City UT 20 2.20 1.60 10.5
Springfield IL 21 2.24 1.76 11.0
Salem OR 20 2.35 1.55 10.5
Lansing MI 21 2.38 2.10 11.0
Atlanta GA 21 2.48 -1.71 11.0
Saint Paul MN 21 2.52 2.43 11.0
Columbia SC 20 2.60 -2.60 10.5
Dover DE 21 2.71 0.52 11.0
Montgomery AL 21 2.90 0.71 11.0
Santa Fe NM 21 2.95 -1.24 11.0
Hartford CT 21 3.00 2.14 11.0
Lincoln NE 21 3.05 3.05 11.0
Providence RI 20 3.25 3.05 10.5
Boston MA 21 3.52 3.33 11.0
Helena MT 21 3.57 2.71 11.0
Carson City NV 21 3.86 2.90 11.0
Denver CO 21 3.90 3.90 11.0
Austin TX 20 4.05 4.05 10.5
Boise ID 21 4.48 3.24 11.0
Olympia WA 20 4.50 0.10 10.5
Albany NY 21 5.29 4.43 11.0
Augusta ME 21 5.76 5.67 11.0
Montpelier VT 20 5.90 5.00 10.5
Concord NH 21 6.00 4.57 11.0
Phoenix AZ 21 6.19 6.10 11.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 19:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MST Phoenix AZ 102.0°F 103.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Little Rock AR 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT Sacramento CA 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT Denver CO 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Hartford CT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Dover DE 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 17:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT Boise ID 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Springfield IL 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Des Moines IA 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Topeka KS 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Augusta ME 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Annapolis MD 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Boston MA 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Lansing MI 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 86.0°F 80.0°F +6.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Jackson MS 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 78.0°F 82.0°F -4.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT Helena MT 81.0°F 74.0°F +7.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Lincoln NE 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT Carson City NV 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Concord NH 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Trenton NJ 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Albany NY 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Raleigh NC 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Bismarck ND 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Columbus OH 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 PDT Salem OR 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Providence RI 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 80.0°F -5.0° 20.0