Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.32 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 1.72 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 1.91 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.92 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 1.98 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.29 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.33 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.36 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.42 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.44 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.45 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.47 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 2.49 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.51 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.57 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.59 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.59 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.62 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.69 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.70 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.70 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.72 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.74 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.80 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 2.84 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.90 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.91 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.94 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 3.06 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 3.07 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.12 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 3.17 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 3.17 | -2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.21 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 3.22 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.23 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.25 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 3.27 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 3.33 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.41 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.51 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.66 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.70 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.71 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 3.72 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.73 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.79 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.88 | 2.90 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.76 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 53.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 90.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 75.0°F | 64.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 41.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 54.0°F | +22.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |