Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.24 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 1.83 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 1.87 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 1.94 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.10 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.12 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.27 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.34 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.43 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.45 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.46 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.51 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.54 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.55 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.57 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.61 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.61 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.70 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.72 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.73 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.76 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.88 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.89 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.90 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.95 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.98 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.99 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.99 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.07 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.09 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.10 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.14 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.16 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.16 | -2.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 3.17 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.21 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 3.27 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.36 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.53 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.55 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 3.58 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 3.66 | 3.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.84 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.99 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 4.06 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 4.10 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 4.52 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 5.08 | 4.85 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 5.28 | 4.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 6.06 | 4.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 42.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 66.0°F | 58.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |