Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.49 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.69 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 1.70 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.78 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.78 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.87 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 1.88 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.01 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.02 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.03 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.07 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.07 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.10 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.15 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 2.17 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.22 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.30 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.31 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.31 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.39 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.43 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.43 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.44 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.48 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.50 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.52 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.58 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.59 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.61 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.63 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.63 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.70 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.75 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.76 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.79 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.80 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.86 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.97 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 3.05 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.16 | -2.45 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.23 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.23 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.37 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.46 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.52 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.55 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.61 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.62 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.70 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 4.11 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |