Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 185 | 1.48 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 1.57 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.62 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 1.70 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 1.88 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 1.92 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 1.94 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 2.02 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.11 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.15 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.15 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 2.16 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.17 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 2.18 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.19 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.19 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.26 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.29 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 2.44 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 2.49 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.51 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.52 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.58 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.59 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.59 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 2.63 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 2.64 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.68 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 2.69 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.72 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 2.73 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 2.74 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.76 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.79 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.82 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 2.84 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 2.88 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.90 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.91 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.99 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.09 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 3.11 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 3.13 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 3.19 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.23 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 3.34 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 3.51 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 3.70 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 3.95 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.97 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 78.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 62.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |