Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.16 | -0.40 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.72 | -1.20 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.81 | 0.10 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 1.89 | 0.77 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 1.92 | -0.68 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 1.99 | 0.53 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.06 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.10 | -0.32 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.11 | 0.15 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.19 | -0.22 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.37 | 0.63 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.37 | -0.63 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.40 | 1.38 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.40 | 0.01 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.43 | 0.49 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.44 | -0.43 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.51 | 0.31 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.57 | -1.29 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.57 | -0.32 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.60 | -1.09 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.61 | -1.31 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.62 | 1.01 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.62 | 0.68 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.63 | -0.23 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.64 | 0.81 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.66 | -0.38 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.67 | -2.53 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.68 | -0.85 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.69 | -0.55 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.74 | 1.19 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 2.88 | -2.13 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.93 | 2.11 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 2.96 | -0.72 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.97 | -1.14 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 3.01 | 0.72 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 3.02 | -0.31 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 3.03 | 1.28 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.05 | -1.53 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.05 | 2.07 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 3.07 | -2.19 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.10 | 1.28 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 3.13 | -2.26 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.18 | 0.21 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.38 | 1.74 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 3.40 | -0.87 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 3.44 | 0.98 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 3.48 | -2.33 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.53 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.64 | 0.33 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.73 | 2.56 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 03:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 MST | Denver CO | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Dover DE | 38.0°F | 44.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 MST | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 42.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Springfield IL | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 42.0°F | 48.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Topeka KS | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 35.0°F | 44.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 42.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Jackson MS | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 PST | Carson City NV | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Concord NH | 35.0°F | 44.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 38.0°F | 45.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Albany NY | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 41.0°F | 41.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 28.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Columbus OH | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 PST | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 EST | Columbia SC | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |