Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 1.49 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 1.68 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 1.74 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 1.79 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 1.89 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.89 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 2.04 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.04 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 2.12 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 2.13 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.13 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 2.13 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 2.17 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.17 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.18 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.20 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.26 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.28 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 2.39 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.40 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.43 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.46 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.47 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.47 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.51 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.53 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.55 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 2.59 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.59 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.62 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.65 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.67 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.72 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.83 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 2.87 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.89 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.90 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.95 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.96 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.03 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.13 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 3.30 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.30 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 3.32 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 3.33 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 3.51 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.52 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.73 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.75 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 4.25 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 89.0°F | 91.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |