Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1033
49632 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.62°
984 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 02:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Raleigh NC 20 0.80 -0.50 10.5
Columbus OH 19 0.84 0.21 10.0
Richmond VA 19 0.84 0.32 10.0
Annapolis MD 20 0.95 -0.35 10.5
Baton Rouge LA 20 1.10 0.90 10.5
Juneau AK 20 1.15 0.45 10.5
Honolulu HI 20 1.20 0.50 10.5
Tallahassee FL 20 1.40 0.20 10.5
Cheyenne WY 19 1.42 0.58 10.0
Nashville TN 19 1.53 -0.79 10.0
Frankfort KY 20 1.55 0.95 10.5
Jefferson City MO 20 1.60 0.90 10.5
Pierre SD 19 1.63 1.53 10.0
Charleston WV 19 1.63 1.63 10.0
Madison WI 19 1.63 0.58 10.0
Indianapolis IN 20 1.70 0.70 10.5
Oklahoma City OK 19 1.74 -1.11 10.0
Jackson MS 20 1.80 0.60 10.5
Bismarck ND 20 1.80 1.80 10.5
Little Rock AR 20 2.00 -0.30 10.5
Trenton NJ 20 2.00 1.40 10.5
Des Moines IA 20 2.05 1.65 10.5
Springfield IL 20 2.10 1.60 10.5
Harrisburg PA 19 2.11 1.47 10.0
Salt Lake City UT 19 2.16 1.53 10.0
Sacramento CA 20 2.20 -2.20 10.5
Topeka KS 20 2.20 2.10 10.5
Salem OR 19 2.32 1.47 10.0
Saint Paul MN 20 2.35 2.25 10.5
Columbia SC 19 2.47 -2.47 10.0
Lansing MI 20 2.50 2.20 10.5
Atlanta GA 20 2.55 -1.75 10.5
Dover DE 20 2.60 0.80 10.5
Montgomery AL 20 2.95 0.85 10.5
Hartford CT 20 3.00 2.10 10.5
Lincoln NE 20 3.05 3.05 10.5
Santa Fe NM 20 3.05 -1.25 10.5
Providence RI 19 3.26 3.05 10.0
Helena MT 20 3.40 2.50 10.5
Boston MA 20 3.45 3.25 10.5
Denver CO 20 3.85 3.85 10.5
Carson City NV 20 3.90 2.90 10.5
Austin TX 19 4.16 4.16 10.0
Boise ID 20 4.55 3.25 10.5
Olympia WA 19 4.68 0.16 10.0
Albany NY 20 5.30 4.40 10.5
Augusta ME 20 5.95 5.85 10.5
Concord NH 20 6.05 4.55 10.5
Montpelier VT 19 6.05 5.42 10.0
Phoenix AZ 20 6.45 6.45 10.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Montgomery AL 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 18:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MST Phoenix AZ 104.0°F 104.0°F +0.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Little Rock AR 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 19:00 PDT Sacramento CA 98.0°F 99.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT Denver CO 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Hartford CT 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Dover DE 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 16:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT Boise ID 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Springfield IL 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Des Moines IA 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Topeka KS 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Frankfort KY 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Augusta ME 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Annapolis MD 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Boston MA 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Lansing MI 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Jackson MS 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT Helena MT 86.0°F 77.0°F +9.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Lincoln NE 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 19:00 PDT Carson City NV 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Concord NH 85.0°F 79.0°F +6.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Trenton NJ 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Albany NY 86.0°F 81.0°F +5.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Raleigh NC 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Bismarck ND 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Columbus OH 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 PDT Salem OR 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Providence RI 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT Columbia SC 75.0°F 81.0°F -6.0° 19.0