Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.24 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.79 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 1.85 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 1.93 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.06 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.07 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.28 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.32 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.40 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.44 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.46 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.52 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.53 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.60 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.62 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.65 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.68 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.70 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.71 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.74 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.83 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.83 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.87 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.88 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.91 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.97 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.98 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.01 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.02 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.03 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.09 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 3.10 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.10 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.15 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.16 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.21 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 3.28 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.36 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.49 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 3.54 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.55 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 3.60 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.92 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 4.02 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 4.05 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 4.06 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 4.49 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 5.02 | 4.81 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 5.16 | 4.46 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 5.93 | 4.01 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 37.0°F | 35.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 33.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 42.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |