Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 188 | 1.17 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.61 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.67 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.70 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.78 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.79 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.79 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 1.94 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 1.99 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.02 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.16 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.17 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.22 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.24 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.24 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.28 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.28 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.32 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.33 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.39 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.41 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.41 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.41 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.51 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.51 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.52 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.53 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.55 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.56 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.56 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.57 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.57 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.61 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.70 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.76 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.78 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 2.79 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.79 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.98 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.17 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.48 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.48 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.49 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.52 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.55 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.71 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 3.80 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.96 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 4.10 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 74.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 56.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 57.0°F | +17.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 77.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |