Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.21 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 1.43 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 1.69 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 1.80 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.84 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.84 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 1.85 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.90 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 1.93 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.07 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.09 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.12 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.20 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.23 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.24 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.25 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.26 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.30 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.32 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 2.37 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.37 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.38 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 2.40 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.42 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.44 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.45 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.47 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.48 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.49 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 2.51 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.53 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.59 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.59 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 2.65 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.66 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.69 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.70 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 2.78 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.80 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 2.88 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.14 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.29 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.37 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.52 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.62 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.70 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.74 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.75 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.99 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 4.00 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 50.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 46.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 34.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |