Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.25 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.40 | -0.58 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 1.98 | -0.40 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 1.99 | 0.51 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 1.99 | -0.97 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.04 | -0.24 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.08 | 0.39 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.09 | 0.51 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.22 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.24 | -0.71 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.26 | -0.36 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.27 | 0.18 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.30 | 0.55 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.31 | -0.23 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.35 | -0.56 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.39 | -0.97 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.41 | 1.37 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.42 | 0.83 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.47 | 0.64 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.50 | -0.35 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.53 | -1.02 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.56 | -0.17 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.63 | -1.12 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.66 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.69 | 1.22 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.69 | 1.09 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.69 | 0.11 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.72 | -0.54 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.73 | -2.04 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.73 | 1.51 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.80 | -1.77 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.84 | 0.45 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.85 | 1.02 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 2.85 | 1.60 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.86 | 1.04 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 2.92 | 0.98 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.97 | -0.49 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 3.04 | -1.11 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.07 | 2.18 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.07 | 1.61 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 3.12 | 0.68 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 3.14 | -2.42 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.16 | -0.02 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 3.24 | -2.42 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 3.32 | -2.21 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 3.32 | -0.85 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 3.39 | -0.88 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.45 | 2.32 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.56 | -1.06 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.76 | 0.21 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 52.0°F | 43.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 50.0°F | 44.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 MST | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 MST | Boise ID | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Springfield IL | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Topeka KS | 49.0°F | 41.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Jackson MS | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 MST | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 48.0°F | 42.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 PST | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 30.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 54.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 39.0°F | 33.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 08:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 52.0°F | 44.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 09:00 EST | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |