Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.39 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 1.67 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.79 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.01 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.03 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.13 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.18 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.20 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.26 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.30 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.36 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.39 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.40 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.42 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.47 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.58 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.61 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.61 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.62 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.67 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.70 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.71 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.76 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.78 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.83 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.88 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.97 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 3.00 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 3.00 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.01 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.02 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 3.08 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 3.10 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.11 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.15 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 3.21 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.21 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.35 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.36 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 3.45 | -3.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.48 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.50 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.50 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.62 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 3.95 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 4.08 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 4.08 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.22 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 4.30 | 3.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 31.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |