Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 178 | 1.19 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.42 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 1.69 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.79 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.81 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 1.84 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 1.87 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.92 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.93 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.07 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.10 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.14 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.15 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.24 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.25 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.26 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.28 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.30 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.31 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.34 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 2.39 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 2.42 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.43 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.43 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.44 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.44 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.46 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.48 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.48 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.48 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.52 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.61 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.61 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 2.65 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.67 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.68 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.71 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 2.76 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.78 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.89 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.15 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.19 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.27 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.56 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.62 | 3.06 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.67 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.69 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.70 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 4.04 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 4.05 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |