Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 181 | 1.71 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 1.82 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 1.87 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.96 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.96 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.02 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.06 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.08 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.09 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.14 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.15 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.18 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.19 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 2.23 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.25 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.27 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.28 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.32 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.34 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.36 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.45 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.45 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.46 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.46 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.46 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.51 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.61 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.62 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.64 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.64 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.66 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.69 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.70 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.71 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.78 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.89 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.96 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 2.99 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.99 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 3.02 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 3.07 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 3.10 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.22 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 3.36 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 3.43 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.61 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.62 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 3.71 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.90 | 3.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 3.93 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 35.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 66.0°F | 73.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 68.0°F | -13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-25 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |