Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.34 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.72 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.89 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 1.91 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.97 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.11 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.14 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.34 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.35 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.42 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.43 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.44 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.51 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.51 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.52 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.53 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.68 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.68 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.70 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.71 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.73 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.78 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.78 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.80 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.82 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.89 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.91 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.93 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.96 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.98 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.02 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.03 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.03 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 3.03 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 3.08 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 3.10 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.11 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.21 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 3.30 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.41 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.44 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 3.45 | 3.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.49 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.63 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.69 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 3.83 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.87 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.89 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 4.05 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 4.16 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 48.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 57.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 68.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |