Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.38 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.40 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 1.63 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 1.75 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 1.97 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.99 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.02 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.05 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.06 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.06 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.11 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.14 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.20 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.22 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.23 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.25 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.26 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.27 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.33 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.35 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.35 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.37 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.39 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.45 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.47 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.50 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 2.63 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.72 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.74 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.74 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.75 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.88 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.89 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.94 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.96 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.97 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.01 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.03 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.03 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.23 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.26 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 3.28 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 3.32 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 3.38 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.66 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.72 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.75 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.80 | -3.04 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 4.48 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 36.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 50.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 46.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 54.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |