Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 1.49 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 1.55 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.80 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.84 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 1.92 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 1.99 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.04 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.10 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.13 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.13 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 2.17 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.20 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.21 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.23 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.24 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.24 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 2.28 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.28 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 2.30 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.45 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.50 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.54 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.61 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 2.64 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.65 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.71 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 2.72 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 2.74 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.75 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.77 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.79 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.85 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.85 | -2.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.86 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 2.89 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.91 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.92 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.02 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 3.03 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 3.09 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 3.15 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 3.23 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.35 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 3.38 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.62 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.67 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 3.68 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 3.74 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.76 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |