Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 185 | 1.50 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 185 | 1.66 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 185 | 1.73 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 185 | 1.79 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 185 | 1.90 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 185 | 1.90 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 185 | 1.92 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 185 | 2.04 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 185 | 2.05 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 185 | 2.07 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 185 | 2.09 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 185 | 2.10 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 185 | 2.14 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 185 | 2.15 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 185 | 2.21 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 185 | 2.22 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 185 | 2.23 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 185 | 2.29 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 185 | 2.36 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 185 | 2.37 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 185 | 2.38 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 185 | 2.46 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 185 | 2.48 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 185 | 2.50 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 185 | 2.53 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 185 | 2.55 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 185 | 2.56 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 185 | 2.62 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 185 | 2.63 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 185 | 2.64 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 185 | 2.68 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 185 | 2.70 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 185 | 2.72 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 185 | 2.84 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 185 | 2.88 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 185 | 2.89 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 185 | 2.91 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 185 | 2.95 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 185 | 2.97 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 185 | 3.02 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 185 | 3.08 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 185 | 3.29 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 185 | 3.32 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 185 | 3.36 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 185 | 3.37 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 185 | 3.48 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 185 | 3.54 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 185 | 3.69 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 185 | 3.73 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 185 | 4.25 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 08:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 10:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 06:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 10:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Boston MA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 10:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 10:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 11:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 09:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 12:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |