Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 46 | 0.89 | 0.54 | 23.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 46 | 1.07 | -0.24 | 23.5 |
| Columbus OH | 45 | 1.20 | 0.71 | 23.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 46 | 1.24 | -0.37 | 23.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 46 | 1.26 | 0.48 | 23.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 46 | 1.28 | -0.28 | 23.5 |
| Jackson MS | 46 | 1.48 | -0.09 | 23.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 45 | 1.51 | 0.36 | 23.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 46 | 1.57 | 0.70 | 23.5 |
| Juneau AK | 46 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 23.5 |
| Nashville TN | 45 | 1.73 | 0.13 | 23.0 |
| Richmond VA | 45 | 1.76 | 1.27 | 23.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 45 | 1.82 | 0.84 | 23.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 46 | 1.89 | 0.72 | 23.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 45 | 1.89 | 0.56 | 23.0 |
| Madison WI | 45 | 1.93 | 1.40 | 23.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 46 | 2.00 | 0.22 | 23.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 46 | 2.00 | 1.04 | 23.5 |
| Lansing MI | 46 | 2.00 | 1.52 | 23.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 46 | 2.04 | 0.87 | 23.5 |
| Salem OR | 45 | 2.07 | 1.44 | 23.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 46 | 2.13 | 0.70 | 23.5 |
| Topeka KS | 46 | 2.24 | 2.20 | 23.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 46 | 2.26 | -1.30 | 23.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 46 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 23.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 45 | 2.38 | 0.20 | 23.0 |
| Springfield IL | 46 | 2.43 | 2.00 | 23.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 46 | 2.48 | -2.13 | 23.5 |
| Dover DE | 46 | 2.50 | 0.24 | 23.5 |
| Pierre SD | 45 | 2.56 | 2.51 | 23.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 46 | 2.59 | 2.07 | 23.5 |
| Boise ID | 46 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 23.5 |
| Helena MT | 46 | 3.07 | 1.89 | 23.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 46 | 3.20 | 2.98 | 23.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 46 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 23.5 |
| Charleston WV | 45 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 23.0 |
| Olympia WA | 45 | 3.24 | -0.71 | 23.0 |
| Denver CO | 46 | 3.28 | 2.76 | 23.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 46 | 3.28 | -1.59 | 23.5 |
| Columbia SC | 45 | 3.53 | -3.53 | 23.0 |
| Hartford CT | 46 | 3.67 | 2.54 | 23.5 |
| Augusta ME | 46 | 3.74 | 2.17 | 23.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 46 | 4.00 | 2.52 | 23.5 |
| Austin TX | 45 | 4.20 | 4.16 | 23.0 |
| Carson City NV | 46 | 4.35 | 3.78 | 23.5 |
| Providence RI | 45 | 4.69 | 4.60 | 23.0 |
| Boston MA | 46 | 4.74 | 4.52 | 23.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 45 | 5.16 | 3.29 | 23.0 |
| Concord NH | 46 | 5.17 | 4.26 | 23.5 |
| Albany NY | 46 | 6.15 | 4.50 | 23.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 92.0°F | +5.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 45.0 |