Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 38 | 0.89 | 0.63 | 19.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 38 | 0.97 | -0.03 | 19.5 |
| Juneau AK | 38 | 1.13 | 0.66 | 19.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 38 | 1.13 | -0.03 | 19.5 |
| Columbus OH | 37 | 1.22 | 0.68 | 19.0 |
| Richmond VA | 37 | 1.24 | 0.65 | 19.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 38 | 1.34 | -0.39 | 19.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 38 | 1.37 | 0.58 | 19.5 |
| Jackson MS | 38 | 1.53 | -0.16 | 19.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 37 | 1.54 | 0.19 | 19.0 |
| Nashville TN | 37 | 1.57 | -0.38 | 19.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 38 | 1.63 | 0.95 | 19.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 38 | 1.68 | 0.53 | 19.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 37 | 1.86 | 0.73 | 19.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 38 | 1.87 | 0.66 | 19.5 |
| Lansing MI | 38 | 1.89 | 1.32 | 19.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 38 | 1.92 | 1.29 | 19.5 |
| Salem OR | 37 | 1.95 | 1.30 | 19.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 38 | 2.00 | 0.79 | 19.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 37 | 2.03 | 0.89 | 19.0 |
| Madison WI | 37 | 2.03 | 1.49 | 19.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 38 | 2.08 | 0.08 | 19.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 38 | 2.08 | 2.08 | 19.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 38 | 2.11 | 0.37 | 19.5 |
| Topeka KS | 38 | 2.13 | 2.08 | 19.5 |
| Springfield IL | 38 | 2.16 | 1.63 | 19.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 38 | 2.21 | -1.89 | 19.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 38 | 2.34 | -1.92 | 19.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 37 | 2.41 | -0.19 | 19.0 |
| Pierre SD | 37 | 2.54 | 2.49 | 19.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 38 | 2.58 | 2.32 | 19.5 |
| Dover DE | 38 | 2.61 | 0.61 | 19.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 38 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 19.5 |
| Olympia WA | 37 | 3.00 | 0.08 | 19.0 |
| Columbia SC | 37 | 3.19 | -3.19 | 19.0 |
| Charleston WV | 37 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 19.0 |
| Helena MT | 38 | 3.24 | 2.76 | 19.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 38 | 3.24 | -2.29 | 19.5 |
| Boise ID | 38 | 3.32 | 2.47 | 19.5 |
| Hartford CT | 38 | 3.37 | 2.05 | 19.5 |
| Denver CO | 38 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 19.5 |
| Austin TX | 37 | 3.89 | 3.84 | 19.0 |
| Providence RI | 37 | 4.22 | 4.11 | 19.0 |
| Augusta ME | 38 | 4.24 | 2.50 | 19.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 38 | 4.26 | 2.95 | 19.5 |
| Boston MA | 38 | 4.32 | 4.05 | 19.5 |
| Concord NH | 38 | 5.03 | 3.92 | 19.5 |
| Carson City NV | 38 | 5.08 | 4.55 | 19.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 37 | 5.43 | 3.16 | 19.0 |
| Albany NY | 38 | 5.50 | 3.50 | 19.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 102.0°F | +3.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 95.0°F | 99.0°F | -4.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 94.0°F | 83.0°F | +11.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 92.0°F | 90.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 92.0°F | 83.0°F | +9.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 96.0°F | 94.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 89.0°F | 81.0°F | +8.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 76.0°F | 84.0°F | -8.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 92.0°F | 77.0°F | +15.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 93.0°F | 93.0°F | +0.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 97.0°F | 95.0°F | +2.0° | 38.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 94.0°F | 93.0°F | +1.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 81.0°F | +7.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 99.0°F | 96.0°F | +3.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 93.0°F | 83.0°F | +10.0° | 37.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 88.0°F | 93.0°F | -5.0° | 37.0 |