Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.26 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.84 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 1.88 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.95 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.08 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.13 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.27 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.35 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.45 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.46 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.47 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.52 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.56 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.58 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.58 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.59 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.62 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.67 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.68 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.74 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.76 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.89 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.91 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.93 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.97 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.98 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 3.01 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.02 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.08 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.10 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.11 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.14 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.15 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.18 | -2.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 3.19 | 2.26 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.22 | 2.52 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 3.28 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.39 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 3.52 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 3.54 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.56 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.71 | 3.20 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.79 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 4.02 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 4.09 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 4.11 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 4.52 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 5.05 | 4.83 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 5.30 | 4.69 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 6.08 | 4.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 86.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 52.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 53.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 58.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |