Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.51 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 189 | 1.54 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 1.65 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 1.79 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 189 | 1.82 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 189 | 1.84 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 1.87 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 189 | 2.02 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.02 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 189 | 2.03 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 189 | 2.05 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.06 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 189 | 2.10 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.15 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 189 | 2.17 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 189 | 2.24 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.26 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.26 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 189 | 2.30 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 189 | 2.42 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 2.48 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.51 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 189 | 2.52 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 2.52 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.54 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.55 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 2.56 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 2.57 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.61 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 189 | 2.66 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 2.69 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 2.69 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 189 | 2.70 | -1.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 2.70 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 2.79 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.83 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 2.85 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 2.85 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 189 | 2.92 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 189 | 2.99 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 189 | 3.00 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 189 | 3.02 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.03 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 3.06 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 189 | 3.22 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 3.41 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 3.56 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 3.58 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 189 | 3.77 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 3.84 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 88.0°F | 86.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 MDT | Boise ID | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 67.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 94.0°F | 75.0°F | +19.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 63.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 95.0°F | 94.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 MDT | Helena MT | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 13:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 89.0°F | 79.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |