Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.53 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 1.68 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 1.73 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.76 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 1.79 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.86 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 1.88 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.01 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.02 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.03 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.07 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.08 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.13 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.15 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.18 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.20 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.29 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.31 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.32 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.38 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.42 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 2.42 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.43 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.47 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.48 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.49 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.58 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.61 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.61 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.62 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.65 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.68 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.74 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.74 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 2.76 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.83 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.84 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.99 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 3.06 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.16 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.19 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.24 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 3.38 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.45 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.52 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.54 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.59 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.60 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.77 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 4.14 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 49.0°F | 54.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |