Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.53 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.58 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.82 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.83 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 1.91 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 1.99 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.02 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 2.09 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.11 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.15 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.15 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.18 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.24 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.25 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.25 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.28 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.28 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.28 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.32 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.41 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.44 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.50 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.55 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.59 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.61 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.62 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.64 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.68 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.72 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.72 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.74 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.78 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.79 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.80 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.80 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.83 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.85 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.87 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.97 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.99 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.09 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 3.19 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 3.22 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.28 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.35 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.58 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 3.64 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 3.66 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 3.68 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.82 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 73.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |