Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 48 | 0.90 | 0.48 | 24.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 48 | 1.17 | -0.38 | 24.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 48 | 1.19 | -0.35 | 24.5 |
| Columbus OH | 47 | 1.26 | 0.57 | 24.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 48 | 1.27 | 0.40 | 24.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 48 | 1.35 | -0.40 | 24.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 47 | 1.47 | 0.36 | 24.0 |
| Jackson MS | 48 | 1.50 | -0.17 | 24.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 48 | 1.56 | 0.60 | 24.5 |
| Nashville TN | 47 | 1.70 | 0.09 | 24.0 |
| Juneau AK | 48 | 1.75 | 1.38 | 24.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 47 | 1.79 | 0.81 | 24.0 |
| Richmond VA | 47 | 1.79 | 1.32 | 24.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 48 | 1.92 | 0.21 | 24.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 48 | 1.96 | 1.00 | 24.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 48 | 1.96 | 0.54 | 24.5 |
| Lansing MI | 48 | 1.96 | 1.42 | 24.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 47 | 1.96 | 0.38 | 24.0 |
| Madison WI | 47 | 1.98 | 1.21 | 24.0 |
| Salem OR | 47 | 2.02 | 1.43 | 24.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 48 | 2.04 | 0.75 | 24.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 48 | 2.06 | 0.65 | 24.5 |
| Topeka KS | 48 | 2.19 | 2.15 | 24.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 48 | 2.29 | -1.13 | 24.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 48 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 24.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 47 | 2.45 | 0.36 | 24.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 48 | 2.46 | -2.13 | 24.5 |
| Springfield IL | 48 | 2.46 | 2.04 | 24.5 |
| Dover DE | 48 | 2.50 | 0.13 | 24.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 48 | 2.52 | 2.02 | 24.5 |
| Pierre SD | 47 | 2.57 | 2.53 | 24.0 |
| Boise ID | 48 | 2.94 | 2.27 | 24.5 |
| Helena MT | 48 | 3.06 | 1.77 | 24.5 |
| Charleston WV | 47 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 24.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 48 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 24.5 |
| Saint Paul MN | 48 | 3.21 | 3.00 | 24.5 |
| Denver CO | 48 | 3.27 | 2.77 | 24.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 48 | 3.27 | -1.40 | 24.5 |
| Olympia WA | 47 | 3.38 | -0.96 | 24.0 |
| Columbia SC | 47 | 3.60 | -3.60 | 24.0 |
| Hartford CT | 48 | 3.65 | 2.31 | 24.5 |
| Augusta ME | 48 | 3.73 | 1.94 | 24.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 48 | 4.00 | 2.58 | 24.5 |
| Austin TX | 47 | 4.02 | 3.98 | 24.0 |
| Carson City NV | 48 | 4.29 | 3.75 | 24.5 |
| Providence RI | 47 | 4.53 | 4.45 | 24.0 |
| Boston MA | 48 | 4.71 | 4.50 | 24.5 |
| Concord NH | 48 | 5.10 | 4.23 | 24.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 47 | 5.11 | 3.11 | 24.0 |
| Albany NY | 48 | 5.92 | 4.33 | 24.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 79.0°F | 75.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 47.0 |