Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.27 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 1.34 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 1.95 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.02 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.02 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.05 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.08 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.09 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.18 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 2.22 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 2.24 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.25 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 2.25 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.26 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 2.29 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.37 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.40 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 2.45 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 2.49 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 2.50 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.51 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.53 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.54 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 2.58 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 2.60 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 2.64 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 2.67 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.67 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.72 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.74 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.76 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 2.84 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 2.85 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.85 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.86 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 2.90 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 2.99 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.03 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.08 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 3.10 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 3.10 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.11 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 3.14 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 3.20 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 3.28 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 3.29 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.31 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 3.35 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.55 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.76 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 MST | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 50.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 MST | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Springfield IL | 39.0°F | 36.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Topeka KS | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 55.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Lansing MI | 39.0°F | 40.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Jackson MS | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 MST | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 45.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 38.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 PST | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 34.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 35.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 37.0°F | 33.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Columbus OH | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 PST | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Providence RI | 43.0°F | 48.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 EST | Columbia SC | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |