Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh NC | 20 | 0.80 | -0.50 | 10.5 |
| Columbus OH | 19 | 0.84 | 0.21 | 10.0 |
| Richmond VA | 19 | 0.84 | 0.32 | 10.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 20 | 0.95 | -0.35 | 10.5 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 20 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 10.5 |
| Juneau AK | 20 | 1.15 | 0.45 | 10.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 20 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 10.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 20 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 10.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 19 | 1.42 | 0.58 | 10.0 |
| Nashville TN | 19 | 1.53 | -0.79 | 10.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 20 | 1.55 | 0.95 | 10.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 20 | 1.60 | 0.90 | 10.5 |
| Pierre SD | 19 | 1.63 | 1.53 | 10.0 |
| Charleston WV | 19 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 10.0 |
| Madison WI | 19 | 1.63 | 0.58 | 10.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 20 | 1.70 | 0.70 | 10.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 19 | 1.74 | -1.11 | 10.0 |
| Jackson MS | 20 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 10.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 20 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 10.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 20 | 2.00 | -0.30 | 10.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 20 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 10.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 20 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 10.5 |
| Springfield IL | 20 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 10.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 19 | 2.11 | 1.47 | 10.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 19 | 2.16 | 1.53 | 10.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 20 | 2.20 | -2.20 | 10.5 |
| Topeka KS | 20 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 10.5 |
| Salem OR | 19 | 2.32 | 1.47 | 10.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 20 | 2.35 | 2.25 | 10.5 |
| Columbia SC | 19 | 2.47 | -2.47 | 10.0 |
| Lansing MI | 20 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 10.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 20 | 2.55 | -1.75 | 10.5 |
| Dover DE | 20 | 2.60 | 0.80 | 10.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 20 | 2.95 | 0.85 | 10.5 |
| Hartford CT | 20 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 10.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 20 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 10.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 20 | 3.05 | -1.25 | 10.5 |
| Providence RI | 19 | 3.26 | 3.05 | 10.0 |
| Helena MT | 20 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 10.5 |
| Boston MA | 20 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 10.5 |
| Denver CO | 20 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 10.5 |
| Carson City NV | 20 | 3.90 | 2.90 | 10.5 |
| Austin TX | 19 | 4.16 | 4.16 | 10.0 |
| Boise ID | 20 | 4.55 | 3.25 | 10.5 |
| Olympia WA | 19 | 4.68 | 0.16 | 10.0 |
| Albany NY | 20 | 5.30 | 4.40 | 10.5 |
| Augusta ME | 20 | 5.95 | 5.85 | 10.5 |
| Concord NH | 20 | 6.05 | 4.55 | 10.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 19 | 6.05 | 5.42 | 10.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 20 | 6.45 | 6.45 | 10.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 104.0°F | +0.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 81.0°F | 76.0°F | +5.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 89.0°F | 85.0°F | +4.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 86.0°F | 77.0°F | +9.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 85.0°F | 79.0°F | +6.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 86.0°F | 81.0°F | +5.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 91.0°F | 88.0°F | +3.0° | 20.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 19.0 |
| 2026-07-14 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 19.0 |