Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.21 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 1.63 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 1.97 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.03 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.13 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.29 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.32 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.44 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 2.45 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.50 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.53 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.54 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 2.55 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.56 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.65 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.66 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.68 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 2.70 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 2.72 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.74 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.78 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.78 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 2.88 | -2.24 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.90 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.90 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.92 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.93 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.97 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.98 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.03 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.03 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 3.03 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 3.07 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.07 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 3.09 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 3.11 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 3.13 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 3.14 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.19 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 3.44 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.52 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.69 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.85 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 3.99 | 2.53 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 4.01 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 4.01 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 4.56 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 4.64 | 4.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 4.82 | 3.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 5.76 | 4.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 37.0°F | 37.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 35.0°F | 34.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 36.0°F | 36.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 40.0°F | 42.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 33.0°F | 35.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 56.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |