Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1933
92832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.58°
1884 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 20:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Baton Rouge LA 38 0.89 0.63 19.5
Raleigh NC 38 0.97 -0.03 19.5
Juneau AK 38 1.13 0.66 19.5
Tallahassee FL 38 1.13 -0.03 19.5
Columbus OH 37 1.22 0.68 19.0
Richmond VA 37 1.24 0.65 19.0
Annapolis MD 38 1.34 -0.39 19.5
Jefferson City MO 38 1.37 0.58 19.5
Jackson MS 38 1.53 -0.16 19.5
Cheyenne WY 37 1.54 0.19 19.0
Nashville TN 37 1.57 -0.38 19.0
Honolulu HI 38 1.63 0.95 19.5
Indianapolis IN 38 1.68 0.53 19.5
Harrisburg PA 37 1.86 0.73 19.0
Frankfort KY 38 1.87 0.66 19.5
Lansing MI 38 1.89 1.32 19.5
Trenton NJ 38 1.92 1.29 19.5
Salem OR 37 1.95 1.30 19.0
Des Moines IA 38 2.00 0.79 19.5
Salt Lake City UT 37 2.03 0.89 19.0
Madison WI 37 2.03 1.49 19.0
Montgomery AL 38 2.08 0.08 19.5
Bismarck ND 38 2.08 2.08 19.5
Little Rock AR 38 2.11 0.37 19.5
Topeka KS 38 2.13 2.08 19.5
Springfield IL 38 2.16 1.63 19.5
Sacramento CA 38 2.21 -1.89 19.5
Atlanta GA 38 2.34 -1.92 19.5
Oklahoma City OK 37 2.41 -0.19 19.0
Pierre SD 37 2.54 2.49 19.0
Saint Paul MN 38 2.58 2.32 19.5
Dover DE 38 2.61 0.61 19.5
Lincoln NE 38 2.95 2.95 19.5
Olympia WA 37 3.00 0.08 19.0
Columbia SC 37 3.19 -3.19 19.0
Charleston WV 37 3.22 3.22 19.0
Helena MT 38 3.24 2.76 19.5
Santa Fe NM 38 3.24 -2.29 19.5
Boise ID 38 3.32 2.47 19.5
Hartford CT 38 3.37 2.05 19.5
Denver CO 38 3.55 3.55 19.5
Austin TX 37 3.89 3.84 19.0
Providence RI 37 4.22 4.11 19.0
Augusta ME 38 4.24 2.50 19.5
Phoenix AZ 38 4.26 2.95 19.5
Boston MA 38 4.32 4.05 19.5
Concord NH 38 5.03 3.92 19.5
Carson City NV 38 5.08 4.55 19.5
Montpelier VT 37 5.43 3.16 19.0
Albany NY 38 5.50 3.50 19.5

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Montgomery AL 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 12:00 AKDT Juneau AK 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MST Phoenix AZ 105.0°F 102.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Little Rock AR 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 13:00 PDT Sacramento CA 95.0°F 99.0°F -4.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT Denver CO 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Hartford CT 94.0°F 83.0°F +11.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Dover DE 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 90.0°F 91.0°F -1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Atlanta GA 84.0°F 89.0°F -5.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 10:00 HST Honolulu HI 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT Boise ID 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Springfield IL 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Des Moines IA 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Topeka KS 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Frankfort KY 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Augusta ME 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Annapolis MD 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Boston MA 92.0°F 83.0°F +9.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Lansing MI 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Jackson MS 87.0°F 88.0°F -1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT Helena MT 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Lincoln NE 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 13:00 PDT Carson City NV 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Concord NH 89.0°F 81.0°F +8.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Trenton NJ 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 76.0°F 84.0°F -8.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Albany NY 92.0°F 77.0°F +15.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Raleigh NC 93.0°F 93.0°F +0.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Bismarck ND 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Columbus OH 94.0°F 93.0°F +1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 88.0°F 81.0°F +7.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 PDT Salem OR 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Providence RI 93.0°F 83.0°F +10.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT Columbia SC 88.0°F 93.0°F -5.0° 37.0