Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
91183
4376832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.64°
8700 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-28 05:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Des Moines IA 174 1.74 -0.67 48.0
Saint Paul MN 174 1.76 -0.74 48.0
Albany NY 174 1.76 -0.60 48.0
Providence RI 174 1.78 -1.07 48.0
Honolulu HI 174 1.99 -1.83 48.0
Boston MA 174 1.99 -0.33 48.0
Springfield IL 174 2.12 0.80 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 174 2.16 0.09 48.0
Hartford CT 174 2.17 -1.04 48.0
Atlanta GA 174 2.24 1.39 48.0
Lansing MI 174 2.25 0.42 48.0
Richmond VA 174 2.27 -0.14 48.0
Little Rock AR 174 2.28 1.49 48.0
Bismarck ND 174 2.33 0.45 48.0
Trenton NJ 174 2.34 -0.75 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 174 2.39 0.05 48.0
Columbus OH 174 2.41 1.05 48.0
Jackson MS 174 2.44 1.57 48.0
Salem OR 174 2.48 -0.32 48.0
Jefferson City MO 174 2.51 0.28 48.0
Juneau AK 174 2.52 0.13 48.0
Indianapolis IN 174 2.53 0.91 48.0
Madison WI 174 2.55 0.04 48.0
Topeka KS 174 2.56 -0.75 48.0
Austin TX 174 2.56 1.96 48.0
Tallahassee FL 174 2.57 1.33 48.0
Santa Fe NM 174 2.60 -0.62 48.0
Boise ID 174 2.66 0.95 48.0
Annapolis MD 174 2.66 0.72 48.0
Montgomery AL 174 2.69 1.16 48.0
Pierre SD 174 2.71 -0.01 48.0
Sacramento CA 174 2.74 2.09 48.0
Dover DE 174 2.74 0.04 48.0
Frankfort KY 174 2.76 0.80 48.0
Helena MT 174 2.78 1.87 48.0
Olympia WA 174 2.82 1.34 48.0
Carson City NV 174 2.87 0.45 48.0
Raleigh NC 174 2.94 0.83 48.0
Columbia SC 174 2.95 1.55 48.0
Charleston WV 174 3.01 1.48 48.0
Lincoln NE 174 3.03 -2.14 48.0
Harrisburg PA 174 3.11 -0.84 48.0
Denver CO 174 3.13 1.64 48.0
Cheyenne WY 174 3.14 -0.34 48.0
Augusta ME 174 3.22 -2.80 48.0
Concord NH 174 3.47 -2.15 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 174 3.62 3.33 48.0
Montpelier VT 174 3.63 1.61 48.0
Phoenix AZ 174 3.87 0.13 48.0
Nashville TN 174 3.97 2.05 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Montgomery AL 64.0°F 64.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 21:00 AKDT Juneau AK 50.0°F 43.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 22:00 MST Phoenix AZ 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Little Rock AR 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 22:00 PDT Sacramento CA 60.0°F 59.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 23:00 MDT Denver CO 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Hartford CT 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Dover DE 61.0°F 63.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 69.0°F 64.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Atlanta GA 62.0°F 55.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 19:00 HST Honolulu HI 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 23:00 MDT Boise ID 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Springfield IL 60.0°F 52.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Des Moines IA 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Topeka KS 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Frankfort KY 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 72.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Augusta ME 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Annapolis MD 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Boston MA 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Lansing MI 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 60.0°F 58.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Jackson MS 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 23:00 MDT Helena MT 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Lincoln NE 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 22:00 PDT Carson City NV 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Concord NH 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Trenton NJ 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 23:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Albany NY 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Raleigh NC 62.0°F 64.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Bismarck ND 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Columbus OH 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 00:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 22:00 PDT Salem OR 54.0°F 56.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 59.0°F 61.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Providence RI 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-28 01:00 EDT Columbia SC 61.0°F 59.0°F +2.0° 48.0