Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 191 | 1.50 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 1.54 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 1.65 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.83 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.83 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.84 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 1.88 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.03 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.04 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.05 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.06 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.09 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.12 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.15 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.16 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.25 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.28 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 2.28 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.31 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.43 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.49 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.50 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.53 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.54 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.54 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.55 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.55 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 2.59 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.65 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.67 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.70 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.72 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.76 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.77 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.80 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.83 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 2.83 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.84 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.90 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 2.96 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 3.01 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.02 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 3.04 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.12 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.24 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 3.41 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.54 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 3.55 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.74 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.82 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 90.0°F | 86.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 98.0°F | 98.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 65.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 84.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 95.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 61.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 88.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 76.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |