Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 177 | 1.26 | -0.45 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 177 | 1.36 | -0.53 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 177 | 1.95 | -0.46 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 177 | 1.99 | 0.50 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 177 | 1.99 | -1.01 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 177 | 2.06 | -0.24 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 177 | 2.08 | 0.39 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 177 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 177 | 2.23 | -0.43 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 177 | 2.23 | -0.68 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 177 | 2.25 | 0.71 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 177 | 2.27 | 0.20 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 177 | 2.27 | -0.16 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 177 | 2.28 | 0.51 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 177 | 2.35 | -0.92 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 177 | 2.36 | -0.59 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 177 | 2.40 | 1.35 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 177 | 2.41 | 0.80 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 177 | 2.46 | 0.60 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 177 | 2.51 | -0.99 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 177 | 2.52 | -0.36 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 177 | 2.54 | -0.12 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 177 | 2.57 | -1.21 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 177 | 2.62 | 1.14 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 177 | 2.67 | 0.17 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 177 | 2.68 | 1.45 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 177 | 2.68 | 1.06 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 177 | 2.69 | 0.12 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 177 | 2.72 | -0.58 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 177 | 2.73 | -2.03 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 177 | 2.77 | -1.85 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 177 | 2.84 | 0.42 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 177 | 2.86 | 1.02 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 177 | 2.86 | 1.63 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 177 | 2.88 | 0.93 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 177 | 2.88 | 1.02 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 177 | 2.99 | -0.51 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 177 | 3.02 | 2.12 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 177 | 3.06 | -1.11 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 177 | 3.07 | 1.62 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 177 | 3.10 | 0.62 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 177 | 3.15 | -2.43 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 177 | 3.18 | 0.00 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 177 | 3.23 | -2.41 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 177 | 3.31 | -0.81 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 177 | 3.32 | -2.20 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 177 | 3.34 | -0.81 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 177 | 3.40 | 2.26 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 177 | 3.56 | -1.03 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 177 | 3.76 | 0.25 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 MST | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 54.0°F | -10.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 MST | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Springfield IL | 37.0°F | 32.0°F | +5.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Topeka KS | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 36.0°F | 40.0°F | -4.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 45.0°F | 56.0°F | -11.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Boston MA | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Lansing MI | 37.0°F | 38.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Jackson MS | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 MST | Helena MT | 38.0°F | 40.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 PST | Carson City NV | 39.0°F | 30.0°F | +9.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 35.0°F | 35.0°F | +0.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 48.0°F | -6.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Columbus OH | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-11-09 07:00 EST | Columbia SC | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |