Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
1583
76032 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.48°
1534 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 13:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Richmond VA 30 0.83 0.10 15.5
Baton Rouge LA 31 0.94 0.74 16.0
Raleigh NC 31 1.00 -0.10 16.0
Tallahassee FL 31 1.10 0.26 16.0
Juneau AK 31 1.16 0.71 16.0
Columbus OH 30 1.17 0.50 15.5
Annapolis MD 31 1.23 -0.77 16.0
Jefferson City MO 31 1.39 0.42 16.0
Honolulu HI 31 1.42 0.77 16.0
Nashville TN 30 1.47 -0.87 15.5
Indianapolis IN 31 1.48 0.06 16.0
Cheyenne WY 30 1.50 0.63 15.5
Trenton NJ 31 1.52 0.74 16.0
Oklahoma City OK 30 1.53 -1.13 15.5
Frankfort KY 31 1.55 0.06 16.0
Jackson MS 31 1.68 -0.13 16.0
Little Rock AR 31 1.81 -0.32 16.0
Harrisburg PA 30 1.83 0.43 15.5
Lansing MI 31 1.87 1.16 16.0
Topeka KS 31 1.90 1.84 16.0
Salem OR 30 1.93 1.13 15.5
Des Moines IA 31 1.97 0.48 16.0
Salt Lake City UT 30 2.00 0.73 15.5
Sacramento CA 31 2.03 -1.65 16.0
Bismarck ND 31 2.06 2.06 16.0
Madison WI 30 2.20 1.53 15.5
Atlanta GA 31 2.26 -1.74 16.0
Montgomery AL 31 2.32 0.13 16.0
Springfield IL 31 2.35 1.90 16.0
Dover DE 31 2.45 0.00 16.0
Pierre SD 30 2.60 2.53 15.5
Santa Fe NM 31 2.68 -1.52 16.0
Hartford CT 31 2.71 1.10 16.0
Charleston WV 30 2.73 2.73 15.5
Saint Paul MN 31 2.74 2.55 16.0
Lincoln NE 31 2.90 2.90 16.0
Austin TX 30 3.03 2.97 15.5
Columbia SC 30 3.33 -3.33 15.5
Olympia WA 30 3.43 0.37 15.5
Boston MA 31 3.48 3.16 16.0
Providence RI 30 3.50 3.37 15.5
Helena MT 31 3.52 2.94 16.0
Denver CO 31 3.58 3.58 16.0
Boise ID 31 3.87 2.84 16.0
Albany NY 31 4.58 2.13 16.0
Phoenix AZ 31 4.90 3.42 16.0
Augusta ME 31 4.90 2.84 16.0
Concord NH 31 4.97 3.61 16.0
Montpelier VT 30 5.03 2.23 15.5
Carson City NV 31 5.65 5.00 16.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Montgomery AL 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 05:00 AKDT Juneau AK 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MST Phoenix AZ 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Little Rock AR 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 06:00 PDT Sacramento CA 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT Denver CO 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Hartford CT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Dover DE 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Atlanta GA 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 03:00 HST Honolulu HI 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT Boise ID 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Springfield IL 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Des Moines IA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Topeka KS 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Frankfort KY 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Augusta ME 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Boston MA 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Lansing MI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Jackson MS 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT Helena MT 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Lincoln NE 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 06:00 PDT Carson City NV 61.0°F 52.0°F +9.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Concord NH 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Trenton NJ 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 62.0°F 65.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Albany NY 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Raleigh NC 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Bismarck ND 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Columbus OH 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 PDT Salem OR 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Providence RI 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT Columbia SC 76.0°F 82.0°F -6.0° 30.0