Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.18 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.52 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 1.54 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 1.65 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 1.87 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 1.98 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 1.99 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.05 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.06 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.09 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 2.11 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.13 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.14 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.15 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 2.19 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.20 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.21 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.22 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.27 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 2.30 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.33 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.40 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.41 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.41 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.42 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 2.55 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.61 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.61 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.73 | -2.06 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.81 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.82 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.86 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 2.96 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.00 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.02 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.06 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 3.11 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.11 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 3.24 | -3.15 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 3.24 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 3.25 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 3.31 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 3.32 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 3.46 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.76 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 3.80 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 3.80 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 4.02 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 10:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 95.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Dover DE | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 84.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 MDT | Boise ID | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 82.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Boston MA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 81.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Concord NH | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 12:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 13:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 11:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |