Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.32 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.74 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.90 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 1.92 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 1.96 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.31 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.32 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.37 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.40 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.41 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.45 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 2.49 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.52 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.55 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.55 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 2.57 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.60 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.65 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.66 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.70 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.70 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.70 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.72 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.80 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.87 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.88 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 2.90 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.96 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 3.07 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.12 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.15 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 3.16 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 3.16 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.18 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 3.19 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.23 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 3.26 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 3.29 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 3.32 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.39 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.48 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.62 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.66 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 3.66 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.75 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.79 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.81 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.85 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 4.37 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 5.12 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 91.0°F | 91.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 90.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 77.0°F | 67.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 91.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 57.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 78.0°F | 58.0°F | +20.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |