Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.33 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 1.81 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 1.96 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.02 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.04 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.19 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.22 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.33 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.35 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.43 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.44 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.44 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.50 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.51 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.58 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.59 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.60 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.62 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 2.63 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.64 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.79 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 2.81 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.83 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.86 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.88 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.92 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.01 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.03 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.07 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.11 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 3.13 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 3.16 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.21 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 3.22 | -2.61 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.24 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 3.35 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.39 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 3.41 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 3.63 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.64 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.66 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 3.67 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 3.76 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.95 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 4.09 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 4.11 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 4.35 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 4.42 | 4.01 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.87 | 4.24 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 6.21 | 3.49 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 70.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 50.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 35.0°F | 39.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 37.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 47.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |