Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.36 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.70 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 1.83 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 1.90 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 1.90 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 1.95 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 2.01 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.05 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.06 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.08 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.10 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.13 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 2.14 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.14 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 2.24 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.32 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.33 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 2.34 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.35 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 2.38 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 2.39 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.40 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.43 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 2.44 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.45 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.50 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.50 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.52 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 2.53 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.53 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.56 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.56 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.70 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.71 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.74 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.83 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.92 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 3.03 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.04 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.12 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 3.13 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 3.23 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.27 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.37 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.52 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 3.57 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.68 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 3.82 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.83 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 92.0°F | -10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 96.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 76.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 67.0°F | 78.0°F | -11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 65.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-03 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |