Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 186 | 1.23 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 1.48 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 1.66 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 1.78 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.81 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 1.83 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.88 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 1.91 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 1.92 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.04 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.10 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.11 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.19 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.21 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.22 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.24 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.26 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.32 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.34 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.34 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 2.38 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 2.40 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.43 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.44 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.44 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.44 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.45 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.46 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.48 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 2.52 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.55 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.57 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.59 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.62 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.67 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 2.68 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.70 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.78 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 2.78 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.84 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.11 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.38 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.40 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.55 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.65 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.68 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.73 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.75 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.94 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 3.97 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 72.0°F | 78.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 73.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |