Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.23 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 1.66 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.96 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.07 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.18 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 2.25 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.30 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.40 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.45 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.48 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.53 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.54 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.57 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.57 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.66 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.67 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.68 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.68 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.71 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.73 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.73 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.80 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.87 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.87 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.87 | 0.00 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.89 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.91 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.94 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.96 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.99 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.99 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.01 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.04 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 3.10 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.11 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.13 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.14 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.14 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.18 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 3.38 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 3.54 | 2.96 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 3.66 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.79 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 3.93 | 2.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.96 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 4.06 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 4.49 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 4.56 | 4.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 4.79 | 3.75 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 5.70 | 4.39 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 44.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 41.0°F | 39.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 32.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 37.0°F | 31.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 43.0°F | 36.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 45.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 33.0°F | 25.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 33.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |