Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.16 | -0.42 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 1.75 | -1.09 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 1.85 | 0.01 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 1.91 | 0.75 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 1.93 | -0.65 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 1.99 | 0.47 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 2.07 | -0.37 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.10 | -0.27 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 2.12 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.21 | -0.13 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 2.33 | -0.62 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.34 | 1.34 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.35 | 0.64 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 2.44 | -0.02 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 2.45 | 0.48 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.50 | -0.54 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 2.54 | -1.30 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.55 | -1.08 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 2.55 | 0.41 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.58 | -1.26 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 2.60 | 0.60 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.60 | -0.30 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 2.62 | 1.03 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.64 | 0.76 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 2.68 | -0.42 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.70 | -2.55 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.70 | -0.14 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 2.71 | -0.63 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.76 | -0.66 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 2.86 | -2.13 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.94 | -0.68 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 2.94 | 2.14 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 2.98 | -0.32 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.00 | -1.00 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 3.04 | -2.18 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.07 | 1.37 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.07 | -1.56 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 3.07 | 2.12 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.07 | 0.73 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 3.08 | -2.23 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 3.16 | 1.39 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 3.19 | 0.28 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 3.35 | -0.85 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.36 | 1.75 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 3.41 | -2.29 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 3.45 | 0.95 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.57 | -0.56 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.59 | 0.37 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.74 | 2.61 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 56.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 MST | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 MST | Boise ID | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 76.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 52.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 MST | Helena MT | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 PST | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 43.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 PST | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 EST | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |