Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
90183
4328832 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.67°
8900 matched hours
Last good run
2026-09-27 09:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Albany NY 178 1.79 -0.81 48.0
Saint Paul MN 178 1.84 -0.58 48.0
Honolulu HI 178 1.94 -1.79 48.0
Des Moines IA 178 1.94 -0.42 48.0
Springfield IL 178 2.02 0.89 48.0
Little Rock AR 178 2.04 1.20 48.0
Boston MA 178 2.04 -0.62 48.0
Bismarck ND 178 2.12 0.72 48.0
Providence RI 178 2.12 -1.45 48.0
Oklahoma City OK 178 2.15 0.27 48.0
Lansing MI 178 2.16 0.56 48.0
Salt Lake City UT 178 2.23 -0.04 48.0
Richmond VA 178 2.24 -0.12 48.0
Madison WI 178 2.28 0.25 48.0
Hartford CT 178 2.29 -1.21 48.0
Austin TX 178 2.31 1.62 48.0
Boise ID 178 2.34 0.43 48.0
Indianapolis IN 178 2.37 0.98 48.0
Trenton NJ 178 2.37 -0.76 48.0
Atlanta GA 178 2.39 1.65 48.0
Helena MT 178 2.39 1.48 48.0
Jackson MS 178 2.43 1.63 48.0
Columbus OH 178 2.49 1.21 48.0
Pierre SD 178 2.53 0.12 48.0
Montgomery AL 178 2.55 1.49 48.0
Juneau AK 178 2.59 -0.38 48.0
Tallahassee FL 178 2.60 1.43 48.0
Topeka KS 178 2.63 -0.34 48.0
Jefferson City MO 178 2.66 0.37 48.0
Frankfort KY 178 2.79 0.66 48.0
Santa Fe NM 178 2.83 0.07 48.0
Annapolis MD 178 2.84 0.21 48.0
Columbia SC 178 2.84 1.21 48.0
Lincoln NE 178 2.88 -1.60 48.0
Sacramento CA 178 2.91 2.51 48.0
Olympia WA 178 2.92 1.74 48.0
Dover DE 178 2.93 -0.30 48.0
Salem OR 178 2.93 0.87 48.0
Carson City NV 178 3.05 0.92 48.0
Raleigh NC 178 3.06 0.79 48.0
Cheyenne WY 178 3.16 -0.38 48.0
Harrisburg PA 178 3.17 -1.11 48.0
Charleston WV 178 3.19 1.89 48.0
Augusta ME 178 3.34 -2.26 48.0
Denver CO 178 3.36 1.84 48.0
Baton Rouge LA 178 3.60 3.29 48.0
Concord NH 178 3.64 -1.43 48.0
Nashville TN 178 3.98 2.60 48.0
Montpelier VT 178 3.98 2.16 48.0
Phoenix AZ 178 4.25 -0.42 48.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Montgomery AL 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 01:00 AKDT Juneau AK 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 02:00 MST Phoenix AZ 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Little Rock AR 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 02:00 PDT Sacramento CA 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 03:00 MDT Denver CO 57.0°F 59.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Hartford CT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Dover DE 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 62.0°F 58.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Atlanta GA 58.0°F 52.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-26 23:00 HST Honolulu HI 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 03:00 MDT Boise ID 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Springfield IL 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Des Moines IA 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Topeka KS 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Frankfort KY 49.0°F 47.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Augusta ME 53.0°F 53.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Annapolis MD 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Boston MA 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Lansing MI 45.0°F 45.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 58.0°F 59.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Jackson MS 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 03:00 MDT Helena MT 45.0°F 38.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Lincoln NE 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 02:00 PDT Carson City NV 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Concord NH 53.0°F 56.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Trenton NJ 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 03:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Albany NY 54.0°F 59.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Raleigh NC 54.0°F 57.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Bismarck ND 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Columbus OH 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 04:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 02:00 PDT Salem OR 51.0°F 53.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Providence RI 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-27 05:00 EDT Columbia SC 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0