Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.16 | -0.42 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 1.87 | 0.02 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 1.90 | -0.33 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 1.94 | -1.34 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.03 | 0.56 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.11 | -0.27 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.11 | 0.11 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.13 | -0.27 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 2.15 | -0.28 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.17 | 0.88 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 2.39 | 0.07 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.41 | 0.28 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.45 | -0.37 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 2.46 | -0.72 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 2.50 | -1.75 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 2.55 | -1.44 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.58 | -2.38 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.58 | -1.28 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 2.61 | 0.12 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 2.65 | 0.28 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.67 | -1.41 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 2.69 | 1.25 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 2.69 | -0.25 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 2.72 | 0.09 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 2.73 | 0.02 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.77 | -0.26 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 2.78 | -1.13 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.78 | -1.70 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 2.78 | 1.82 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 2.78 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 2.79 | 0.67 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 2.84 | 1.57 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.85 | -0.70 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 2.95 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 2.97 | 0.63 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.97 | -1.16 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 2.97 | -0.73 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.97 | 0.57 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 3.01 | -2.23 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.04 | -1.10 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 3.06 | 2.01 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.08 | 1.21 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 3.11 | 0.68 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 3.12 | 1.48 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 3.17 | -1.88 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.23 | 0.51 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 3.46 | 1.07 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 3.72 | 0.49 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 4.09 | -1.61 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 4.14 | 3.31 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 68.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 12:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 83.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 MST | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 MST | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 63.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 MST | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 PST | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 PST | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 EST | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |