Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.58 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.71 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 1.77 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 1.78 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.81 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.85 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 1.87 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 1.96 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.00 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.06 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.08 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.10 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.13 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 2.15 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.16 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.18 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.28 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.32 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.37 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.39 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.40 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.45 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.46 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.46 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.48 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.57 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.58 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.60 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.62 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.67 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.67 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.70 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.71 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.75 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.80 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.82 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 2.98 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 3.03 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.17 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.18 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.31 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.36 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.47 | 2.77 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.48 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.53 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.55 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.55 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.80 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 4.21 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 75.0°F | 82.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 73.0°F | 80.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |