Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston MA | 9 | 0.56 | 0.11 | 5.0 |
| Providence RI | 8 | 0.63 | 0.13 | 4.5 |
| Honolulu HI | 9 | 0.67 | 0.22 | 5.0 |
| Pierre SD | 8 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 4.5 |
| Richmond VA | 8 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 4.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 9 | 0.78 | -0.11 | 5.0 |
| Jackson MS | 9 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 5.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 9 | 0.78 | -0.78 | 5.0 |
| Columbus OH | 8 | 0.88 | -0.13 | 4.5 |
| Nashville TN | 8 | 0.88 | -0.88 | 4.5 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 8 | 0.88 | -0.63 | 4.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 9 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 5.0 |
| Topeka KS | 9 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 5.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 9 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 5.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 9 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 5.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 9 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 5.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 9 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 5.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 9 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 5.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 9 | 1.11 | -0.44 | 5.0 |
| Juneau AK | 9 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 5.0 |
| Helena MT | 9 | 1.11 | -0.89 | 5.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 9 | 1.11 | -0.22 | 5.0 |
| Salem OR | 8 | 1.13 | -0.63 | 4.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 8 | 1.13 | -0.63 | 4.5 |
| Hartford CT | 9 | 1.22 | -0.78 | 5.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 9 | 1.33 | -0.67 | 5.0 |
| Lansing MI | 9 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 5.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 8 | 1.38 | -0.13 | 4.5 |
| Madison WI | 8 | 1.38 | -1.13 | 4.5 |
| Springfield IL | 9 | 1.44 | 0.33 | 5.0 |
| Charleston WV | 8 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 4.5 |
| Columbia SC | 8 | 1.75 | -1.75 | 4.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 9 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 5.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 9 | 2.00 | -2.00 | 5.0 |
| Boise ID | 9 | 2.00 | -0.89 | 5.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 8 | 2.00 | -1.00 | 4.5 |
| Austin TX | 8 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 4.5 |
| Dover DE | 9 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 5.0 |
| Augusta ME | 9 | 2.33 | 2.11 | 5.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 9 | 2.56 | -2.56 | 5.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 9 | 2.56 | 2.56 | 5.0 |
| Concord NH | 9 | 2.78 | -0.56 | 5.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 9 | 2.89 | -2.89 | 5.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 9 | 3.11 | -3.11 | 5.0 |
| Denver CO | 9 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 5.0 |
| Albany NY | 9 | 3.67 | 1.67 | 5.0 |
| Carson City NV | 9 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 8 | 4.38 | 3.13 | 4.5 |
| Olympia WA | 8 | 5.88 | 5.63 | 4.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 9 | 8.78 | 8.78 | 5.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 86.0°F | +7.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 83.0°F | 74.0°F | +9.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 87.0°F | 86.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 87.0°F | 80.0°F | +7.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 88.0°F | 79.0°F | +9.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 9.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 8.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 8.0 |