Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.31 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.57 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.78 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 1.95 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.05 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.15 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.15 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.19 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.21 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.22 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.25 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.34 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 2.35 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.37 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.43 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.44 | -1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.51 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.54 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.58 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.61 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.62 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.66 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.67 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.67 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.68 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.70 | -1.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.75 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.80 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 2.81 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.83 | 2.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.91 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.92 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.96 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.98 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.17 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.22 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 3.25 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 3.26 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 3.27 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 3.32 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.33 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.45 | -2.99 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.46 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.57 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 3.68 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 3.70 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.77 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 4.07 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 4.22 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 4.33 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 52.0°F | 47.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 30.0°F | 31.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 44.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 65.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |