Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 187 | 1.15 | -0.42 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 187 | 1.87 | 0.01 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 187 | 1.91 | -0.35 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 187 | 1.94 | -1.35 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 187 | 2.03 | 0.57 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 187 | 2.11 | -0.26 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 187 | 2.12 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 187 | 2.16 | -0.30 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 187 | 2.16 | -0.31 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 187 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 187 | 2.39 | 0.06 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 187 | 2.42 | 0.25 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 187 | 2.44 | -0.36 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 187 | 2.47 | -0.74 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 187 | 2.50 | -1.75 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 187 | 2.55 | -1.43 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 187 | 2.57 | -2.37 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 187 | 2.57 | -1.28 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 187 | 2.61 | 0.11 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 187 | 2.65 | 0.29 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 187 | 2.67 | -1.42 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 187 | 2.71 | 1.27 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 187 | 2.71 | -0.28 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 187 | 2.72 | 0.10 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 187 | 2.72 | 0.03 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 187 | 2.76 | -0.26 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 187 | 2.77 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 187 | 2.78 | -1.14 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 187 | 2.78 | -1.71 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 187 | 2.79 | 1.79 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 187 | 2.80 | 0.64 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 187 | 2.82 | 1.56 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 187 | 2.84 | -0.70 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 187 | 2.94 | 0.13 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 187 | 2.95 | 0.63 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 187 | 2.96 | 0.56 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 187 | 2.97 | -1.18 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 187 | 2.97 | -0.73 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 187 | 3.00 | -2.23 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 187 | 3.03 | -1.09 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 187 | 3.06 | 1.98 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 187 | 3.09 | 1.18 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 187 | 3.11 | 0.69 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 187 | 3.12 | 1.45 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 187 | 3.16 | -1.88 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 187 | 3.23 | 0.48 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 187 | 3.46 | 1.04 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 187 | 3.74 | 0.45 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 187 | 4.07 | -1.60 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 187 | 4.14 | 3.32 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 13:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 81.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 MST | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 MST | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 65.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 MST | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 PST | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Albany NY | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Columbus OH | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 14:00 PST | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 EST | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |