Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 1.51 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 1.54 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.81 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.83 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 1.91 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.02 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.02 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.12 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.13 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.13 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.18 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.19 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.22 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.23 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.24 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 2.27 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.28 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 2.30 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 2.30 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.43 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.44 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.49 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 2.54 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 2.58 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 2.62 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.66 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.68 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 2.69 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.73 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 2.75 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.77 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.78 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.83 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.83 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.85 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.86 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.89 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.91 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.01 | -2.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.03 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 3.08 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 3.16 | 2.98 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 3.25 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 3.34 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 3.35 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 3.63 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.63 | 2.97 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 3.67 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 3.71 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.76 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |