Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.42 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.55 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.62 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.68 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 1.89 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.92 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 1.92 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.99 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.11 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.12 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.14 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.15 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.16 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.16 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.18 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.21 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.22 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.30 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.45 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.48 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.50 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.52 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.57 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.57 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.58 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.63 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.64 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.67 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.68 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.70 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.72 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.75 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.75 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.79 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.83 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.87 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.89 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.89 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.91 | 2.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.00 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.01 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.09 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 3.16 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 3.19 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.20 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 3.28 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.52 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 3.72 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.99 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 4.01 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 72.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 47.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 54.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 73.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 60.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 67.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |