Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 184 | 1.17 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.64 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.66 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.72 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.79 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.80 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.80 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.96 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.99 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.04 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.19 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.21 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.22 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.24 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.25 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.27 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.28 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.31 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.33 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.40 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.40 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.42 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.43 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.48 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.49 | -0.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.49 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.52 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.53 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.53 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.54 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.54 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.61 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.62 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.69 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.70 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.78 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.78 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.79 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.85 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.22 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.34 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.47 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.49 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.53 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.55 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.70 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.82 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 4.02 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 4.14 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 63.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 55.0°F | 45.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 71.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |