Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 1.40 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.48 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 1.76 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 1.80 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 1.87 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.97 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 1.97 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.02 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.05 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 2.06 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.09 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.13 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.21 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.21 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.25 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.27 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.29 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 2.30 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.32 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 2.34 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 2.35 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 2.35 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 2.40 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.42 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.45 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.53 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 2.60 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.64 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.76 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 2.76 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.79 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 2.81 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.81 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 2.82 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 2.83 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 2.92 | -2.12 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.09 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 3.12 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 3.20 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 3.23 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 3.31 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.32 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.35 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 3.37 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 3.40 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.50 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.55 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.81 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 3.84 | -3.62 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 4.57 | -1.96 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 62.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 34.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 94.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 52.0°F | 60.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 73.0°F | 66.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 69.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |