Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 173 | 1.43 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 173 | 1.65 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 173 | 1.71 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 173 | 1.78 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 173 | 1.79 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 173 | 1.90 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 173 | 1.90 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 173 | 1.95 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 173 | 1.99 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 173 | 2.05 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 173 | 2.05 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 173 | 2.08 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 173 | 2.14 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 173 | 2.17 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 173 | 2.18 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 173 | 2.25 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 173 | 2.27 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 173 | 2.28 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 173 | 2.32 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 173 | 2.38 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 173 | 2.40 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 173 | 2.46 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 173 | 2.49 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 173 | 2.50 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 173 | 2.51 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 173 | 2.55 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 173 | 2.56 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 173 | 2.60 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 173 | 2.62 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 173 | 2.64 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 173 | 2.68 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 173 | 2.72 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 173 | 2.76 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 173 | 2.79 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 173 | 2.79 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 173 | 2.84 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 173 | 2.91 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 173 | 3.00 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 173 | 3.06 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 173 | 3.16 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 173 | 3.20 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 173 | 3.31 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 173 | 3.31 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 173 | 3.51 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 173 | 3.53 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 173 | 3.54 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 173 | 3.65 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 173 | 3.65 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 173 | 3.68 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 173 | 3.99 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 20:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 87.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 77.0°F | 71.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 MDT | Denver CO | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 18:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Boston MA | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 22:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 52.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 23:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-01 21:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Providence RI | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-02 00:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |