Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.24 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.80 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 1.84 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.94 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.07 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.09 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.29 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.34 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.41 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.43 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.44 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.52 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.54 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.57 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.60 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.64 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.64 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.70 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.71 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 2.74 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.81 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.85 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.86 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.87 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.94 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.98 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.00 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.01 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.04 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.06 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.09 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.12 | -2.60 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 3.13 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.15 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.16 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.20 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.27 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.38 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.48 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.55 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 3.58 | 2.20 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.60 | 3.09 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.91 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.98 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 4.01 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 4.08 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 4.52 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 5.04 | 4.82 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 5.19 | 4.54 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 5.97 | 4.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 72.0°F | 79.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 75.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 64.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 39.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 55.0°F | 64.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 37.0°F | 34.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 37.0°F | 42.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |