Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 190 | 1.03 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 1.53 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.57 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.61 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 1.81 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 1.85 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 1.87 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 1.91 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.01 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 2.01 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.19 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.25 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.25 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.26 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.26 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.26 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.31 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 2.39 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 2.40 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.40 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.41 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.44 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 2.48 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 2.54 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.64 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.68 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.70 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 2.76 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 2.80 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 2.84 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.84 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 2.84 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.90 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.91 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 2.92 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 2.94 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 3.13 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.13 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.14 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 3.14 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 3.23 | -3.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.24 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.40 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 3.41 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.52 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 3.63 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.74 | 3.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 4.07 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 88.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 97.0°F | 96.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 78.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |