Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 188 | 0.93 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.63 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 1.63 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.66 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 1.71 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 1.72 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 1.91 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 1.91 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 1.93 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.02 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.04 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.09 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.11 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.14 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.16 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.23 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.28 | -1.32 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.30 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.33 | -0.84 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.41 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.45 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.49 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.49 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.50 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.50 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.52 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 2.54 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.60 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.63 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.65 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.69 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 2.74 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 2.77 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.85 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.85 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.86 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 2.86 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.89 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.91 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 3.03 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.22 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.30 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 3.38 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.45 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.61 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.62 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 3.63 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.66 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.81 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 4.17 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 83.0°F | 82.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 72.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 76.0°F | 83.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |