Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annapolis MD | 15 | 0.73 | 0.07 | 8.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 15 | 0.73 | -0.33 | 8.0 |
| Columbus OH | 14 | 0.93 | 0.21 | 7.5 |
| Pierre SD | 14 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 7.5 |
| Cheyenne WY | 14 | 0.93 | -0.21 | 7.5 |
| Nashville TN | 14 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 7.5 |
| Richmond VA | 14 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 7.5 |
| Juneau AK | 15 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 8.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 15 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 8.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 15 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 8.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 15 | 1.40 | 0.87 | 8.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 15 | 1.47 | -0.13 | 8.0 |
| Columbia SC | 14 | 1.50 | -1.50 | 7.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 15 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 8.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 15 | 1.60 | -1.20 | 8.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 15 | 1.60 | 1.47 | 8.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 14 | 1.64 | 0.79 | 7.5 |
| Charleston WV | 14 | 1.64 | 1.64 | 7.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 15 | 1.67 | 0.47 | 8.0 |
| Springfield IL | 15 | 1.73 | 1.07 | 8.0 |
| Madison WI | 14 | 1.79 | 0.36 | 7.5 |
| Topeka KS | 15 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 8.0 |
| Jackson MS | 15 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 8.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 15 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 8.0 |
| Salem OR | 14 | 1.86 | 0.71 | 7.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 15 | 1.87 | 1.47 | 8.0 |
| Helena MT | 15 | 1.87 | 0.67 | 8.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 14 | 1.93 | -1.36 | 7.5 |
| Sacramento CA | 15 | 2.07 | -2.07 | 8.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 15 | 2.07 | 1.27 | 8.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 14 | 2.14 | 1.29 | 7.5 |
| Lansing MI | 15 | 2.33 | 1.93 | 8.0 |
| Providence RI | 14 | 2.36 | 2.07 | 7.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 15 | 2.47 | 1.27 | 8.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 15 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 8.0 |
| Dover DE | 15 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 8.0 |
| Hartford CT | 15 | 2.93 | 1.73 | 8.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 15 | 3.00 | -2.47 | 8.0 |
| Boston MA | 15 | 3.00 | 2.73 | 8.0 |
| Austin TX | 14 | 3.07 | 3.07 | 7.5 |
| Santa Fe NM | 15 | 3.33 | -1.60 | 8.0 |
| Carson City NV | 15 | 4.00 | 3.07 | 8.0 |
| Denver CO | 15 | 4.73 | 4.73 | 8.0 |
| Boise ID | 15 | 4.93 | 3.20 | 8.0 |
| Olympia WA | 14 | 5.07 | 1.50 | 7.5 |
| Augusta ME | 15 | 5.13 | 5.00 | 8.0 |
| Concord NH | 15 | 5.40 | 3.40 | 8.0 |
| Albany NY | 15 | 5.67 | 4.47 | 8.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 14 | 6.64 | 5.93 | 7.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 15 | 8.00 | 8.00 | 8.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 73.0°F | +10.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 106.0°F | 101.0°F | +5.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 95.0°F | 92.0°F | +3.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 96.0°F | 90.0°F | +6.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 91.0°F | 90.0°F | +1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 76.0°F | +7.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 88.0°F | 82.0°F | +6.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 93.0°F | 89.0°F | +4.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 90.0°F | 87.0°F | +3.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 93.0°F | 80.0°F | +13.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 96.0°F | 90.0°F | +6.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 100.0°F | 95.0°F | +5.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 96.0°F | 93.0°F | +3.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 90.0°F | 88.0°F | +2.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 88.0°F | +4.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 97.0°F | 87.0°F | +10.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 95.0°F | 90.0°F | +5.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 67.0°F | +12.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 99.0°F | 94.0°F | +5.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 97.0°F | +1.0° | 15.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 87.0°F | 83.0°F | +4.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 95.0°F | 91.0°F | +4.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 93.0°F | 87.0°F | +6.0° | 14.0 |
| 2026-07-14 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 14.0 |