Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 1.76 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.76 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.79 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 1.79 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 1.96 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.99 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.02 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.15 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.18 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.19 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.28 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.28 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.28 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.36 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.37 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.38 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.41 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.44 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.46 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.46 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.54 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.55 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.55 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.55 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.56 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.58 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.61 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.64 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.66 | 0.79 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.72 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.76 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.78 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.78 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.78 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.80 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.81 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 2.89 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.92 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.97 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.05 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.07 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 3.14 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.15 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.19 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.24 | -2.81 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.51 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.62 | 3.32 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.67 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.95 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 4.01 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 73.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 69.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 70.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |