Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.31 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.80 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.83 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.86 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 1.90 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.18 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.36 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.38 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.40 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 2.45 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.47 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.47 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.51 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.54 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.57 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.60 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.60 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.63 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.63 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.64 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.67 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.70 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.72 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.74 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.79 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.85 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.99 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.01 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 3.04 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.11 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 3.17 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.17 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 3.19 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.21 | -2.46 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 3.24 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.31 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.32 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.33 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.58 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.63 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.68 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.72 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 3.82 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.83 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.87 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 4.02 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 4.05 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 4.08 | 3.26 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 4.58 | 3.90 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 5.92 | 2.67 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 68.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 53.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 27.0°F | 32.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 50.0°F | 56.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |