Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.33 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.84 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.93 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 1.94 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.95 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.17 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.23 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.35 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.36 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.45 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.47 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.48 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.49 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.52 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.53 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 2.56 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.62 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.63 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.63 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.68 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.80 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 2.83 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.84 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.89 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.91 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.94 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.96 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 3.04 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.09 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 3.10 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.12 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 3.22 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 3.22 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 3.24 | -2.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 3.29 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 3.34 | 2.68 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.38 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.44 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 3.68 | 3.36 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 3.72 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.73 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.83 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 3.84 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 4.14 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 4.17 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 4.36 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 4.39 | 3.97 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.95 | 4.37 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 6.26 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 73.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 66.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 52.0°F | 59.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 52.0°F | 46.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 56.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 73.0°F | 68.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |