Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.05 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.44 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.52 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.62 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 1.76 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.79 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.93 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.93 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.12 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.12 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.13 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.15 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.16 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.17 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.18 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.18 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.20 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.21 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.25 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.29 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.31 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.38 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.39 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.40 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.41 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.42 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.56 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.57 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.58 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.61 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.74 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.84 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.87 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.93 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.96 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.00 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 3.01 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.02 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.06 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 3.08 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 3.16 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 3.19 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.23 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.25 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 3.31 | -3.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.45 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 3.46 | -2.72 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.70 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 3.92 | -1.88 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.93 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 97.0°F | 98.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 94.0°F | 96.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 86.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 74.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |