Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 174 | 1.37 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 174 | 1.68 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 174 | 1.80 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 174 | 1.99 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 174 | 2.02 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 174 | 2.18 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 174 | 2.19 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 174 | 2.28 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 174 | 2.29 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 174 | 2.31 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 174 | 2.39 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 174 | 2.41 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 174 | 2.41 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 174 | 2.43 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 174 | 2.48 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 174 | 2.57 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 174 | 2.59 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 174 | 2.64 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 174 | 2.67 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 174 | 2.67 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 174 | 2.70 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 174 | 2.71 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 174 | 2.72 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 174 | 2.74 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 174 | 2.76 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 174 | 2.86 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 174 | 2.87 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 174 | 2.97 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 174 | 2.99 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 174 | 2.99 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 174 | 3.02 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 174 | 3.02 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 174 | 3.07 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 174 | 3.07 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 174 | 3.10 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 174 | 3.14 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 174 | 3.20 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 174 | 3.22 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 174 | 3.37 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 174 | 3.41 | -2.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 174 | 3.41 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 174 | 3.47 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 174 | 3.47 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 174 | 3.49 | 3.05 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 174 | 3.63 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 174 | 3.94 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 174 | 4.04 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 174 | 4.05 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 174 | 4.21 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 174 | 4.26 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 44.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 31.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 55.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 58.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |