Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.18 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.75 | -1.10 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 1.91 | 0.74 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 1.93 | -0.66 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.99 | 0.46 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.07 | -0.36 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.10 | -0.26 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.11 | 0.11 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.22 | -0.10 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 2.32 | -0.62 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.34 | 1.32 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.35 | 0.62 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.43 | -0.02 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.44 | 0.47 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.49 | -0.55 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.54 | -1.30 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.54 | -1.08 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.55 | 0.42 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.57 | -1.26 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 2.60 | 0.59 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.61 | 1.03 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.63 | 0.74 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.63 | -0.34 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.68 | -2.54 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.68 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.69 | -0.13 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 2.72 | -0.64 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.74 | 1.24 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.75 | -0.66 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.84 | -2.12 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 2.93 | 2.11 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.94 | -0.66 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.97 | -0.32 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.99 | -0.98 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 3.02 | -2.17 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.05 | 2.11 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 3.07 | -2.23 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.07 | 1.37 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 3.07 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 3.08 | -1.52 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.15 | 1.39 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 3.19 | 0.27 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 3.34 | -0.84 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.38 | 1.70 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 3.39 | -2.28 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.45 | 0.92 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.57 | -0.58 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.57 | 0.37 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.74 | 2.62 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 09:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 MST | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Hartford CT | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 80.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 MST | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 58.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 MST | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 54.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 PST | Carson City NV | 54.0°F | 50.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 11:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 12:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 10:00 PST | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 13:00 EST | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |