Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.33 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 1.85 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 190 | 1.85 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 190 | 1.88 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 1.90 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 190 | 2.15 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 190 | 2.34 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 190 | 2.34 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.43 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 190 | 2.43 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.45 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 190 | 2.47 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.51 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 190 | 2.55 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.60 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.61 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 190 | 2.64 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.65 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 190 | 2.66 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 190 | 2.68 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.69 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 190 | 2.69 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.74 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 190 | 2.74 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 190 | 2.78 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 190 | 2.86 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 2.95 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 190 | 2.96 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.99 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 190 | 3.06 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 190 | 3.17 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 3.22 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 3.23 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.23 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 190 | 3.25 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 3.26 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 190 | 3.27 | -2.55 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 190 | 3.28 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 190 | 3.57 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 190 | 3.57 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 190 | 3.61 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 190 | 3.64 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.81 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 190 | 3.88 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.96 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 190 | 4.08 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 4.13 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 190 | 4.27 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 190 | 4.68 | 4.03 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 190 | 5.91 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 89.0°F | 90.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 92.0°F | 86.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 76.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 70.0°F | 64.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 86.0°F | 74.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 92.0°F | 91.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 55.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 94.0°F | 95.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 60.0°F | 56.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 81.0°F | 74.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |