Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.16 | -0.40 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 1.73 | -1.18 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 1.81 | 0.09 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 1.91 | 0.80 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 1.93 | -0.66 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.99 | 0.53 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.06 | -0.42 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.10 | -0.33 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.12 | 0.16 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 2.19 | -0.21 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.37 | 0.63 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.37 | -0.62 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.39 | 1.38 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.42 | 0.04 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.44 | 0.51 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.46 | -0.46 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.53 | 0.34 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.56 | -1.29 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.58 | -0.30 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.60 | -1.10 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.60 | -1.30 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.61 | 0.67 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.64 | 1.04 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.64 | 0.82 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.66 | -0.36 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.66 | -0.18 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.67 | -0.84 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.67 | -2.52 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.70 | -0.57 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.76 | 1.22 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.87 | -2.13 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 2.94 | 2.13 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.96 | -0.71 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.98 | -1.11 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 3.02 | -0.33 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.04 | 0.77 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.06 | 1.32 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.06 | 2.09 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 3.06 | -2.18 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 3.08 | -1.56 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 3.12 | -2.26 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.12 | 1.31 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 3.21 | 0.26 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 3.39 | -0.88 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.39 | 1.76 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.44 | 1.01 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 3.48 | -2.33 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 3.54 | -0.47 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.63 | 0.34 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.72 | 2.56 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 MST | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Dover DE | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 MST | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Springfield IL | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Topeka KS | 48.0°F | 39.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 41.0°F | 45.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 39.0°F | 35.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Jackson MS | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 47.0°F | 38.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 47.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 PST | Carson City NV | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Concord NH | 39.0°F | 47.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 34.0°F | 27.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Columbus OH | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 07:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 PST | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 08:00 EST | Columbia SC | 50.0°F | 46.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |