Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 181 | 1.38 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 1.51 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 1.58 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.65 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 1.91 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.92 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 1.92 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.98 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.08 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.12 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.13 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.16 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 2.17 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.18 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 2.18 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.19 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 2.21 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.29 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.45 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.48 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 2.48 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.53 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 2.54 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 2.59 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.59 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 2.65 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.65 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 2.67 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.69 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.70 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 2.73 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.76 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.78 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.79 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.83 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 2.88 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.88 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 2.90 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.91 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 2.97 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 2.99 | -2.05 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 3.08 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.12 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 3.18 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 3.18 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 3.23 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 3.55 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 3.72 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 4.02 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 4.04 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 50.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 60.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 61.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 45.0°F | 50.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 48.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |