Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

Locations
50
US state capitals
Hourly obs
983
47232 forecast rows
Temp MAE (7d)
2.61°
934 matched hours
Last good run
2026-07-15 01:02 UTC
ok

Accuracy by capital

Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.

Capital Samples MAE °F Bias °F Avg lead (h)
Raleigh NC 19 0.79 -0.47 10.0
Columbus OH 18 0.83 0.28 9.5
Richmond VA 18 0.83 0.39 9.5
Annapolis MD 19 0.84 -0.21 10.0
Baton Rouge LA 19 1.05 0.84 10.0
Honolulu HI 19 1.11 0.68 10.0
Juneau AK 19 1.16 0.42 10.0
Cheyenne WY 18 1.22 0.33 9.5
Nashville TN 18 1.44 -0.67 9.5
Tallahassee FL 19 1.47 0.21 10.0
Jefferson City MO 19 1.47 1.16 10.0
Pierre SD 18 1.50 1.39 9.5
Charleston WV 18 1.50 1.50 9.5
Frankfort KY 19 1.53 1.11 10.0
Oklahoma City OK 18 1.72 -1.28 9.5
Madison WI 18 1.72 0.61 9.5
Indianapolis IN 19 1.74 0.79 10.0
Bismarck ND 19 1.74 1.74 10.0
Jackson MS 19 1.79 0.74 10.0
Little Rock AR 19 1.84 -0.58 10.0
Springfield IL 19 1.95 1.42 10.0
Salt Lake City UT 18 2.00 1.33 9.5
Des Moines IA 19 2.11 1.79 10.0
Trenton NJ 19 2.11 1.47 10.0
Harrisburg PA 18 2.17 1.50 9.5
Topeka KS 19 2.21 2.11 10.0
Salem OR 18 2.22 1.33 9.5
Sacramento CA 19 2.26 -2.26 10.0
Saint Paul MN 19 2.26 2.16 10.0
Columbia SC 18 2.28 -2.28 9.5
Dover DE 19 2.58 1.00 10.0
Lansing MI 19 2.58 2.26 10.0
Atlanta GA 19 2.63 -1.79 10.0
Montgomery AL 19 2.95 1.05 10.0
Hartford CT 19 3.00 2.05 10.0
Helena MT 19 3.11 2.16 10.0
Lincoln NE 19 3.11 3.11 10.0
Santa Fe NM 19 3.16 -1.26 10.0
Providence RI 18 3.17 2.94 9.5
Boston MA 19 3.37 3.16 10.0
Denver CO 19 3.95 3.95 10.0
Carson City NV 19 3.95 2.89 10.0
Austin TX 18 4.17 4.17 9.5
Boise ID 19 4.58 3.21 10.0
Olympia WA 18 4.83 0.28 9.5
Albany NY 19 5.32 4.37 10.0
Augusta ME 19 6.05 5.95 10.0
Concord NH 19 6.05 4.47 10.0
Montpelier VT 18 6.33 5.78 9.5
Phoenix AZ 19 6.79 6.79 10.0

Recent hour matches

Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.

When (local) City Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Montgomery AL 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 17:00 AKDT Juneau AK 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 18:00 MST Phoenix AZ 106.0°F 106.0°F +0.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Little Rock AR 81.0°F 74.0°F +7.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 18:00 PDT Sacramento CA 100.0°F 103.0°F -3.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT Denver CO 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Hartford CT 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Dover DE 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Tallahassee FL 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Atlanta GA 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 15:00 HST Honolulu HI 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT Boise ID 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Springfield IL 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Indianapolis IN 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Des Moines IA 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Topeka KS 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Frankfort KY 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Baton Rouge LA 79.0°F 78.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Augusta ME 83.0°F 78.0°F +5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Annapolis MD 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Boston MA 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Lansing MI 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Saint Paul MN 93.0°F 88.0°F +5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Jackson MS 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Jefferson City MO 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT Helena MT 88.0°F 79.0°F +9.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Lincoln NE 89.0°F 84.0°F +5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 18:00 PDT Carson City NV 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Concord NH 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Trenton NJ 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT Santa Fe NM 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Albany NY 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Raleigh NC 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Bismarck ND 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Columbus OH 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT Oklahoma City OK 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 18:00 PDT Salem OR 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Harrisburg PA 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Providence RI 86.0°F 80.0°F +6.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT Columbia SC 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 18.0