Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 170 | 1.72 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 1.79 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.96 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.01 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.05 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 2.09 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.09 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.12 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.17 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.19 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.21 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 2.23 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.23 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.24 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 2.32 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.34 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.36 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 2.41 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.44 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.44 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.44 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.50 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.52 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.56 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.61 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.67 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.68 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.69 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 2.82 | 0.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.82 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 2.84 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 2.85 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 2.88 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.96 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.99 | 2.61 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.99 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 3.04 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 3.10 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.14 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 3.14 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.14 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.26 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.32 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 3.38 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.61 | -1.29 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.65 | 3.34 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.93 | 2.95 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 4.01 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 4.38 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 96.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 70.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 65.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-26 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |