Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 184 | 1.22 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 1.45 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 1.67 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 1.79 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 1.83 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 1.84 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.88 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.89 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.91 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.06 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.11 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.11 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.20 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.22 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.23 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.24 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.24 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.31 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.34 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.36 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.37 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.38 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.41 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.42 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.45 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.45 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.46 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.48 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.50 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.53 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.54 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 2.59 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.59 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.64 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.64 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.70 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.71 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.78 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.78 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.86 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 3.13 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.36 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.40 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 3.53 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 3.63 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.68 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 3.75 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.76 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.97 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.97 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 77.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 48.0°F | 44.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 66.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |