Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 182 | 1.31 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 182 | 1.80 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 182 | 1.84 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 182 | 1.85 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 182 | 1.92 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 182 | 2.18 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 182 | 2.38 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 182 | 2.39 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 182 | 2.42 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 182 | 2.45 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 182 | 2.47 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 182 | 2.49 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 182 | 2.52 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 182 | 2.54 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 182 | 2.58 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 182 | 2.59 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 182 | 2.60 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 182 | 2.62 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 182 | 2.65 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 182 | 2.65 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 182 | 2.66 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 182 | 2.69 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 182 | 2.75 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 182 | 2.77 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 182 | 2.81 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 182 | 2.85 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 182 | 2.93 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 182 | 2.99 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 182 | 3.01 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 182 | 3.09 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 182 | 3.16 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 182 | 3.18 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 182 | 3.20 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 182 | 3.20 | -1.37 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 182 | 3.27 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 182 | 3.31 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 182 | 3.32 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 182 | 3.34 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 182 | 3.56 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 182 | 3.59 | 1.60 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 182 | 3.71 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 182 | 3.74 | 3.43 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 182 | 3.79 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 182 | 3.82 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 182 | 3.87 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 182 | 3.97 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 182 | 4.01 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 182 | 4.08 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 182 | 4.54 | 3.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 182 | 5.89 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 05:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Dover DE | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 MDT | Boise ID | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 51.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 59.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 47.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 67.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 50.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 MDT | Helena MT | 25.0°F | 26.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 58.0°F | 46.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 33.0°F | 28.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 49.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 46.0°F | 53.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 36.0°F | 38.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 08:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 67.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 06:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |