Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.38 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 1.50 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 1.61 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 1.74 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.97 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.02 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.05 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.06 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.08 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 2.11 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.12 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 2.17 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 2.21 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.22 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.23 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 2.28 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.30 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 2.31 | -0.68 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.32 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.33 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 2.34 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.43 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.43 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.46 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 2.48 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.54 | -2.34 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.64 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.68 | -1.47 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.71 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 2.73 | -1.97 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 2.79 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.85 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 2.87 | -1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 2.92 | -2.83 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 183 | 2.93 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.95 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 3.07 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 3.12 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 3.17 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.23 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.24 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 3.33 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.38 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 3.40 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 3.64 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 3.67 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 3.75 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 3.83 | -3.09 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 4.44 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 41.0°F | 34.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 60.0°F | 54.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 66.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 56.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 63.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 44.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |