Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 192 | 1.02 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 192 | 1.53 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 192 | 1.58 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 192 | 1.61 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 192 | 1.83 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 192 | 1.85 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 192 | 1.86 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 192 | 1.90 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 192 | 2.01 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 192 | 2.01 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 192 | 2.17 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 192 | 2.18 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 192 | 2.24 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 192 | 2.24 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 192 | 2.25 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 192 | 2.26 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 192 | 2.26 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 192 | 2.28 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 192 | 2.34 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 192 | 2.38 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 192 | 2.39 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 192 | 2.40 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 192 | 2.42 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 192 | 2.43 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 192 | 2.47 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 192 | 2.53 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 192 | 2.66 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 192 | 2.69 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 192 | 2.73 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 192 | 2.77 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 192 | 2.82 | -1.98 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 192 | 2.83 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 192 | 2.84 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 192 | 2.85 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 192 | 2.94 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 192 | 2.94 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 192 | 2.95 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 192 | 2.95 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 192 | 3.10 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 192 | 3.14 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 192 | 3.14 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 192 | 3.15 | -2.48 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 192 | 3.21 | -3.14 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 192 | 3.22 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 192 | 3.38 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 192 | 3.40 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 192 | 3.49 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 192 | 3.63 | -1.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 192 | 3.71 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 192 | 4.06 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 85.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 15:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 101.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 78.0°F | 85.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 98.0°F | 99.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 81.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 13:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 72.0°F | 77.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 79.0°F | 85.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 87.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 63.0°F | 68.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 17:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 71.0°F | 77.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 70.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 18:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 16:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Providence RI | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 19:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |