Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 179 | 1.40 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 1.50 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 1.59 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 1.62 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 1.88 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.91 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 1.93 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.99 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.07 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 2.13 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.14 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 2.15 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 2.16 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 2.18 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 2.18 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 2.19 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.21 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.30 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 2.42 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.47 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 2.49 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 2.55 | -0.72 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.55 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 2.56 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 2.61 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 2.63 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.68 | -1.08 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 2.68 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.68 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.69 | -1.75 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 2.74 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 2.75 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.78 | -1.69 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.79 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 2.85 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 2.86 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.89 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.91 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.93 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 2.96 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 2.98 | 2.21 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.05 | -0.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.10 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 3.18 | 3.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 3.20 | -1.54 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 3.21 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 3.57 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 3.73 | 2.72 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 4.00 | 2.69 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 4.01 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 87.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 48.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 74.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 56.0°F | 61.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 52.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 43.0°F | 40.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 61.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 49.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |