Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 47 | 0.89 | 0.51 | 24.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 47 | 1.15 | -0.34 | 24.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 47 | 1.21 | -0.36 | 24.0 |
| Columbus OH | 46 | 1.22 | 0.65 | 23.5 |
| Jefferson City MO | 47 | 1.28 | 0.43 | 24.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 47 | 1.32 | -0.34 | 24.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 46 | 1.48 | 0.35 | 23.5 |
| Jackson MS | 47 | 1.49 | -0.13 | 24.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 47 | 1.57 | 0.64 | 24.0 |
| Juneau AK | 47 | 1.70 | 1.32 | 24.0 |
| Nashville TN | 46 | 1.74 | 0.09 | 23.5 |
| Richmond VA | 46 | 1.76 | 1.28 | 23.5 |
| Harrisburg PA | 46 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 23.5 |
| Frankfort KY | 47 | 1.91 | 0.64 | 24.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 46 | 1.93 | 0.46 | 23.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 47 | 1.96 | 0.21 | 24.0 |
| Madison WI | 46 | 1.96 | 1.30 | 23.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 47 | 1.98 | 1.00 | 24.0 |
| Lansing MI | 47 | 1.98 | 1.47 | 24.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 47 | 2.02 | 0.83 | 24.0 |
| Salem OR | 46 | 2.04 | 1.43 | 23.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 47 | 2.11 | 0.66 | 24.0 |
| Topeka KS | 47 | 2.21 | 2.17 | 24.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 47 | 2.26 | -1.23 | 24.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 47 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 24.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 46 | 2.39 | 0.26 | 23.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 47 | 2.45 | -2.11 | 24.0 |
| Springfield IL | 47 | 2.45 | 2.02 | 24.0 |
| Dover DE | 47 | 2.51 | 0.17 | 24.0 |
| Pierre SD | 46 | 2.54 | 2.50 | 23.5 |
| Trenton NJ | 47 | 2.57 | 2.06 | 24.0 |
| Boise ID | 47 | 2.98 | 2.30 | 24.0 |
| Helena MT | 47 | 3.09 | 1.77 | 24.0 |
| Charleston WV | 46 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 23.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 47 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 24.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 47 | 3.19 | 2.98 | 24.0 |
| Denver CO | 47 | 3.28 | 2.77 | 24.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 47 | 3.28 | -1.49 | 24.0 |
| Olympia WA | 46 | 3.35 | -0.87 | 23.5 |
| Columbia SC | 46 | 3.57 | -3.57 | 23.5 |
| Hartford CT | 47 | 3.66 | 2.43 | 24.0 |
| Augusta ME | 47 | 3.74 | 2.04 | 24.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 47 | 4.00 | 2.55 | 24.0 |
| Austin TX | 46 | 4.11 | 4.07 | 23.5 |
| Carson City NV | 47 | 4.28 | 3.72 | 24.0 |
| Providence RI | 46 | 4.61 | 4.52 | 23.5 |
| Boston MA | 47 | 4.72 | 4.51 | 24.0 |
| Concord NH | 47 | 5.06 | 4.17 | 24.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 46 | 5.11 | 3.28 | 23.5 |
| Albany NY | 47 | 6.04 | 4.43 | 24.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 21:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 92.0°F | +4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 MDT | Denver CO | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 82.0°F | -2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 76.0°F | 73.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 78.0°F | 79.0°F | -1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Boston MA | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 78.0°F | -2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 MDT | Helena MT | 75.0°F | 79.0°F | -4.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Concord NH | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-15 23:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 67.0°F | 64.0°F | +3.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Albany NY | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 80.0°F | -5.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 47.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 79.0°F | 81.0°F | -2.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 00:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-15 22:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Providence RI | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 46.0 |
| 2026-07-16 01:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 76.0°F | 81.0°F | -5.0° | 46.0 |