Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 1.67 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 1.77 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 1.95 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 1.96 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 2.04 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 2.14 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 2.19 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.20 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.20 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 2.22 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.23 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 2.26 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.27 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.28 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.40 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.43 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.44 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.45 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.51 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.52 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 2.54 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 2.55 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.59 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 2.62 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 2.66 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 2.67 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.68 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.69 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.70 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 2.72 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 2.73 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.74 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 2.77 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 2.79 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 2.79 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 2.88 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 2.90 | 1.44 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.91 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 2.94 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 3.04 | -2.53 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.04 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.07 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.17 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.18 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 3.31 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 3.41 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.47 | -2.09 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 3.48 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 4.09 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 4.39 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 85.0°F | 91.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 80.0°F | 84.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 88.0°F | 91.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 72.0°F | 75.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 82.0°F | 85.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 59.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 89.0°F | 86.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |