Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 181 | 1.37 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 181 | 1.45 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 181 | 1.62 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 181 | 1.76 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 181 | 1.96 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 181 | 1.98 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 181 | 2.02 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 181 | 2.05 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 181 | 2.07 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 181 | 2.07 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 181 | 2.12 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 181 | 2.13 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 181 | 2.19 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 181 | 2.20 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 181 | 2.22 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 181 | 2.23 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 181 | 2.29 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 181 | 2.30 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 181 | 2.31 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 181 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 181 | 2.34 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 181 | 2.35 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 181 | 2.40 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 181 | 2.41 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 181 | 2.45 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 181 | 2.48 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 181 | 2.52 | -2.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 181 | 2.62 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 181 | 2.70 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 181 | 2.71 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 181 | 2.76 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 181 | 2.78 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 181 | 2.85 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 181 | 2.89 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 181 | 2.93 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 181 | 2.94 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 181 | 2.96 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 181 | 3.04 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 181 | 3.06 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 181 | 3.08 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 181 | 3.23 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 181 | 3.27 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 181 | 3.30 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 181 | 3.35 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 181 | 3.36 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 181 | 3.65 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 181 | 3.71 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 181 | 3.72 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 181 | 3.83 | -3.08 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 181 | 4.45 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 04:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 34.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 81.0°F | 83.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 MDT | Denver CO | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Dover DE | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 55.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 54.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 51.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Boston MA | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 MDT | Helena MT | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Concord NH | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 06:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Albany NY | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 07:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 05:00 PDT | Salem OR | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 08:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |