Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 172 | 0.95 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 1.49 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 1.56 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.61 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.80 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.81 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 1.84 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 1.89 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 1.99 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.05 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.12 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.13 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.14 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.20 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.24 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.25 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.30 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 2.33 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.34 | -1.19 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.37 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.40 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.41 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 2.42 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.49 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.50 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.55 | 1.95 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 2.62 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.67 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.71 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 2.76 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.81 | -2.23 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.81 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.83 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.83 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.85 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 2.91 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.94 | -0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.94 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.07 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 3.19 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 3.22 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.24 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.34 | -3.26 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.37 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.44 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.51 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 3.55 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.62 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.66 | -1.92 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.09 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 90.0°F | 93.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 82.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 75.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 49.0°F | 43.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 69.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 53.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 58.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 73.0°F | 77.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 62.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 50.0°F | 55.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |