Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.35 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.86 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 1.86 | -1.21 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.92 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 1.92 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.19 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.22 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 2.34 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.39 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.42 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.45 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 2.46 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 2.47 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.51 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.53 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 2.57 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.61 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.63 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.66 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.71 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.79 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 170 | 2.83 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 2.85 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.85 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.94 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.96 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.98 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 3.07 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 3.10 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.12 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 3.17 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.25 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 3.26 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.29 | -2.71 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.32 | 2.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 3.32 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 3.41 | -2.52 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 3.51 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 3.68 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 3.75 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.76 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 3.76 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.78 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 3.91 | 3.08 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 4.14 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 4.22 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 4.35 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 4.38 | 3.95 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 4.97 | 4.38 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 6.29 | 3.45 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 75.0°F | 76.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 75.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 79.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 79.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 74.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 56.0°F | 49.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 79.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 73.0°F | 69.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 71.0°F | 65.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 71.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |