Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 176 | 0.95 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.66 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.68 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.70 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.70 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.77 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.84 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.91 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 1.94 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.02 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.02 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.08 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.11 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.19 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.23 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.25 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.27 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.30 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.33 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.35 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.44 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.45 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.48 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.51 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.52 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.52 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.53 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.57 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.60 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.60 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.69 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.77 | -0.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.78 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.80 | -0.54 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.81 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.84 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.85 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 2.90 | 0.42 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.93 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.07 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.31 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.33 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.34 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.44 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.54 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.65 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.70 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.73 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.94 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 4.19 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-05 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 48.0°F | 54.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 54.0°F | 52.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 52.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 40.0°F | 46.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 53.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 58.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 54.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |