Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 179 | 1.35 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 179 | 1.72 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 179 | 1.85 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 179 | 1.94 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 179 | 1.99 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 179 | 2.15 | -0.09 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 179 | 2.18 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 179 | 2.35 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 179 | 2.37 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 179 | 2.40 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 179 | 2.42 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 179 | 2.44 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 179 | 2.44 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 179 | 2.46 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 179 | 2.54 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 179 | 2.55 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 179 | 2.55 | -1.14 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 179 | 2.68 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 179 | 2.69 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 179 | 2.69 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 179 | 2.71 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 179 | 2.73 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 179 | 2.75 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 179 | 2.78 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 179 | 2.82 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 179 | 2.89 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 179 | 2.93 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 179 | 2.97 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 179 | 2.99 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 179 | 2.99 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 179 | 3.03 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 179 | 3.04 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 179 | 3.04 | -1.81 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 179 | 3.04 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 179 | 3.06 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 179 | 3.08 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 179 | 3.14 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 179 | 3.19 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 179 | 3.36 | -2.93 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 179 | 3.40 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 179 | 3.42 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 179 | 3.45 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 179 | 3.46 | 3.03 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 179 | 3.61 | 2.37 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 179 | 3.64 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 179 | 3.88 | 1.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 179 | 3.94 | -0.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 179 | 3.97 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 179 | 4.12 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 179 | 4.21 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 02:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 04:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 65.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 00:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 04:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 04:00 MDT | Helena MT | 32.0°F | 31.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Concord NH | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 04:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 05:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 03:00 PDT | Salem OR | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 53.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 06:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |