Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock AR | 171 | 1.49 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 1.55 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 171 | 1.82 | -1.77 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 171 | 1.85 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 171 | 1.94 | -0.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 1.98 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 2.05 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 171 | 2.06 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.13 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.15 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 171 | 2.19 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.19 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 2.22 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 171 | 2.23 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.23 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 171 | 2.26 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 171 | 2.27 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.28 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 2.32 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.46 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 2.46 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 171 | 2.53 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 2.56 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 171 | 2.64 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 171 | 2.66 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.66 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 171 | 2.74 | 2.25 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.74 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 171 | 2.75 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.75 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 2.77 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 171 | 2.81 | -1.94 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 2.86 | -2.56 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.87 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 2.87 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 2.92 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 2.92 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 171 | 2.95 | 2.50 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 3.03 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 171 | 3.04 | -2.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 3.07 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 171 | 3.12 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 171 | 3.19 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 3.35 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 3.40 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 171 | 3.62 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.68 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 3.70 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 3.76 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 3.76 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 18:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 51.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 91.0°F | 94.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 MDT | Denver CO | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 16:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 MDT | Boise ID | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 69.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Concord NH | 47.0°F | 45.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 20:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Albany NY | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 21:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 19:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-23 22:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |