Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.21 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.38 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 1.53 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.68 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 1.88 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.95 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.98 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.02 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.06 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.07 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.08 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.12 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.14 | -0.14 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.17 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.20 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.21 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.22 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.25 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.28 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.30 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.32 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.34 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.35 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.37 | 0.31 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.40 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.46 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.49 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.54 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.64 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.71 | -1.42 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.73 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.81 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.82 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.86 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 2.87 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.90 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 2.96 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.96 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.02 | -2.91 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 3.05 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.11 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.13 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.21 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.33 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.45 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.65 | -2.85 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.73 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.74 | 1.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 3.79 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 4.56 | -1.72 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 101.0°F | 102.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 99.0°F | 99.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 80.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 70.0°F | 65.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 74.0°F | 79.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 82.0°F | 82.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 76.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 68.0°F | 74.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 77.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 63.0°F | 59.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |