Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.34 | -0.11 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.73 | -0.32 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.91 | -1.00 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.97 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.01 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.24 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.34 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.35 | 1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.43 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.45 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.46 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.48 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.52 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.53 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.61 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.65 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.65 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.66 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.68 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.69 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.73 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.73 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.81 | -1.67 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.81 | 2.32 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.85 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.87 | 1.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.90 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.95 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.97 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.05 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.10 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.12 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.20 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.22 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.24 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.25 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.31 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.36 | -1.78 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.39 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.41 | -1.68 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.48 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.57 | 2.19 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.63 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 3.72 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.72 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.73 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.73 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.88 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 4.24 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.48 | 3.52 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 75.0°F | 70.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 71.0°F | 58.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 65.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 58.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 71.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 67.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 66.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 28.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 56.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 55.0°F | 60.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 43.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 58.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |