Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.22 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 1.61 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 1.98 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.02 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.11 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 2.30 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 2.33 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 2.46 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.47 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.49 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.52 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.52 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.54 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.57 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.65 | 0.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.66 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.69 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.70 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 2.73 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.74 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.79 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.79 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.89 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.90 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.91 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.94 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 2.95 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.97 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 3.00 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.01 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.02 | 0.23 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.06 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 3.06 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.08 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.09 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 3.12 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.14 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 3.14 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.22 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 3.47 | 2.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 3.52 | 2.92 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.68 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.89 | 2.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 4.01 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 4.02 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 4.04 | 2.56 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 4.60 | 2.42 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 4.69 | 4.48 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 4.86 | 3.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 5.82 | 4.47 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 50.0°F | 50.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 76.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 56.0°F | 56.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 44.0°F | 43.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 40.0°F | 37.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 54.0°F | 57.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 38.0°F | 36.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 38.0°F | 35.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 50.0°F | 45.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 35.0°F | 36.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 68.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 59.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 75.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |