Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 176 | 0.97 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 1.49 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.60 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.60 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 1.80 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 1.84 | 0.03 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 1.85 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 1.91 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.01 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.02 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.07 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.18 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.22 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.22 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.24 | -0.91 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.26 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.28 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.30 | -1.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.31 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.39 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.43 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.44 | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.46 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.47 | 1.73 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.52 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.55 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.68 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.68 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 2.74 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.78 | -2.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.78 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.82 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.83 | 1.06 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.84 | -1.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 2.84 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.94 | -2.42 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.95 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.96 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.09 | 0.32 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.20 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.21 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.23 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 3.32 | -3.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.33 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.44 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.46 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.51 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.61 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.62 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 4.16 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 58.0°F | 63.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 75.0°F | 72.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-06 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 60.0°F | 59.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 53.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 38.0°F | 43.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 63.0°F | 55.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 34.0°F | 32.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 44.0°F | 42.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 37.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 42.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 43.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-07 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |