Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.16 | -0.39 | 47.9 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.72 | -1.19 | 47.9 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 1.78 | 0.14 | 47.9 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 1.89 | 0.76 | 47.9 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.93 | -0.69 | 47.9 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 1.97 | 0.57 | 47.9 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 2.07 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.10 | -0.30 | 47.9 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.13 | 0.15 | 47.9 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.19 | -0.22 | 47.9 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.38 | 0.64 | 47.9 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.39 | -0.64 | 47.9 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.40 | 1.40 | 47.9 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.40 | 0.00 | 47.9 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.42 | -0.40 | 47.9 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.44 | 0.49 | 47.9 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.53 | 0.31 | 47.9 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.56 | -1.28 | 47.9 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.57 | -0.34 | 47.9 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.58 | -1.06 | 47.9 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.59 | 0.98 | 47.9 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.61 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.62 | -1.32 | 47.9 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.64 | -0.24 | 47.9 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.65 | 0.83 | 47.9 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.66 | -0.50 | 47.9 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.67 | -2.52 | 47.9 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.67 | -0.39 | 47.9 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.68 | -0.84 | 47.9 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.73 | 1.18 | 47.9 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 2.88 | -2.13 | 47.9 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.91 | 2.10 | 47.9 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.96 | -1.18 | 47.9 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.97 | -0.72 | 47.9 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.99 | -0.27 | 47.9 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.99 | 0.70 | 47.9 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.02 | 1.26 | 47.9 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.02 | -1.48 | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.06 | 2.08 | 47.9 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 3.07 | -2.22 | 47.9 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 3.09 | 1.26 | 47.9 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.11 | -2.24 | 47.9 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 3.19 | 0.20 | 47.9 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.38 | 1.73 | 47.9 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 3.40 | -0.85 | 47.9 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 3.44 | 0.97 | 47.9 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 3.48 | -2.32 | 47.9 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.55 | -0.44 | 47.9 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.66 | 0.34 | 47.9 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.74 | 2.57 | 47.9 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 02:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 46.0°F | 45.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 03:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 50.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 MST | Denver CO | 40.0°F | 44.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Hartford CT | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Dover DE | 39.0°F | 43.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 52.0°F | 45.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 45.0°F | 42.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 MST | Boise ID | 47.0°F | 42.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Springfield IL | 44.0°F | 48.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Topeka KS | 47.0°F | 40.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 36.0°F | 43.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Augusta ME | 35.0°F | 40.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Boston MA | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Lansing MI | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 39.0°F | 37.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Jackson MS | 46.0°F | 55.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 MST | Helena MT | 41.0°F | 40.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 03:00 PST | Carson City NV | 38.0°F | 34.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Concord NH | 36.0°F | 45.0°F | -9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 38.0°F | 44.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 04:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Albany NY | 41.0°F | 46.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 33.0°F | 25.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Columbus OH | 40.0°F | 40.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 05:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 03:00 PST | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 58.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Providence RI | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-10 06:00 EST | Columbia SC | 44.0°F | 44.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |