Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.37 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 1.52 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 1.81 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 1.86 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 1.87 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 1.89 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 1.90 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 1.91 | -0.99 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 2.05 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.08 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 2.17 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.18 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.19 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.19 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 2.20 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.22 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.28 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.30 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.33 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 2.36 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.40 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 2.43 | 0.99 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 2.48 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 2.55 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.55 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.57 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.58 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.63 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 2.65 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 2.67 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 2.70 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.71 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.72 | 2.14 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 2.97 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.97 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.97 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 2.98 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 3.05 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 3.10 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.12 | 1.33 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.15 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 3.15 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.20 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 3.23 | 0.30 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 3.24 | 2.60 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 3.66 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.77 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 3.86 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 4.03 | 3.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 4.25 | 3.07 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 95.0°F | 96.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 64.0°F | 72.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 82.0°F | 80.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 70.0°F | 74.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 59.0°F | 67.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 60.0°F | 67.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 71.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 65.0°F | 66.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 81.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 65.0°F | 71.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-29 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |