Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 175 | 1.29 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 175 | 1.39 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 175 | 1.63 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 175 | 1.73 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 175 | 1.96 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 175 | 1.97 | 0.93 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 175 | 1.97 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 175 | 1.98 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 175 | 2.04 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 175 | 2.09 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 175 | 2.10 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 175 | 2.17 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 175 | 2.20 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 175 | 2.21 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 175 | 2.22 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 175 | 2.22 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 175 | 2.25 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 175 | 2.27 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 175 | 2.29 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 175 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 175 | 2.34 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 175 | 2.35 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 175 | 2.37 | 0.38 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 175 | 2.39 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 175 | 2.42 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 175 | 2.45 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 175 | 2.48 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 175 | 2.61 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 175 | 2.62 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 175 | 2.74 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 175 | 2.75 | -1.50 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 175 | 2.78 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 175 | 2.92 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 175 | 2.93 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 175 | 2.93 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 175 | 2.96 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 175 | 2.98 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 175 | 2.99 | -2.89 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 175 | 2.99 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 175 | 2.99 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 175 | 3.22 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 175 | 3.23 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 175 | 3.24 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 175 | 3.29 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 175 | 3.42 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 175 | 3.67 | 2.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 175 | 3.71 | 1.46 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 175 | 3.74 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 175 | 3.75 | -2.97 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 175 | 4.54 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 22:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 39.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 68.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 MDT | Denver CO | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 70.0°F | 75.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 20:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 MDT | Boise ID | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 56.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 56.0°F | 63.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 69.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 55.0°F | 48.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 47.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 60.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 55.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 MDT | Helena MT | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 66.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 65.0°F | 59.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Concord NH | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 54.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 00:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 59.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Albany NY | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 64.0°F | 69.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 48.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 01:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 64.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-08 23:00 PDT | Salem OR | 62.0°F | 58.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Providence RI | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 02:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |