Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 1.69 | -0.90 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 1.72 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 1.88 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 1.96 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 2.03 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 2.14 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.18 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.20 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.22 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.24 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 2.24 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.24 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 2.28 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.29 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.36 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.40 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.46 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.47 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.52 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.54 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 2.54 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 2.57 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.58 | 0.71 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.59 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 2.69 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 2.69 | 2.00 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 2.69 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.69 | -0.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 2.72 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 2.72 | 1.40 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 2.73 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 2.74 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.74 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.80 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 2.81 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 2.86 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 2.88 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.97 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 2.97 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.04 | 1.59 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.04 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.11 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.19 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.21 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.42 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.44 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 3.47 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 3.52 | 2.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 4.07 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 4.40 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 74.0°F | 71.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 63.0°F | 63.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 56.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 59.0°F | 64.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 57.0°F | 52.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 55.0°F | 46.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 72.0°F | 70.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 51.0°F | 55.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 60.0°F | 53.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 41.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 56.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 55.0°F | 51.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 53.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 62.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-29 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |