Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson MS | 169 | 1.38 | 0.20 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.46 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 1.57 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 1.60 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.88 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.89 | -1.82 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.92 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 1.98 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.01 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.07 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.08 | -0.80 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.14 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.14 | -1.38 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.15 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.21 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.21 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.22 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.38 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.43 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.50 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.56 | -1.62 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.57 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.57 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.57 | 1.56 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.60 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 2.64 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.67 | -0.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.70 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.71 | -1.74 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.73 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.74 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.78 | -2.47 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 2.80 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.83 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 2.85 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.86 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.87 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.88 | -1.83 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.89 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.90 | 1.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.92 | -1.91 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 3.01 | -2.01 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.06 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.13 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 3.21 | 3.13 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 3.28 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 3.65 | -1.93 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 3.82 | 2.86 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.94 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 4.01 | 2.66 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 97.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 84.0°F | 82.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 85.0°F | 81.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 79.0°F | 82.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 87.0°F | 89.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 83.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 67.0°F | 72.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 88.0°F | 83.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 56.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 80.0°F | 81.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 75.0°F | 69.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 71.0°F | 72.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 74.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |