Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 191 | 1.41 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 191 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 191 | 1.63 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 191 | 1.75 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 191 | 1.93 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 191 | 2.03 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 191 | 2.04 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 191 | 2.04 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 191 | 2.08 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 191 | 2.09 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 191 | 2.09 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 191 | 2.15 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 191 | 2.17 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 191 | 2.19 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 191 | 2.23 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 191 | 2.26 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 191 | 2.27 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 191 | 2.27 | -1.70 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 191 | 2.29 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 191 | 2.29 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 191 | 2.33 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 191 | 2.37 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 191 | 2.43 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 191 | 2.47 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 191 | 2.47 | 1.80 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 191 | 2.48 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 191 | 2.55 | -2.37 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 191 | 2.62 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 191 | 2.72 | -1.55 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 191 | 2.75 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 191 | 2.80 | -1.59 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 191 | 2.80 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 191 | 2.88 | -2.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 191 | 2.92 | -1.86 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 191 | 2.93 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 191 | 2.93 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 191 | 2.97 | -0.27 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 191 | 3.00 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 191 | 3.06 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 191 | 3.16 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 191 | 3.20 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 191 | 3.31 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 191 | 3.32 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 191 | 3.34 | 1.00 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 191 | 3.37 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 191 | 3.55 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 191 | 3.66 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 191 | 3.73 | 0.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 191 | 3.84 | -3.13 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 191 | 4.46 | -1.84 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 69.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 14:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 100.0°F | 103.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 90.0°F | 84.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 MDT | Denver CO | 84.0°F | 86.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 73.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 75.0°F | 71.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 12:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 84.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 79.0°F | 86.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 82.0°F | 78.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 82.0°F | 88.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Boston MA | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 65.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 86.0°F | 86.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 87.0°F | 90.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 MDT | Helena MT | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 84.0°F | 90.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Concord NH | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 16:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Albany NY | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 74.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 17:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 15:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 61.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-09 18:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |