Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 180 | 1.32 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 180 | 1.79 | -1.17 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 180 | 1.95 | -0.77 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 180 | 2.06 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 180 | 2.06 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 180 | 2.18 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 180 | 2.22 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 180 | 2.31 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 180 | 2.38 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 180 | 2.41 | 1.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 180 | 2.42 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 180 | 2.44 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 180 | 2.48 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 180 | 2.48 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 180 | 2.58 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 180 | 2.59 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 180 | 2.59 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 180 | 2.61 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 180 | 2.64 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 180 | 2.67 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 180 | 2.78 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 180 | 2.82 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 180 | 2.83 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 180 | 2.84 | 1.86 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 180 | 2.87 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 180 | 2.92 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 180 | 3.00 | -1.76 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 180 | 3.02 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 180 | 3.07 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 180 | 3.13 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 180 | 3.13 | 0.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 180 | 3.16 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 180 | 3.21 | -2.59 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 180 | 3.23 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 180 | 3.26 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 180 | 3.35 | 2.71 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 180 | 3.38 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 180 | 3.43 | -2.17 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 180 | 3.62 | 3.19 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 180 | 3.63 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 180 | 3.66 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 180 | 3.66 | 2.57 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 180 | 3.73 | 2.94 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 180 | 3.99 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 180 | 4.07 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 180 | 4.08 | 1.53 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 180 | 4.31 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 180 | 4.42 | 4.02 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 180 | 4.86 | 4.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 180 | 6.17 | 3.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 03:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 70.0°F | 72.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 53.0°F | 51.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 MDT | Denver CO | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 52.0°F | 53.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 61.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 MDT | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 57.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 70.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Boston MA | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 47.0°F | 51.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 MDT | Helena MT | 34.0°F | 41.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 56.0°F | 53.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Concord NH | 46.0°F | 51.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 57.0°F | 51.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 05:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 39.0°F | 42.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Albany NY | 50.0°F | 47.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 39.0°F | 44.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 60.0°F | 58.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 06:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 71.0°F | 66.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 04:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 51.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Providence RI | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-15 07:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |