Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.34 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 1.43 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 1.72 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.02 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 169 | 2.05 | 0.57 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.07 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 2.17 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.18 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.24 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.25 | -1.43 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.28 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.28 | 0.18 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 2.31 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 2.33 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 2.35 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.36 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.38 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.41 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 2.47 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.47 | -1.25 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.51 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 2.56 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 2.58 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.60 | -0.38 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.65 | -1.41 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.69 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.75 | -2.49 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.82 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.82 | 1.04 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 2.83 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.94 | -2.02 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.96 | -2.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 3.08 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 3.10 | -2.27 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.12 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.17 | 0.21 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.25 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 3.26 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.26 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 3.30 | -0.89 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 3.30 | 0.66 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 3.43 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 3.49 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 3.50 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 3.63 | -3.20 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 3.67 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 3.92 | 2.41 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.93 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 4.13 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 4.41 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 72.0°F | 68.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 49.0°F | 52.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 86.0°F | 79.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 69.0°F | 77.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 78.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 55.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 68.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 76.0°F | 79.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 58.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 45.0°F | 49.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 77.0°F | 77.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 36.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 81.0°F | 78.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 68.0°F | 72.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 59.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 85.0°F | 82.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |