Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baton Rouge LA | 42 | 0.93 | 0.55 | 21.5 |
| Raleigh NC | 42 | 0.95 | -0.05 | 21.5 |
| Tallahassee FL | 42 | 1.21 | -0.12 | 21.5 |
| Columbus OH | 41 | 1.24 | 0.76 | 21.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 42 | 1.31 | 0.60 | 21.5 |
| Annapolis MD | 42 | 1.33 | -0.43 | 21.5 |
| Juneau AK | 42 | 1.45 | 1.02 | 21.5 |
| Jackson MS | 42 | 1.48 | -0.05 | 21.5 |
| Richmond VA | 41 | 1.49 | 0.95 | 21.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 41 | 1.51 | 0.24 | 21.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 42 | 1.55 | 0.93 | 21.5 |
| Nashville TN | 41 | 1.78 | 0.02 | 21.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 41 | 1.88 | 0.85 | 21.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 41 | 1.90 | 0.78 | 21.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 42 | 1.93 | 0.83 | 21.5 |
| Lansing MI | 42 | 1.93 | 1.40 | 21.5 |
| Indianapolis IN | 42 | 1.98 | 0.93 | 21.5 |
| Salem OR | 41 | 1.98 | 1.39 | 21.0 |
| Madison WI | 41 | 1.98 | 1.49 | 21.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 42 | 2.10 | -1.81 | 21.5 |
| Des Moines IA | 42 | 2.12 | 1.02 | 21.5 |
| Montgomery AL | 42 | 2.17 | 0.26 | 21.5 |
| Little Rock AR | 42 | 2.17 | 0.60 | 21.5 |
| Bismarck ND | 42 | 2.21 | 2.21 | 21.5 |
| Springfield IL | 42 | 2.24 | 1.76 | 21.5 |
| Topeka KS | 42 | 2.29 | 2.24 | 21.5 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 41 | 2.34 | -0.05 | 21.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 42 | 2.40 | 1.83 | 21.5 |
| Atlanta GA | 42 | 2.45 | -2.07 | 21.5 |
| Dover DE | 42 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 21.5 |
| Pierre SD | 41 | 2.51 | 2.46 | 21.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 42 | 2.98 | 2.74 | 21.5 |
| Helena MT | 42 | 3.02 | 2.40 | 21.5 |
| Olympia WA | 41 | 3.10 | -0.32 | 21.0 |
| Boise ID | 42 | 3.17 | 2.40 | 21.5 |
| Lincoln NE | 42 | 3.21 | 3.21 | 21.5 |
| Charleston WV | 41 | 3.27 | 3.27 | 21.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 42 | 3.31 | -2.02 | 21.5 |
| Denver CO | 42 | 3.38 | 3.14 | 21.5 |
| Columbia SC | 41 | 3.39 | -3.39 | 21.0 |
| Hartford CT | 42 | 3.88 | 2.69 | 21.5 |
| Augusta ME | 42 | 4.00 | 2.43 | 21.5 |
| Phoenix AZ | 42 | 4.02 | 2.64 | 21.5 |
| Austin TX | 41 | 4.41 | 4.37 | 21.0 |
| Boston MA | 42 | 4.62 | 4.38 | 21.5 |
| Carson City NV | 42 | 4.67 | 4.05 | 21.5 |
| Providence RI | 41 | 4.76 | 4.66 | 21.0 |
| Concord NH | 42 | 5.17 | 4.17 | 21.5 |
| Montpelier VT | 41 | 5.49 | 3.44 | 21.0 |
| Albany NY | 42 | 6.21 | 4.40 | 21.5 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 62.0°F | 56.0°F | +6.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 105.0°F | 106.0°F | -1.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 101.0°F | 101.0°F | +0.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 91.0°F | 93.0°F | -2.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 92.0°F | 94.0°F | -2.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 88.0°F | -3.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 81.0°F | 84.0°F | -3.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 97.0°F | 93.0°F | +4.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 93.0°F | 88.0°F | +5.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 91.0°F | 87.0°F | +4.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 89.0°F | 87.0°F | +2.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 86.0°F | 80.0°F | +6.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 93.0°F | 90.0°F | +3.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 95.0°F | 88.0°F | +7.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 85.0°F | 86.0°F | -1.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 92.0°F | 87.0°F | +5.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 81.0°F | 77.0°F | +4.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 93.0°F | 83.0°F | +10.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 85.0°F | 75.0°F | +10.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 98.0°F | 94.0°F | +4.0° | 42.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 86.0°F | 87.0°F | -1.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 94.0°F | 91.0°F | +3.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 86.0°F | 78.0°F | +8.0° | 41.0 |
| 2026-07-15 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 89.0°F | -6.0° | 41.0 |