Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise ID | 169 | 1.72 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 169 | 1.75 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 169 | 1.76 | -0.62 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 169 | 1.79 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 169 | 1.92 | -1.87 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 169 | 2.04 | -1.40 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 169 | 2.07 | -0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 169 | 2.07 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 169 | 2.08 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 169 | 2.11 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 169 | 2.12 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 169 | 2.15 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 169 | 2.19 | -1.09 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 169 | 2.20 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 169 | 2.21 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 169 | 2.25 | 0.85 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 169 | 2.25 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 169 | 2.34 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 169 | 2.37 | -1.49 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 169 | 2.37 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 169 | 2.39 | 1.29 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 169 | 2.43 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 169 | 2.44 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 169 | 2.46 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 169 | 2.54 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 169 | 2.56 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 169 | 2.60 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 169 | 2.66 | 2.18 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 169 | 2.66 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 169 | 2.68 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 169 | 2.70 | -1.79 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 169 | 2.77 | 1.02 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 169 | 2.79 | -2.00 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 169 | 2.79 | -2.28 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 169 | 2.81 | -0.53 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 169 | 2.87 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 169 | 2.91 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 169 | 2.97 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 169 | 3.01 | 2.29 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 169 | 3.07 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 169 | 3.09 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 169 | 3.13 | -2.07 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 169 | 3.14 | 2.93 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 169 | 3.18 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 169 | 3.54 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 169 | 3.63 | 2.47 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 169 | 3.73 | -2.15 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 169 | 3.77 | 2.74 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 169 | 3.79 | 2.79 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 169 | 3.83 | 3.10 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 16:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 52.0°F | 57.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 96.0°F | 83.0°F | +13.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 79.0°F | 72.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 MDT | Denver CO | 69.0°F | 63.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Dover DE | 62.0°F | 61.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 67.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 14:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 85.0°F | 89.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 MDT | Boise ID | 91.0°F | 92.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 71.0°F | 67.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 69.0°F | 65.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 72.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 70.0°F | 67.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 81.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 54.0°F | 60.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 58.0°F | 56.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 78.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 72.0°F | 64.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 MDT | Helena MT | 79.0°F | 83.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 66.0°F | 62.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Concord NH | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 57.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 18:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 71.0°F | 74.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 19:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 88.0°F | 88.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 17:00 PDT | Salem OR | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Providence RI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-24 20:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 67.0°F | 62.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |