Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany NY | 184 | 1.78 | -0.79 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 1.81 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 1.88 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.95 | -1.80 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 1.99 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 1.99 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 2.01 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.10 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.10 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.15 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.21 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 2.23 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 2.27 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 2.29 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 2.30 | 0.96 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.32 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 184 | 2.33 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.33 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.36 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 2.40 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.43 | 1.17 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.47 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 2.51 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.55 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.56 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 2.59 | -0.33 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 2.60 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.61 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.66 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.72 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.77 | 0.09 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.78 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 2.81 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.84 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 2.84 | -1.60 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.88 | -0.29 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 2.92 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 3.00 | 0.92 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 3.02 | 0.70 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.03 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 3.11 | -0.36 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 3.16 | 1.82 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 3.18 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 3.26 | -2.22 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 3.32 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 3.58 | 3.28 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 3.60 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.93 | 2.03 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 3.96 | 2.40 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 4.15 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 75.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 64.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 69.0°F | 69.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 63.0°F | 64.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 63.0°F | 60.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 46.0°F | 35.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 56.0°F | 58.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 71.0°F | 71.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-27 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |