Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.22 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 171 | 1.58 | -0.82 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 171 | 1.96 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.05 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.12 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 171 | 2.26 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 171 | 2.36 | 1.21 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 171 | 2.42 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.51 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 171 | 2.51 | -0.43 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 171 | 2.52 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 2.53 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.56 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 171 | 2.61 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 171 | 2.65 | 0.74 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 2.66 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 171 | 2.68 | 0.88 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.73 | 1.75 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.73 | 2.34 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 171 | 2.76 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 171 | 2.78 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.79 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 171 | 2.90 | -2.26 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 171 | 2.92 | -0.01 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 171 | 2.96 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 171 | 2.96 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.97 | 2.10 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 171 | 2.97 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.99 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 171 | 3.01 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 3.04 | -1.15 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 3.05 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 171 | 3.08 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 171 | 3.11 | 0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 171 | 3.13 | 1.74 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 3.15 | -1.05 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 171 | 3.15 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 171 | 3.18 | 1.68 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 3.27 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 3.45 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 171 | 3.53 | 2.49 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.70 | 1.70 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.92 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 171 | 4.06 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 171 | 4.08 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 4.09 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 171 | 4.67 | 2.46 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 171 | 4.78 | 4.60 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 171 | 4.94 | 3.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 171 | 5.86 | 4.48 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 67.0°F | 65.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 72.0°F | 67.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 74.0°F | 75.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 83.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 45.0°F | 43.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 48.0°F | 49.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 64.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 53.0°F | 55.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 43.0°F | 43.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 42.0°F | 42.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 48.0°F | 51.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 44.0°F | 41.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 64.0°F | 57.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 55.0°F | 61.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 73.0°F | 76.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 43.0°F | 46.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 52.0°F | 51.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-16 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |