Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.26 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 1.35 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 1.96 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 1.99 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.05 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 2.09 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.09 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.20 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.23 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 2.26 | 0.48 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.26 | 0.72 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 2.26 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 2.27 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 2.30 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 2.36 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.40 | 1.35 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 2.43 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 2.47 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.52 | -0.98 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.53 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 2.53 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 2.58 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 2.60 | 0.25 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 2.61 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 2.67 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 2.68 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.68 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.73 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.73 | -0.59 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 2.76 | -1.89 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 2.84 | 0.41 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.86 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 2.87 | 0.90 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 2.88 | 1.65 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.89 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 2.99 | -0.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.03 | 2.12 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.07 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 3.08 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 3.10 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.14 | -2.41 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 3.17 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 3.22 | -2.39 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 3.29 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 3.31 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 3.34 | -2.21 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.37 | 2.22 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.57 | -1.02 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 3.76 | 0.28 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 42.0°F | 41.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 61.0°F | 64.0°F | -3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 MST | Denver CO | 41.0°F | 47.0°F | -6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Hartford CT | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Dover DE | 44.0°F | 49.0°F | -5.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 MST | Boise ID | 43.0°F | 45.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Springfield IL | 38.0°F | 32.0°F | +6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 39.0°F | 38.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Topeka KS | 44.0°F | 40.0°F | +4.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 36.0°F | 39.0°F | -3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 51.0°F | 48.0°F | +3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 40.0°F | -3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 46.0°F | 55.0°F | -9.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Boston MA | 45.0°F | 51.0°F | -6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Lansing MI | 38.0°F | 39.0°F | -1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Jackson MS | 42.0°F | 45.0°F | -3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 40.0°F | 38.0°F | +2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 MST | Helena MT | 39.0°F | 44.0°F | -5.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 40.0°F | +5.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 PST | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 32.0°F | +9.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Concord NH | 38.0°F | 37.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 43.0°F | 49.0°F | -6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 04:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 36.0°F | 34.0°F | +2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Albany NY | 42.0°F | 47.0°F | -5.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 44.0°F | 39.0°F | +5.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Columbus OH | 41.0°F | 38.0°F | +3.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 05:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 03:00 PST | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Providence RI | 42.0°F | 48.0°F | -6.0° | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-09 06:00 EST | Columbia SC | 46.0°F | 46.0°F | +0.0° | 45.0 |