Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 188 | 1.33 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 188 | 1.84 | -0.24 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 188 | 1.84 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 188 | 1.88 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 188 | 1.89 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 188 | 2.16 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 188 | 2.35 | 0.40 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 188 | 2.36 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 188 | 2.42 | 1.43 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 188 | 2.44 | 1.83 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 188 | 2.45 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 188 | 2.48 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 188 | 2.52 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 188 | 2.56 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 188 | 2.57 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 188 | 2.59 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 188 | 2.61 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 188 | 2.64 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 188 | 2.65 | 0.89 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 188 | 2.65 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 188 | 2.67 | 0.80 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 188 | 2.71 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 188 | 2.74 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 188 | 2.74 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 188 | 2.77 | -0.35 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 188 | 2.85 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 188 | 2.98 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 188 | 2.98 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 188 | 3.02 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 188 | 3.08 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 188 | 3.14 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 188 | 3.16 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 188 | 3.23 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 188 | 3.24 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 188 | 3.27 | -2.54 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 188 | 3.28 | 2.54 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 188 | 3.28 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 188 | 3.30 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 188 | 3.58 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 188 | 3.59 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 188 | 3.64 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 188 | 3.66 | 3.31 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 188 | 3.85 | 2.82 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 188 | 3.85 | 1.94 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 188 | 3.93 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 188 | 4.07 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 188 | 4.11 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 188 | 4.24 | 3.44 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 188 | 4.64 | 3.98 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 188 | 5.91 | 2.73 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 87.0°F | 87.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 89.0°F | 88.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 48.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 78.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Dover DE | 82.0°F | 86.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 86.0°F | 89.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 81.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 MDT | Boise ID | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 78.0°F | 77.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 80.0°F | 75.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 68.0°F | 60.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 72.0°F | 63.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 87.0°F | 82.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 90.0°F | 90.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 73.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 66.0°F | 60.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 92.0°F | 93.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 78.0°F | 73.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 MDT | Helena MT | 42.0°F | 43.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 80.0°F | 79.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 60.0°F | 65.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Albany NY | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 88.0°F | 89.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 56.0°F | 51.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 78.0°F | 82.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 14:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 70.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 PDT | Salem OR | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Providence RI | 73.0°F | 78.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 15:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 86.0°F | 88.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |