Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 190 | 1.25 | -0.76 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 189 | 1.84 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 189 | 1.92 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 190 | 2.09 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 190 | 2.15 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 189 | 2.27 | -0.22 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 189 | 2.29 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 190 | 2.34 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 190 | 2.46 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 189 | 2.46 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 189 | 2.47 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 190 | 2.50 | 0.07 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 189 | 2.51 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 189 | 2.52 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 190 | 2.58 | 2.23 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 189 | 2.58 | 0.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 189 | 2.63 | 0.77 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 190 | 2.64 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 189 | 2.68 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 190 | 2.70 | 0.73 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 189 | 2.70 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 190 | 2.77 | 1.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 189 | 2.78 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 190 | 2.83 | -0.86 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 189 | 2.85 | -0.07 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 189 | 2.87 | -0.08 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 189 | 2.87 | -2.08 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 190 | 2.90 | 1.98 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 190 | 2.91 | -1.13 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 190 | 2.94 | -0.93 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 189 | 2.95 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 189 | 2.95 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 189 | 3.03 | -0.70 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 189 | 3.06 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 189 | 3.07 | -1.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 190 | 3.08 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 190 | 3.09 | 2.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 189 | 3.27 | 0.69 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 189 | 3.28 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 189 | 3.34 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 190 | 3.45 | 2.89 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 190 | 3.58 | 1.45 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 190 | 3.70 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 190 | 3.83 | 2.36 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 189 | 3.85 | 1.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 189 | 3.97 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 189 | 4.38 | 4.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 189 | 4.41 | 2.17 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 189 | 4.73 | 3.56 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 189 | 5.56 | 4.16 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 68.0°F | 71.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 13:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 46.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 66.0°F | 67.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 84.0°F | 85.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 MDT | Denver CO | 79.0°F | 78.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 50.0°F | 51.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Dover DE | 54.0°F | 53.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 73.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 11:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 MDT | Boise ID | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 58.0°F | 60.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 57.0°F | 55.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 73.0°F | 73.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 42.0°F | 44.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Boston MA | 49.0°F | 48.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 54.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 61.0°F | 60.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 MDT | Helena MT | 67.0°F | 67.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Concord NH | 42.0°F | 46.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 15:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 61.0°F | 63.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Albany NY | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 70.0°F | 77.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 16:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 59.0°F | 59.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 14:00 PDT | Salem OR | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 52.0°F | 54.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Providence RI | 51.0°F | 49.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-17 17:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 65.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |