Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 176 | 1.34 | -0.15 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 176 | 1.80 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 176 | 1.85 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 176 | 1.87 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 176 | 1.94 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 176 | 2.19 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 176 | 2.39 | 1.20 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 176 | 2.44 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 176 | 2.48 | -0.74 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 176 | 2.49 | 1.48 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 176 | 2.51 | 1.15 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 176 | 2.51 | 1.88 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 176 | 2.53 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 176 | 2.57 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 176 | 2.58 | -1.16 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 176 | 2.60 | 0.75 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 176 | 2.63 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 176 | 2.64 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 176 | 2.64 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 176 | 2.64 | -0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 176 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 176 | 2.72 | 1.38 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 176 | 2.74 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 176 | 2.76 | -1.18 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 176 | 2.81 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 176 | 2.84 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 176 | 2.91 | 1.50 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 176 | 3.01 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 176 | 3.02 | -0.03 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 176 | 3.05 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 176 | 3.14 | -2.36 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 176 | 3.20 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 176 | 3.22 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 176 | 3.24 | 2.51 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 176 | 3.24 | -1.36 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 176 | 3.30 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 176 | 3.34 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 176 | 3.35 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 176 | 3.41 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 176 | 3.57 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 176 | 3.63 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 176 | 3.73 | 3.41 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 176 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 176 | 3.85 | 1.81 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 176 | 3.86 | 3.01 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 176 | 3.90 | 2.81 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 176 | 3.93 | -0.39 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 176 | 4.11 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 176 | 4.48 | 3.77 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 176 | 5.74 | 2.35 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 64.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 23:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 43.0°F | 34.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 63.0°F | 67.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 54.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 MDT | Denver CO | 53.0°F | 52.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 62.0°F | 64.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Dover DE | 67.0°F | 71.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 67.0°F | 66.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-13 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 73.0°F | 71.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 74.0°F | 74.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 61.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 69.0°F | 59.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 68.0°F | 69.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 49.0°F | 46.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Boston MA | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 53.0°F | 53.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 74.0°F | 70.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 MDT | Helena MT | 29.0°F | 33.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 62.0°F | 50.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 41.0°F | 37.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Concord NH | 54.0°F | 47.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 65.0°F | 64.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 01:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 52.0°F | 52.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Albany NY | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 38.0°F | 43.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 70.0°F | 68.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 02:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 79.0°F | 71.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00 PDT | Salem OR | 51.0°F | 47.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 67.0°F | 63.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Providence RI | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 03:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |