Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juneau AK | 170 | 1.21 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 170 | 1.67 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 170 | 1.69 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 170 | 1.71 | -0.44 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 170 | 1.74 | -0.20 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 170 | 1.82 | -0.88 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 170 | 1.83 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 170 | 1.94 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 170 | 1.99 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 170 | 2.02 | 0.05 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 170 | 2.11 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 170 | 2.18 | 0.59 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 170 | 2.19 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 170 | 2.25 | -1.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 170 | 2.26 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 170 | 2.28 | -1.46 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 170 | 2.28 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 170 | 2.28 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 170 | 2.31 | -0.78 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 170 | 2.39 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 170 | 2.39 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 170 | 2.40 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 170 | 2.41 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 170 | 2.42 | 1.58 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 170 | 2.45 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 170 | 2.46 | 1.79 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 170 | 2.47 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 170 | 2.49 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 170 | 2.49 | -1.12 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 170 | 2.51 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 170 | 2.55 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 170 | 2.58 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 170 | 2.58 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 170 | 2.66 | 1.26 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 170 | 2.70 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 170 | 2.75 | -0.40 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 170 | 2.78 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 170 | 2.81 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 170 | 2.83 | -2.11 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 170 | 2.95 | -1.90 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 170 | 3.25 | -1.03 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 170 | 3.26 | -2.69 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 170 | 3.31 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 170 | 3.59 | 2.04 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 170 | 3.71 | 2.63 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 170 | 3.74 | 2.24 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 170 | 3.80 | -0.58 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 170 | 3.81 | 2.38 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 170 | 4.01 | 1.85 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 170 | 4.24 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 17:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 93.0°F | 95.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 91.0°F | 89.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 MDT | Denver CO | 75.0°F | 78.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 57.0°F | 58.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Dover DE | 64.0°F | 62.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 70.0°F | 69.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 15:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 MDT | Boise ID | 84.0°F | 81.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 67.0°F | 61.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 66.0°F | 66.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 60.0°F | 64.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 65.0°F | 62.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 77.0°F | 75.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 50.0°F | 53.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 64.0°F | 63.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Boston MA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 57.0°F | 61.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 76.0°F | 77.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 68.0°F | 66.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 MDT | Helena MT | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 60.0°F | 61.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 81.0°F | 82.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 50.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 61.0°F | 57.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 19:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 62.0°F | 65.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 64.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 20:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 76.0°F | 75.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 18:00 PDT | Salem OR | 77.0°F | 79.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 62.0°F | 60.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Providence RI | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-04 21:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 72.0°F | 69.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |