Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 186 | 1.32 | -0.10 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 186 | 1.82 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 186 | 1.84 | -0.23 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 186 | 1.88 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 186 | 1.90 | -1.06 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 186 | 2.18 | 0.12 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 186 | 2.35 | 0.43 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 186 | 2.37 | 1.24 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 186 | 2.39 | 1.39 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 186 | 2.45 | -0.75 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 186 | 2.45 | 1.84 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 186 | 2.49 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 186 | 2.52 | 1.23 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 186 | 2.54 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 186 | 2.56 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 186 | 2.58 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 186 | 2.62 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 186 | 2.63 | 1.96 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 186 | 2.63 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 186 | 2.65 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 186 | 2.65 | 0.76 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 186 | 2.73 | 1.78 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 186 | 2.73 | -1.23 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 186 | 2.74 | -0.30 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 186 | 2.77 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 186 | 2.83 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 186 | 3.01 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 186 | 3.01 | 0.45 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 186 | 3.04 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 186 | 3.11 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 186 | 3.14 | 1.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 186 | 3.16 | -1.31 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 186 | 3.23 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 186 | 3.24 | -2.38 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 186 | 3.25 | -2.51 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 186 | 3.30 | 2.58 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 186 | 3.30 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 186 | 3.31 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 186 | 3.57 | 1.52 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 186 | 3.60 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 186 | 3.66 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 186 | 3.70 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 186 | 3.83 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 186 | 3.87 | 2.84 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 186 | 3.88 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 186 | 4.05 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 186 | 4.06 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 186 | 4.16 | 3.35 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 186 | 4.61 | 3.94 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 186 | 5.92 | 2.70 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 83.0°F | 81.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 09:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 44.0°F | 45.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 68.0°F | 65.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 MDT | Denver CO | 48.0°F | 45.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 74.0°F | 76.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Dover DE | 80.0°F | 85.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 07:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 75.0°F | 73.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 MDT | Boise ID | 49.0°F | 53.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 66.0°F | 57.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 71.0°F | 62.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 86.0°F | 85.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 60.0°F | 66.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 81.0°F | 85.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Boston MA | 69.0°F | 77.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 58.0°F | 50.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 90.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 76.0°F | 70.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 MDT | Helena MT | 36.0°F | 37.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 63.0°F | 57.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 48.0°F | 46.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Concord NH | 67.0°F | 68.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 78.0°F | 75.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 11:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Albany NY | 67.0°F | 69.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 85.0°F | 87.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 77.0°F | 81.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 12:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 80.0°F | 68.0°F | +12.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 10:00 PDT | Salem OR | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 78.0°F | 76.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Providence RI | 72.0°F | 80.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-14 13:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 83.0°F | 86.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |