Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 178 | 1.33 | -0.25 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 178 | 1.53 | 0.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 178 | 1.80 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 178 | 1.95 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 178 | 2.01 | 0.53 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 178 | 2.17 | -0.19 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 178 | 2.17 | 1.03 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 178 | 2.22 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 178 | 2.24 | -1.26 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 178 | 2.26 | 0.56 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 178 | 2.29 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 178 | 2.31 | -0.87 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 178 | 2.33 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 178 | 2.37 | -0.02 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 178 | 2.41 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 178 | 2.42 | -1.34 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 178 | 2.50 | 1.13 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 178 | 2.51 | -1.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 178 | 2.52 | 0.55 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 178 | 2.59 | -0.17 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 178 | 2.59 | 1.89 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 178 | 2.60 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 178 | 2.61 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 178 | 2.67 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 178 | 2.67 | -1.48 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 178 | 2.70 | -2.44 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 178 | 2.74 | -1.58 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 178 | 2.76 | 1.14 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 178 | 2.78 | 2.33 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 178 | 2.78 | 1.07 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 178 | 2.84 | -1.95 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 178 | 2.97 | -2.10 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 178 | 2.99 | 0.29 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 178 | 3.03 | -2.25 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 178 | 3.21 | 2.31 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 178 | 3.23 | 2.78 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 178 | 3.24 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 178 | 3.28 | 0.47 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 178 | 3.29 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 178 | 3.29 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 178 | 3.30 | -0.13 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 178 | 3.39 | 1.30 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 178 | 3.42 | 0.91 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 178 | 3.51 | -3.09 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 178 | 3.67 | 2.05 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 178 | 3.68 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 178 | 3.85 | 1.67 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 178 | 4.17 | 1.34 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 178 | 4.19 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 178 | 4.29 | -1.22 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 64.0°F | 60.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 01:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 42.0°F | 39.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 77.0°F | 76.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 61.0°F | 62.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 55.0°F | 52.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 MDT | Denver CO | 62.0°F | 63.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 47.0°F | 48.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Dover DE | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 71.0°F | 70.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 66.0°F | 63.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-10 23:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 78.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 MDT | Boise ID | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 52.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 61.0°F | 58.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 63.0°F | 65.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 64.0°F | 68.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 59.0°F | 60.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 65.0°F | 60.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 37.0°F | 36.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Boston MA | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 59.0°F | 52.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 62.0°F | 66.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 57.0°F | 56.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 MDT | Helena MT | 31.0°F | 31.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 69.0°F | 68.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 47.0°F | 46.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 36.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 03:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Albany NY | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 68.0°F | 70.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 59.0°F | 57.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 04:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 70.0°F | 60.0°F | +10.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 02:00 PDT | Salem OR | 46.0°F | 40.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Providence RI | 48.0°F | 47.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-10-11 05:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 71.0°F | 76.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |