Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Hawaii · Pacific/Honolulu · 21.31, -157.86

Latest observation
78.0°F
2026-11-08 21:00 HST · temp 78.0°F · feels 78.0°F · RH 64% · dew 65.0°F · wind 18.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
172
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.27°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-11-08 21:00 HST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (Pacific/Honolulu). Actual: 78.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

75°76°78°79°80° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 78.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-11-06 21:00 HST 48.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-06 22:00 HST 47.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-06 23:00 HST 46.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 04:00 HST 41.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 05:00 HST 40.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 06:00 HST 39.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 07:00 HST 38.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 08:00 HST 37.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 09:00 HST 36.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 10:00 HST 35.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 11:00 HST 34.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 12:00 HST 33.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 13:00 HST 32.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 14:00 HST 31.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 15:00 HST 30.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 16:00 HST 29.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 17:00 HST 28.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 18:00 HST 27.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 19:00 HST 26.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 20:00 HST 25.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 21:00 HST 24.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 22:00 HST 23.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 23:00 HST 22.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 00:00 HST 21.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 01:00 HST 20.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 02:00 HST 19.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 03:00 HST 18.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 04:00 HST 17.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 05:00 HST 16.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 06:00 HST 15.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 07:00 HST 14.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 08:00 HST 13.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 09:00 HST 12.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 10:00 HST 11.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 11:00 HST 10.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 12:00 HST 9.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 13:00 HST 8.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 14:00 HST 7.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 15:00 HST 6.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 16:00 HST 5.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 17:00 HST 4.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 18:00 HST 3.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 19:00 HST 2.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 20:00 HST 1.0 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-11-08 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 20:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 19:00 HST 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 18:00 HST 80.0°F 77.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 17:00 HST 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 16:00 HST 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 15:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 14:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 13:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 12:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 11:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 10:00 HST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 09:00 HST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 08:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 07:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 06:00 HST 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 05:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 04:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 03:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 02:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 01:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 00:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 23:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 22:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 21:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 20:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 19:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 18:00 HST 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 17:00 HST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 16:00 HST 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 15:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 14:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 13:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 12:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 11:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 10:00 HST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 09:00 HST 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 08:00 HST 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 07:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 06:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 05:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 04:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 23:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 21:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 20:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 19:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 18:00 HST 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 17:00 HST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 16:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 15:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 14:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 13:00 HST 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 12:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 11:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 10:00 HST 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 09:00 HST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 08:00 HST 76.0°F 79.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 07:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 06:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 05:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 04:00 HST 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 03:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 02:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 01:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 00:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 23:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 20:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 19:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 18:00 HST 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 17:00 HST 82.0°F 80.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 16:00 HST 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 15:00 HST 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 14:00 HST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 13:00 HST 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 12:00 HST 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 11:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 10:00 HST 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 09:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 08:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 07:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 06:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 05:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 04:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 03:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 02:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 01:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 00:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 23:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 20:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 19:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 18:00 HST 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 17:00 HST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 16:00 HST 82.0°F 78.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 15:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 14:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 13:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 12:00 HST 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 11:00 HST 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 10:00 HST 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 09:00 HST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 08:00 HST 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 07:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 06:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 05:00 HST 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 04:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 03:00 HST 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 02:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 01:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 00:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 23:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 22:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 21:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 20:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 19:00 HST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 18:00 HST 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 17:00 HST 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 16:00 HST 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 15:00 HST 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 14:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 13:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 12:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 11:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 10:00 HST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 09:00 HST 77.0°F 80.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 08:00 HST 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 07:00 HST 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 06:00 HST 73.0°F 77.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 05:00 HST 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 04:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 03:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 02:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 01:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 00:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 23:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 22:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 21:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 20:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 19:00 HST 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 18:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 17:00 HST 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 16:00 HST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 15:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 14:00 HST 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 13:00 HST 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 12:00 HST 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 11:00 HST 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 10:00 HST 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 09:00 HST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 08:00 HST 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 07:00 HST 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 06:00 HST 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 05:00 HST 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 04:00 HST 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 03:00 HST 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 02:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 01:00 HST 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 00:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 23:00 HST 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 22:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 21:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 20:00 HST 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 19:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 18:00 HST 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 17:00 HST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 16:00 HST 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 15:00 HST 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 14:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-11-07 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-06 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-05 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0°
2026-11-04 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-03 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-02 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-01 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-31 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-30 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-29 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0°
2026-10-28 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-27 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-26 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 73.0°F 70.0°F +3.0°