Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Washington · America/Los_Angeles · 47.04, -122.90

Latest observation
48.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC · Clear
Hour samples (7d)
3
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
5.67°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 55.0°F 55.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 54.0°F 54.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 54.0°F 54.0°F 0 Clear

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 55.0°F 48.0°F +7.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 56.0°F 50.0°F +6.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 82.0°F 58.0°F +24.0° 55.0°F 48.0°F +7.0°