Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 184 | 1.52 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 184 | 1.53 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 184 | 1.63 | 0.61 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 184 | 1.72 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 184 | 1.80 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 184 | 1.85 | -0.51 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 184 | 1.86 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 184 | 1.96 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 184 | 1.97 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 184 | 1.98 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 184 | 1.98 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 184 | 2.03 | -1.45 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 184 | 2.04 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 184 | 2.10 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 184 | 2.19 | -0.63 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 184 | 2.21 | 0.65 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 184 | 2.23 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 184 | 2.23 | 1.32 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 184 | 2.26 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 184 | 2.32 | -0.28 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 184 | 2.34 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 184 | 2.38 | -1.51 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 184 | 2.39 | -1.24 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 184 | 2.42 | 1.18 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 184 | 2.50 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 184 | 2.51 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 184 | 2.53 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 184 | 2.57 | -1.56 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 184 | 2.58 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 184 | 2.59 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 184 | 2.60 | 1.11 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 184 | 2.65 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 184 | 2.65 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 184 | 2.67 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 184 | 2.81 | 1.54 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 184 | 2.83 | 2.07 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 184 | 2.84 | 1.99 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 184 | 2.90 | -2.13 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 184 | 2.92 | 2.11 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 184 | 2.98 | 0.06 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 184 | 2.99 | 2.76 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 184 | 2.99 | 1.37 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 184 | 3.02 | 1.92 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 184 | 3.02 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 184 | 3.21 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 184 | 3.38 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 184 | 3.54 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 184 | 3.61 | 2.88 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 184 | 3.85 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 184 | 3.92 | 2.80 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 79.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 80.0°F | 83.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 60.0°F | 55.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 MDT | Denver CO | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 58.0°F | 62.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Dover DE | 66.0°F | 64.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 84.0°F | 84.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 82.0°F | 77.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 05:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 80.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 MDT | Boise ID | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 62.0°F | 62.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 63.0°F | 62.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 69.0°F | 58.0°F | +11.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 87.0°F | 84.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 55.0°F | 57.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 68.0°F | 62.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Boston MA | 59.0°F | 62.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 54.0°F | 56.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 88.0°F | 85.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 64.0°F | 67.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 MDT | Helena MT | 52.0°F | 50.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 57.0°F | 50.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Concord NH | 57.0°F | 60.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 60.0°F | 60.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 57.0°F | 64.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Albany NY | 57.0°F | 59.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 73.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 52.0°F | 49.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 64.0°F | 59.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 69.0°F | 70.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 59.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 57.0°F | 57.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Providence RI | 60.0°F | 63.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 11:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 82.0°F | 83.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |