Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Colorado · America/Denver · 39.74, -104.99

Latest observation
71.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC · Clear
Hour samples (7d)
4
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
3.50°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 72.0°F 72.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 72.0°F 72.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 72.0°F 72.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 72.0°F 72.0°F 0 Clear

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 97.0°F 78.0°F +19.0° 66.0°F 71.0°F -5.0°