Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · California · America/Los_Angeles · 38.58, -121.49

Latest observation
51.0°F
2026-11-08 23:00 PST · temp 51.0°F · feels 51.0°F · RH 89% · dew 48.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
172
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.40°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-11-08 23:00 PST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Los_Angeles). Actual: 51.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

49°51°53°54°56° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 51.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-11-06 23:00 PST 48.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 00:00 PST 47.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 01:00 PST 46.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-07 06:00 PST 41.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-07 07:00 PST 40.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-07 08:00 PST 39.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-07 09:00 PST 38.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-07 10:00 PST 37.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-07 11:00 PST 36.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-07 12:00 PST 35.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 13:00 PST 34.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 14:00 PST 33.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 15:00 PST 32.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 16:00 PST 31.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 17:00 PST 30.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 18:00 PST 29.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 19:00 PST 28.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 20:00 PST 27.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 21:00 PST 26.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 22:00 PST 25.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-07 23:00 PST 24.0 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-08 00:00 PST 23.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 01:00 PST 22.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 02:00 PST 21.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 03:00 PST 20.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 04:00 PST 19.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 05:00 PST 18.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 06:00 PST 17.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 07:00 PST 16.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 08:00 PST 15.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 09:00 PST 14.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 10:00 PST 13.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 11:00 PST 12.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 12:00 PST 11.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 13:00 PST 10.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 14:00 PST 9.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 15:00 PST 8.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 16:00 PST 7.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 17:00 PST 6.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 18:00 PST 5.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 19:00 PST 4.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 20:00 PST 3.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 21:00 PST 2.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-08 22:00 PST 1.0 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-11-08 23:00 PST 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 22:00 PST 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 21:00 PST 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 20:00 PST 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 19:00 PST 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 18:00 PST 63.0°F 60.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 17:00 PST 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 16:00 PST 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 15:00 PST 69.0°F 73.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 14:00 PST 68.0°F 72.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 13:00 PST 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 12:00 PST 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 11:00 PST 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 10:00 PST 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 09:00 PST 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 08:00 PST 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 07:00 PST 46.0°F 45.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 06:00 PST 46.0°F 46.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 05:00 PST 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 04:00 PST 47.0°F 47.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 03:00 PST 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 02:00 PST 49.0°F 47.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 01:00 PST 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 00:00 PST 52.0°F 53.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 23:00 PST 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 22:00 PST 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 21:00 PST 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 20:00 PST 59.0°F 55.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 19:00 PST 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 18:00 PST 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 17:00 PST 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 16:00 PST 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 15:00 PST 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 14:00 PST 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 13:00 PST 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 12:00 PST 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 11:00 PST 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 10:00 PST 60.0°F 63.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 09:00 PST 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 08:00 PST 51.0°F 48.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 07:00 PST 47.0°F 43.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 06:00 PST 47.0°F 44.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 01:00 PST 50.0°F 47.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 00:00 PST 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 23:00 PST 51.0°F 49.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 22:00 PST 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 21:00 PST 54.0°F 51.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 20:00 PST 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 19:00 PST 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 18:00 PST 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 17:00 PST 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 16:00 PST 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 15:00 PST 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 14:00 PST 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 13:00 PST 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 12:00 PST 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 11:00 PST 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 10:00 PST 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 09:00 PST 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 08:00 PST 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 07:00 PST 46.0°F 40.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 06:00 PST 46.0°F 41.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 05:00 PST 47.0°F 41.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 04:00 PST 47.0°F 41.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 03:00 PST 48.0°F 43.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 02:00 PST 49.0°F 44.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 01:00 PST 50.0°F 45.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 00:00 PST 51.0°F 46.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 23:00 PST 52.0°F 46.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 22:00 PST 53.0°F 48.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 21:00 PST 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 20:00 PST 57.0°F 51.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 19:00 PST 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 18:00 PST 62.0°F 57.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 17:00 PST 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 16:00 PST 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 15:00 PST 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 14:00 PST 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 13:00 PST 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 12:00 PST 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 11:00 PST 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 10:00 PST 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 09:00 PST 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 08:00 PST 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 07:00 PST 48.0°F 42.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 06:00 PST 48.0°F 42.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 05:00 PST 49.0°F 44.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 04:00 PST 49.0°F 44.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 03:00 PST 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 02:00 PST 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 01:00 PST 51.0°F 48.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 00:00 PST 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 23:00 PST 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 22:00 PST 54.0°F 52.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 21:00 PST 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 20:00 PST 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 19:00 PST 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 18:00 PST 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 17:00 PST 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 16:00 PST 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 15:00 PST 67.0°F 69.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 14:00 PST 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 13:00 PST 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 12:00 PST 63.0°F 64.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 11:00 PST 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 10:00 PST 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 09:00 PST 55.0°F 53.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 08:00 PST 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 07:00 PST 49.0°F 48.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 06:00 PST 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 05:00 PST 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 04:00 PST 50.0°F 50.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 03:00 PST 50.0°F 50.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 02:00 PST 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 01:00 PST 51.0°F 52.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 00:00 PST 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 23:00 PST 52.0°F 52.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 22:00 PST 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 21:00 PST 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 20:00 PST 54.0°F 55.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 19:00 PST 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 18:00 PST 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 17:00 PST 58.0°F 56.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 16:00 PST 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 15:00 PST 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 14:00 PST 60.0°F 56.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 13:00 PST 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 12:00 PST 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 11:00 PST 59.0°F 54.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 10:00 PST 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 09:00 PST 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 08:00 PST 52.0°F 49.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 07:00 PST 50.0°F 47.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 06:00 PST 50.0°F 45.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 05:00 PST 50.0°F 44.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 04:00 PST 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 03:00 PST 50.0°F 48.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 02:00 PST 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 01:00 PST 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 00:00 PST 53.0°F 51.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 23:00 PST 53.0°F 52.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 22:00 PST 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 21:00 PST 56.0°F 54.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 20:00 PST 57.0°F 54.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 19:00 PST 59.0°F 56.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 18:00 PST 61.0°F 57.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 17:00 PST 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 16:00 PST 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 15:00 PST 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 14:00 PST 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 13:00 PST 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 12:00 PST 61.0°F 65.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 11:00 PST 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 10:00 PST 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 09:00 PST 52.0°F 54.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 08:00 PST 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 07:00 PST 46.0°F 44.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 06:00 PST 46.0°F 45.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 05:00 PST 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 04:00 PST 47.0°F 47.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 03:00 PST 48.0°F 47.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 02:00 PST 49.0°F 45.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 01:00 PST 49.0°F 46.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 00:00 PST 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 23:00 PST 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 22:00 PST 52.0°F 51.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 21:00 PST 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 20:00 PST 55.0°F 57.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 19:00 PST 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 18:00 PST 59.0°F 57.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 17:00 PST 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 16:00 PST 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-11-07 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 47.0°F 43.0°F +4.0°
2026-11-06 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 45.0°F 40.0°F +5.0°
2026-11-05 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 47.0°F 42.0°F +5.0°
2026-11-04 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 49.0°F 48.0°F +1.0°
2026-11-03 60.0°F 57.0°F +3.0° 50.0°F 44.0°F +6.0°
2026-11-02 65.0°F 66.0°F -1.0° 45.0°F 44.0°F +1.0°
2026-11-01 64.0°F 69.0°F -5.0° 50.0°F 47.0°F +3.0°
2026-10-31 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 51.0°F 52.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-30 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-29 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-28 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 45.0°F 44.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-27 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 48.0°F 49.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-26 67.0°F 73.0°F -6.0° 51.0°F 53.0°F -2.0°