Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Alaska · America/Juneau · 58.30, -134.42

Latest observation
41.0°F
2026-11-08 22:00 AKST · temp 41.0°F · feels 34.0°F · RH 86% · dew 37.0°F · wind 13.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
172
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.34°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-11-08 22:00 AKST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Juneau). Actual: 41.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

37°39°40°42°43° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 41.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-11-06 22:00 AKST 48.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-06 23:00 AKST 47.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 00:00 AKST 46.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 05:00 AKST 41.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 06:00 AKST 40.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 07:00 AKST 39.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 08:00 AKST 38.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 09:00 AKST 37.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 10:00 AKST 36.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 11:00 AKST 35.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 12:00 AKST 34.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 13:00 AKST 33.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 14:00 AKST 32.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 15:00 AKST 31.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 16:00 AKST 30.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 17:00 AKST 29.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 18:00 AKST 28.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 19:00 AKST 27.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 20:00 AKST 26.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 21:00 AKST 25.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 22:00 AKST 24.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 23:00 AKST 23.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 00:00 AKST 22.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 01:00 AKST 21.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 02:00 AKST 20.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 03:00 AKST 19.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 04:00 AKST 18.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 05:00 AKST 17.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 06:00 AKST 16.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 07:00 AKST 15.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 08:00 AKST 14.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 09:00 AKST 13.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 10:00 AKST 12.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 11:00 AKST 11.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 12:00 AKST 10.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 13:00 AKST 9.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 14:00 AKST 8.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 15:00 AKST 7.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 16:00 AKST 6.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 17:00 AKST 5.0 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-08 18:00 AKST 4.0 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 19:00 AKST 3.0 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 20:00 AKST 2.0 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 21:00 AKST 1.0 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-11-08 22:00 AKST 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 21:00 AKST 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 20:00 AKST 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 19:00 AKST 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 18:00 AKST 40.0°F 40.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 17:00 AKST 40.0°F 40.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 16:00 AKST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 15:00 AKST 39.0°F 40.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 14:00 AKST 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 13:00 AKST 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 12:00 AKST 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 11:00 AKST 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 10:00 AKST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 09:00 AKST 38.0°F 38.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 08:00 AKST 38.0°F 38.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 07:00 AKST 38.0°F 38.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 06:00 AKST 38.0°F 38.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 05:00 AKST 38.0°F 38.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 04:00 AKST 38.0°F 38.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 03:00 AKST 37.0°F 39.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 02:00 AKST 38.0°F 40.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 01:00 AKST 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 00:00 AKST 38.0°F 41.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 23:00 AKST 39.0°F 42.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 22:00 AKST 39.0°F 43.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 21:00 AKST 40.0°F 45.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 20:00 AKST 40.0°F 39.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 19:00 AKST 40.0°F 37.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 18:00 AKST 40.0°F 38.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 17:00 AKST 40.0°F 38.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 16:00 AKST 41.0°F 39.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 15:00 AKST 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 14:00 AKST 42.0°F 42.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 13:00 AKST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 12:00 AKST 42.0°F 43.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 11:00 AKST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 10:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 09:00 AKST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 08:00 AKST 40.0°F 43.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 07:00 AKST 39.0°F 42.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 06:00 AKST 39.0°F 43.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 05:00 AKST 39.0°F 43.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 00:00 AKST 42.0°F 43.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 23:00 AKST 42.0°F 42.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 22:00 AKST 42.0°F 42.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 21:00 AKST 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 20:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 19:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 18:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 17:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 16:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 15:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 14:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 13:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 12:00 AKST 45.0°F 45.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 11:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 10:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 09:00 AKST 43.0°F 45.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 08:00 AKST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 07:00 AKST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 06:00 AKST 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 05:00 AKST 41.0°F 45.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 04:00 AKST 42.0°F 46.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 03:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 02:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 01:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 00:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 23:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 22:00 AKST 43.0°F 45.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 21:00 AKST 43.0°F 45.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 20:00 AKST 43.0°F 46.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 19:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 18:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 17:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 16:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 15:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 14:00 AKST 44.0°F 47.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 13:00 AKST 44.0°F 46.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 12:00 AKST 44.0°F 48.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 11:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 10:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 09:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 08:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 07:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 06:00 AKST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 05:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 04:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 03:00 AKST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 02:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 01:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 00:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 23:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 22:00 AKST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 21:00 AKST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 20:00 AKST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 19:00 AKST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 18:00 AKST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 17:00 AKST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 16:00 AKST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 15:00 AKST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 14:00 AKST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 13:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 12:00 AKST 45.0°F 43.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 11:00 AKST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 10:00 AKST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 09:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 08:00 AKST 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 07:00 AKST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 06:00 AKST 44.0°F 41.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 05:00 AKST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 04:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 03:00 AKST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 02:00 AKST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 01:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 00:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 23:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 22:00 AKST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 21:00 AKST 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 20:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 19:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 18:00 AKST 43.0°F 41.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 17:00 AKST 43.0°F 41.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 16:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 15:00 AKST 43.0°F 45.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 14:00 AKST 43.0°F 46.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 13:00 AKST 43.0°F 46.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 12:00 AKST 43.0°F 46.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 11:00 AKST 42.0°F 45.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 10:00 AKST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 09:00 AKST 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 08:00 AKST 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 07:00 AKST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 06:00 AKST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 05:00 AKST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 04:00 AKST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 03:00 AKST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 02:00 AKST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 01:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 00:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 23:00 AKST 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 22:00 AKST 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 21:00 AKST 42.0°F 41.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 20:00 AKST 42.0°F 41.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 19:00 AKST 42.0°F 41.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 18:00 AKST 42.0°F 42.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 17:00 AKST 43.0°F 41.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 16:00 AKST 42.0°F 42.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 15:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 14:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 13:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 12:00 AKST 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 11:00 AKST 42.0°F 43.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 10:00 AKST 42.0°F 42.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 09:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 08:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 07:00 AKST 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 06:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 05:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 04:00 AKST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 03:00 AKST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 02:00 AKST 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 01:00 AKST 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 00:00 AKST 42.0°F 41.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 23:00 AKST 42.0°F 40.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 22:00 AKST 43.0°F 40.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 21:00 AKST 43.0°F 39.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 20:00 AKST 43.0°F 39.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 19:00 AKST 43.0°F 39.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 18:00 AKST 43.0°F 40.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 17:00 AKST 43.0°F 40.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 16:00 AKST 43.0°F 40.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 15:00 AKST 42.0°F 41.0°F +1.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-11-07 42.0°F 45.0°F -3.0° 39.0°F 37.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-06 45.0°F 46.0°F -1.0° 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-05 44.0°F 48.0°F -4.0° 43.0°F 43.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-04 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 43.0°F 41.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-03 43.0°F 46.0°F -3.0° 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-02 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-01 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0° 41.0°F 39.0°F +2.0°
2026-10-31 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 34.0°F 34.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-30 40.0°F 40.0°F +0.0° 32.0°F 21.0°F +11.0°
2026-10-29 40.0°F 43.0°F -3.0° 31.0°F 24.0°F +7.0°
2026-10-28 43.0°F 50.0°F -7.0° 37.0°F 26.0°F +11.0°
2026-10-27 47.0°F 49.0°F -2.0° 38.0°F 28.0°F +10.0°
2026-10-26 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 38.0°F 31.0°F +7.0°