Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Kansas · America/Chicago · 39.05, -95.68

Latest observation
67.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC · Fog
Hour samples (7d)
4
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.25°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Clear
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Clear

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 91.0°F 70.0°F +21.0° 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0°