Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.35 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 1.41 | -0.41 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 1.76 | -0.81 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 1.85 | 0.24 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 1.85 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 1.91 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 1.91 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 1.92 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 1.94 | 0.08 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 2.08 | 0.44 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.11 | 0.11 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.12 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.21 | 0.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 2.22 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.23 | -0.16 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 2.24 | 0.17 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.31 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.38 | 1.47 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 2.39 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.43 | 0.94 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.48 | 2.01 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.52 | 0.51 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 2.55 | 0.33 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 2.59 | 0.82 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.62 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.63 | 0.10 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.63 | 1.08 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.66 | 2.16 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.66 | 0.68 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.66 | -0.65 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.74 | 2.15 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.77 | 1.63 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.88 | -0.83 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 2.97 | -0.21 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 2.99 | 1.90 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 3.03 | 1.87 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 3.03 | 1.19 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 3.12 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 3.13 | -0.42 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 3.16 | 1.71 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 3.21 | 1.16 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 3.21 | -1.63 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 3.26 | 2.62 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 3.29 | 0.26 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.67 | 1.49 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.83 | 3.40 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 3.95 | 3.63 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 4.11 | 3.37 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 4.34 | 3.24 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 84.0°F | 87.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 19:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 104.0°F | 102.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 90.0°F | 89.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 86.0°F | 83.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 MDT | Denver CO | 80.0°F | 77.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 69.0°F | 74.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Dover DE | 73.0°F | 70.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 85.0°F | 84.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 17:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 83.0°F | 85.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 MDT | Boise ID | 87.0°F | 88.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 77.0°F | 72.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 72.0°F | 71.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 81.0°F | 79.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 75.0°F | 74.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 85.0°F | 83.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 73.0°F | 72.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Boston MA | 70.0°F | 71.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 79.0°F | 79.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 85.0°F | 85.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 81.0°F | 80.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 MDT | Helena MT | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 82.0°F | 84.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 83.0°F | 84.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Concord NH | 66.0°F | 69.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 71.0°F | 69.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 21:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 79.0°F | 77.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Albany NY | 69.0°F | 66.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 77.0°F | 74.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 84.0°F | 80.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 72.0°F | 73.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 22:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 92.0°F | 89.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 20:00 PDT | Salem OR | 74.0°F | 72.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 71.0°F | 68.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Providence RI | 69.0°F | 72.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-07-28 23:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 84.0°F | 89.0°F | -5.0° | 48.0 |