Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 183 | 1.51 | 0.81 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 183 | 1.52 | 0.67 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 183 | 1.62 | 0.60 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 183 | 1.72 | -0.85 | 48.0 |
| Honolulu HI | 183 | 1.79 | -1.73 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 183 | 1.85 | -0.50 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 183 | 1.87 | -0.64 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 183 | 1.96 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 183 | 1.97 | -1.30 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 183 | 1.98 | 0.01 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 183 | 1.99 | -0.37 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 183 | 1.99 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 183 | 2.03 | -1.44 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 183 | 2.11 | -1.11 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 183 | 2.19 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 183 | 2.19 | 1.27 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 183 | 2.21 | 0.64 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 183 | 2.24 | 1.09 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 183 | 2.26 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 183 | 2.32 | -0.26 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 183 | 2.34 | -0.52 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 183 | 2.37 | -1.28 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 183 | 2.37 | 1.12 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 183 | 2.38 | -1.53 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 183 | 2.49 | 0.95 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 183 | 2.50 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 183 | 2.54 | 1.64 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 183 | 2.58 | 1.91 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 183 | 2.58 | -1.57 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 183 | 2.60 | 0.86 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 183 | 2.60 | 1.10 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 183 | 2.64 | 0.13 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 183 | 2.64 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 183 | 2.67 | -1.65 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 183 | 2.82 | 1.97 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 183 | 2.82 | 1.55 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 183 | 2.84 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 183 | 2.89 | -2.16 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 183 | 2.91 | 2.09 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 183 | 2.97 | 1.42 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 183 | 2.98 | 2.75 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 183 | 2.98 | 0.04 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 183 | 2.99 | 1.28 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 183 | 3.03 | 1.93 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 183 | 3.21 | -2.18 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 183 | 3.37 | 0.54 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 183 | 3.55 | -1.66 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 183 | 3.61 | 2.91 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 183 | 3.85 | -1.10 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 183 | 3.93 | 2.83 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Montgomery AL | 80.0°F | 76.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 06:00 AKDT | Juneau AK | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Little Rock AR | 76.0°F | 76.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 PDT | Sacramento CA | 59.0°F | 55.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 MDT | Denver CO | 57.0°F | 53.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Hartford CT | 56.0°F | 59.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Dover DE | 65.0°F | 63.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Tallahassee FL | 80.0°F | 80.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Atlanta GA | 78.0°F | 74.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 04:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 78.0°F | 80.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 MDT | Boise ID | 61.0°F | 59.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Springfield IL | 61.0°F | 61.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Indianapolis IN | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Des Moines IA | 55.0°F | 55.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Topeka KS | 59.0°F | 61.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Frankfort KY | 67.0°F | 58.0°F | +9.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Baton Rouge LA | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Augusta ME | 52.0°F | 55.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Annapolis MD | 66.0°F | 61.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Boston MA | 58.0°F | 59.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Lansing MI | 53.0°F | 54.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Saint Paul MN | 51.0°F | 52.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Jackson MS | 83.0°F | 80.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Jefferson City MO | 63.0°F | 66.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 MDT | Helena MT | 51.0°F | 45.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Lincoln NE | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 PDT | Carson City NV | 56.0°F | 48.0°F | +8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Concord NH | 53.0°F | 57.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Trenton NJ | 59.0°F | 58.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 08:00 MDT | Santa Fe NM | 56.0°F | 62.0°F | -6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Albany NY | 54.0°F | 55.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Raleigh NC | 74.0°F | 73.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Bismarck ND | 50.0°F | 49.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Columbus OH | 62.0°F | 59.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 09:00 CDT | Oklahoma City OK | 68.0°F | 68.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 07:00 PDT | Salem OR | 55.0°F | 58.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Harrisburg PA | 56.0°F | 57.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Providence RI | 58.0°F | 61.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-22 10:00 EDT | Columbia SC | 79.0°F | 80.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |