Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals
Mean absolute error (°F) using the earliest stored forecast for each hour vs the observed temperature. Lower is better. Ranked best → worst.
| Capital | Samples | MAE °F | Bias °F | Avg lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu HI | 172 | 1.27 | -0.46 | 48.0 |
| Juneau AK | 172 | 1.34 | -0.48 | 48.0 |
| Santa Fe NM | 172 | 1.92 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis IN | 172 | 2.03 | 0.52 | 48.0 |
| Columbia SC | 172 | 2.04 | -1.04 | 48.0 |
| Austin TX | 172 | 2.05 | -0.18 | 48.0 |
| Boise ID | 172 | 2.09 | 0.50 | 48.0 |
| Jackson MS | 172 | 2.09 | 0.46 | 48.0 |
| Annapolis MD | 172 | 2.15 | -0.67 | 48.0 |
| Trenton NJ | 172 | 2.15 | -0.55 | 48.0 |
| Richmond VA | 172 | 2.20 | -0.04 | 48.0 |
| Tallahassee FL | 172 | 2.22 | 0.39 | 48.0 |
| Little Rock AR | 172 | 2.26 | -0.47 | 48.0 |
| Lansing MI | 172 | 2.27 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Raleigh NC | 172 | 2.31 | 0.19 | 48.0 |
| Atlanta GA | 172 | 2.38 | -0.61 | 48.0 |
| Sacramento CA | 172 | 2.40 | 1.31 | 48.0 |
| Cheyenne WY | 172 | 2.42 | 0.49 | 48.0 |
| Des Moines IA | 172 | 2.45 | 0.84 | 48.0 |
| Charleston WV | 172 | 2.47 | 0.02 | 48.0 |
| Nashville TN | 172 | 2.51 | 0.62 | 48.0 |
| Harrisburg PA | 172 | 2.53 | -0.97 | 48.0 |
| Salem OR | 172 | 2.55 | -0.34 | 48.0 |
| Topeka KS | 172 | 2.58 | 1.05 | 48.0 |
| Montgomery AL | 172 | 2.62 | -1.27 | 48.0 |
| Springfield IL | 172 | 2.63 | 1.36 | 48.0 |
| Frankfort KY | 172 | 2.67 | 0.22 | 48.0 |
| Baton Rouge LA | 172 | 2.67 | 1.01 | 48.0 |
| Phoenix AZ | 172 | 2.72 | -1.99 | 48.0 |
| Salt Lake City UT | 172 | 2.72 | -2.03 | 48.0 |
| Saint Paul MN | 172 | 2.78 | -0.60 | 48.0 |
| Lincoln NE | 172 | 2.79 | 0.78 | 48.0 |
| Jefferson City MO | 172 | 2.84 | 0.35 | 48.0 |
| Bismarck ND | 172 | 2.86 | 0.97 | 48.0 |
| Columbus OH | 172 | 2.87 | 0.98 | 48.0 |
| Olympia WA | 172 | 2.90 | 1.66 | 48.0 |
| Augusta ME | 172 | 3.01 | -0.45 | 48.0 |
| Oklahoma City OK | 172 | 3.06 | 2.13 | 48.0 |
| Boston MA | 172 | 3.09 | -2.35 | 48.0 |
| Concord NH | 172 | 3.09 | -1.20 | 48.0 |
| Pierre SD | 172 | 3.10 | 1.72 | 48.0 |
| Denver CO | 172 | 3.12 | 0.15 | 48.0 |
| Madison WI | 172 | 3.12 | 0.58 | 48.0 |
| Providence RI | 172 | 3.17 | -2.33 | 48.0 |
| Carson City NV | 172 | 3.26 | 2.08 | 48.0 |
| Albany NY | 172 | 3.28 | -0.71 | 48.0 |
| Hartford CT | 172 | 3.29 | -2.14 | 48.0 |
| Dover DE | 172 | 3.29 | -0.69 | 48.0 |
| Helena MT | 172 | 3.54 | -0.94 | 48.0 |
| Montpelier VT | 172 | 3.79 | 0.34 | 48.0 |
Each row pairs an observation with the earliest forecast we had for that hour.
| When (local) | City | Forecast | Actual | Error | Lead (h) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Montgomery AL | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 22:00 AKST | Juneau AK | 39.0°F | 41.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 MST | Phoenix AZ | 65.0°F | 67.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Little Rock AR | 45.0°F | 45.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 PST | Sacramento CA | 54.0°F | 51.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 MST | Denver CO | 43.0°F | 47.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Hartford CT | 44.0°F | 52.0°F | -8.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Dover DE | 46.0°F | 49.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Tallahassee FL | 56.0°F | 50.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Atlanta GA | 47.0°F | 44.0°F | +3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 21:00 HST | Honolulu HI | 77.0°F | 78.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 MST | Boise ID | 46.0°F | 44.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Springfield IL | 42.0°F | 36.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Indianapolis IN | 43.0°F | 41.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Des Moines IA | 41.0°F | 43.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Topeka KS | 45.0°F | 44.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Frankfort KY | 37.0°F | 41.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Baton Rouge LA | 54.0°F | 49.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Augusta ME | 39.0°F | 39.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Annapolis MD | 47.0°F | 54.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Boston MA | 47.0°F | 49.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Lansing MI | 40.0°F | 43.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Saint Paul MN | 40.0°F | 39.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Jackson MS | 46.0°F | 47.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Jefferson City MO | 43.0°F | 42.0°F | +1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 MST | Helena MT | 40.0°F | 47.0°F | -7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Lincoln NE | 45.0°F | 39.0°F | +6.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 PST | Carson City NV | 46.0°F | 39.0°F | +7.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Concord NH | 40.0°F | 41.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Trenton NJ | 46.0°F | 50.0°F | -4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 00:00 MST | Santa Fe NM | 39.0°F | 34.0°F | +5.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Albany NY | 44.0°F | 46.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Raleigh NC | 47.0°F | 47.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Bismarck ND | 45.0°F | 41.0°F | +4.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Columbus OH | 43.0°F | 44.0°F | -1.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 01:00 CST | Oklahoma City OK | 49.0°F | 47.0°F | +2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-08 23:00 PST | Salem OR | 48.0°F | 50.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Harrisburg PA | 46.0°F | 48.0°F | -2.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Providence RI | 45.0°F | 48.0°F | -3.0° | 48.0 |
| 2026-11-09 02:00 EST | Columbia SC | 49.0°F | 49.0°F | +0.0° | 48.0 |