Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Delaware · America/New_York · 39.16, -75.52

Latest observation
85.0°F
2026-07-16 01:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
47
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
2.51°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-15 23:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York). Actual for that hour: 87.0°F. · Clear selection

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

83°85°86°88°89° 45h36h27h19h10h1h actual 87.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 45h36h27h19h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 45.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 44.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 43.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 42.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 41.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 40.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 39.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 38.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 37.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 36.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 35.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 34.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 33.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 32.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 31.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 30.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 29.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 28.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 27.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 26.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 25.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 24.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 23.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 22.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 21.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 20.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 19.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 18.0 86.0°F 87.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 17.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 16.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 15.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 14.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 13.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 12.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 11.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 10.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 9.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 8.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 7.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 6.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 5.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 4.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 3.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 2.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 1.0 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0°

Hourly accuracy

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 01:00 EDT 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 00:00 EDT 84.0°F 87.0°F -3.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 90.0°F 92.0°F -2.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 97.0°F 94.0°F +3.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 23.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 75.0°F 79.0°F -4.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 85.0°F 87.0°F -2.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 64.0°F 66.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 64.0°F 67.0°F -3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 73.0°F 66.0°F +7.0°