Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Colorado · America/Denver · 39.74, -104.99

Latest observation
78.0°F
2026-07-15 23:00 MDT
Hour samples (7d)
47
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
3.28°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-15 22:00 MDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Denver). Actual for that hour: 82.0°F. · Clear selection

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

80°82°84°85°87° 46h37h28h19h10h1h actual 82.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 46h37h28h19h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-14 00:00 MDT 46.0 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 MDT 45.0 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 44.0 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 43.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 42.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 41.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 40.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 39.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 38.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 37.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 36.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 35.0 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 34.0 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 33.0 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT 32.0 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 MDT 31.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 MDT 30.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT 29.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 MDT 28.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT 27.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT 26.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT 25.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT 24.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 MDT 23.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 MDT 22.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 MDT 21.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 MDT 20.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 MDT 19.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 MDT 18.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 MDT 17.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT 16.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT 15.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 MDT 14.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 MDT 13.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 MDT 12.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 MDT 11.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 MDT 10.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT 9.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT 8.0 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT 7.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 MDT 6.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 MDT 5.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 MDT 4.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 MDT 3.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 MDT 2.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT 1.0 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0°

Hourly accuracy

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 23:00 MDT 81.0°F 78.0°F +3.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 22:00 MDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 20:00 MDT 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 19:00 MDT 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 18:00 MDT 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 17:00 MDT 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 16:00 MDT 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT 92.0°F 91.0°F +1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 12:00 MDT 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 11:00 MDT 84.0°F 78.0°F +6.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 10:00 MDT 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 09:00 MDT 75.0°F 72.0°F +3.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 08:00 MDT 72.0°F 69.0°F +3.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 05:00 MDT 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 04:00 MDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 03:00 MDT 73.0°F 72.0°F +1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 02:00 MDT 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 01:00 MDT 78.0°F 74.0°F +4.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 00:00 MDT 80.0°F 75.0°F +5.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 23:00 MDT 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT 93.0°F 92.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 18:00 MDT 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 16:00 MDT 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 15:00 MDT 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT 94.0°F 92.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 92.0°F 83.0°F +9.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 89.0°F 83.0°F +6.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 81.0°F 69.0°F +12.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 74.0°F 69.0°F +5.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 72.0°F 71.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 01:00 MDT 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 97.0°F 95.0°F +2.0° 66.0°F 66.0°F +0.0°