Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Colorado · America/Denver · 39.74, -104.99

Latest observation
44.0°F
2026-11-09 06:00 MST · temp 44.0°F · feels 39.0°F · RH 41% · dew 22.0°F · wind 10.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
178
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.17°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-11-09 06:00 MST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Denver). Actual: 44.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

38°40°42°44°46° 47h38h29h19h10h1h actual 44.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 47h38h29h19h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-11-07 07:00 MST 47.0 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 08:00 MST 46.0 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 09:00 MST 45.0 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 10:00 MST 44.0 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 11:00 MST 43.0 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 12:00 MST 42.0 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 13:00 MST 41.0 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 14:00 MST 40.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-07 15:00 MST 39.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-07 16:00 MST 38.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-07 17:00 MST 37.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-07 18:00 MST 36.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-07 19:00 MST 35.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-07 20:00 MST 34.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-07 21:00 MST 33.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-07 22:00 MST 32.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-07 23:00 MST 31.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 00:00 MST 30.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 01:00 MST 29.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 02:00 MST 28.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 03:00 MST 27.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 04:00 MST 26.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 05:00 MST 25.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 06:00 MST 24.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 07:00 MST 23.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 08:00 MST 22.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 09:00 MST 21.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 10:00 MST 20.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 11:00 MST 19.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 12:00 MST 18.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 13:00 MST 17.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 14:00 MST 16.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 15:00 MST 15.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 16:00 MST 14.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 17:00 MST 13.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 18:00 MST 12.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 19:00 MST 11.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 20:00 MST 10.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 21:00 MST 9.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 22:00 MST 8.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-08 23:00 MST 7.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-09 00:00 MST 6.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-09 01:00 MST 5.0 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0°
2026-11-09 02:00 MST 4.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-09 03:00 MST 3.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-09 04:00 MST 2.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°
2026-11-09 05:00 MST 1.0 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-11-09 06:00 MST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 47.0
2026-11-09 05:00 MST 41.0°F 45.0°F -4.0° 46.0
2026-11-09 04:00 MST 41.0°F 47.0°F -6.0° 45.0
2026-11-09 03:00 MST 42.0°F 47.0°F -5.0° 44.0
2026-11-09 02:00 MST 42.0°F 47.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-09 01:00 MST 42.0°F 47.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-09 00:00 MST 43.0°F 47.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 23:00 MST 44.0°F 47.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 22:00 MST 46.0°F 50.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 21:00 MST 48.0°F 51.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 20:00 MST 50.0°F 54.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 19:00 MST 53.0°F 58.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 18:00 MST 57.0°F 65.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 17:00 MST 60.0°F 69.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 16:00 MST 62.0°F 70.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 15:00 MST 64.0°F 68.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 14:00 MST 66.0°F 67.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 13:00 MST 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 12:00 MST 61.0°F 58.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 11:00 MST 59.0°F 58.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 10:00 MST 53.0°F 58.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 09:00 MST 47.0°F 49.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 08:00 MST 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 07:00 MST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 06:00 MST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 05:00 MST 38.0°F 40.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 04:00 MST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 03:00 MST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 02:00 MST 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 01:00 MST 39.0°F 42.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 00:00 MST 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 23:00 MST 41.0°F 45.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 22:00 MST 43.0°F 49.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 21:00 MST 44.0°F 50.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 20:00 MST 46.0°F 48.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 19:00 MST 49.0°F 46.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 18:00 MST 51.0°F 54.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 17:00 MST 54.0°F 62.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 16:00 MST 56.0°F 64.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 15:00 MST 58.0°F 64.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 14:00 MST 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 13:00 MST 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 12:00 MST 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 11:00 MST 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 10:00 MST 49.0°F 52.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 09:00 MST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 08:00 MST 38.0°F 37.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 07:00 MST 37.0°F 36.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 02:00 MST 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 01:00 MST 37.0°F 39.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 00:00 MST 39.0°F 40.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 23:00 MST 40.0°F 41.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 22:00 MST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 21:00 MST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 20:00 MST 44.0°F 46.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 19:00 MST 47.0°F 52.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 18:00 MST 49.0°F 54.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 17:00 MST 52.0°F 58.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 16:00 MST 53.0°F 58.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 15:00 MST 54.0°F 58.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 14:00 MST 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 13:00 MST 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 12:00 MST 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 11:00 MST 52.0°F 49.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 10:00 MST 49.0°F 42.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 09:00 MST 45.0°F 42.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 08:00 MST 41.0°F 38.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 07:00 MST 40.0°F 39.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 06:00 MST 39.0°F 42.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 05:00 MST 38.0°F 41.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 04:00 MST 38.0°F 44.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 03:00 MST 38.0°F 44.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 02:00 MST 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 01:00 MST 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 00:00 MST 39.0°F 43.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 23:00 MST 40.0°F 44.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 22:00 MST 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 21:00 MST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 20:00 MST 45.0°F 52.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 19:00 MST 48.0°F 52.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 18:00 MST 50.0°F 52.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 17:00 MST 53.0°F 58.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 16:00 MST 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 15:00 MST 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 14:00 MST 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 13:00 MST 59.0°F 52.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 12:00 MST 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 11:00 MST 54.0°F 42.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 10:00 MST 49.0°F 42.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 09:00 MST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 08:00 MST 39.0°F 35.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 07:00 MST 39.0°F 34.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 06:00 MST 38.0°F 35.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 05:00 MST 37.0°F 37.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 04:00 MST 38.0°F 35.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 03:00 MST 39.0°F 37.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 02:00 MST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 01:00 MST 40.0°F 40.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 00:00 MST 42.0°F 42.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 23:00 MST 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 22:00 MST 44.0°F 45.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 21:00 MST 45.0°F 45.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 20:00 MST 46.0°F 54.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 19:00 MST 48.0°F 54.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 18:00 MST 50.0°F 54.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 17:00 MST 52.0°F 54.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 16:00 MST 53.0°F 54.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 15:00 MST 55.0°F 56.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 14:00 MST 56.0°F 55.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 13:00 MST 56.0°F 50.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 12:00 MST 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 11:00 MST 53.0°F 41.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 10:00 MST 48.0°F 41.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 09:00 MST 43.0°F 41.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 08:00 MST 38.0°F 37.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 07:00 MST 37.0°F 37.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 06:00 MST 37.0°F 37.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 05:00 MST 36.0°F 36.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 04:00 MST 36.0°F 36.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 03:00 MST 37.0°F 36.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 02:00 MST 37.0°F 39.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 01:00 MST 38.0°F 38.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 00:00 MST 40.0°F 39.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 23:00 MST 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 22:00 MST 43.0°F 41.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 21:00 MST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 20:00 MST 46.0°F 45.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 19:00 MST 49.0°F 45.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 18:00 MST 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 17:00 MST 54.0°F 53.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 16:00 MST 55.0°F 55.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 15:00 MST 57.0°F 55.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 14:00 MST 58.0°F 53.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 13:00 MST 58.0°F 51.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 12:00 MST 57.0°F 49.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 11:00 MST 55.0°F 42.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 10:00 MST 51.0°F 42.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 09:00 MST 47.0°F 42.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 08:00 MST 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 07:00 MST 42.0°F 43.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 06:00 MST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 05:00 MST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 04:00 MST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 03:00 MST 42.0°F 43.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 02:00 MST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 01:00 MST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 00:00 MST 44.0°F 44.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 23:00 MST 45.0°F 44.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 22:00 MST 45.0°F 45.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 21:00 MST 45.0°F 47.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 20:00 MST 46.0°F 47.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 19:00 MST 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 18:00 MST 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 17:00 MST 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 16:00 MST 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 15:00 MST 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 14:00 MST 54.0°F 49.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 13:00 MST 57.0°F 48.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 12:00 MST 57.0°F 47.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 11:00 MST 57.0°F 47.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 10:00 MST 54.0°F 47.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 09:00 MST 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 08:00 MST 48.0°F 47.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 07:00 MST 48.0°F 47.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 06:00 MST 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 05:00 MST 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 04:00 MST 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 03:00 MST 48.0°F 45.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 02:00 MST 48.0°F 46.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 01:00 MST 49.0°F 46.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 00:00 MST 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 23:00 MST 51.0°F 46.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 22:00 MST 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 21:00 MST 53.0°F 48.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 20:00 MST 54.0°F 48.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 19:00 MST 56.0°F 52.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 18:00 MST 58.0°F 52.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 17:00 MST 60.0°F 54.0°F +6.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-11-08 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0° 37.0°F 39.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-07 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 36.0°F 36.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-06 55.0°F 58.0°F -3.0° 36.0°F 38.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-05 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 36.0°F 34.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-04 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0° 35.0°F 36.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-03 58.0°F 55.0°F +3.0° 41.0°F 41.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-02 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 47.0°F 44.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-01 64.0°F 55.0°F +9.0° 44.0°F 46.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-31 62.0°F 59.0°F +3.0° 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0°
2026-10-30 65.0°F 68.0°F -3.0° 43.0°F 36.0°F +7.0°
2026-10-29 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 40.0°F 36.0°F +4.0°
2026-10-28 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-27 69.0°F 66.0°F +3.0° 39.0°F 30.0°F +9.0°
2026-10-26 63.0°F 57.0°F +6.0° 45.0°F 41.0°F +4.0°