Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · California · America/Los_Angeles · 38.58, -121.49

Latest observation
73.0°F
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT
Hour samples (7d)
8
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
2.13°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 07:00 PDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-13 23:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 68.0°F 68.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 67.0°F 70.0°F -3.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 68.0°F 71.0°F -3.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 05:00 PDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-13 23:00 PDT68.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT68.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT68.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT68.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT68.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT68.0°F0Partly Cloudy

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-13 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 66.0°F 70.0°F -4.0°