Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · California · America/Los_Angeles · 38.58, -121.49

Latest observation
72.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC · Clear
Hour samples (7d)
5
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.20°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 69.0°F 69.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 69.0°F 69.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 69.0°F 69.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 69.0°F 69.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 69.0°F 69.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 69.0°F 72.0°F -3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC73.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC73.0°F0Partly Cloudy

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 100.0°F 76.0°F +24.0° 66.0°F 72.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-13 96.0°F 79.0°F +17.0° 66.0°F 79.0°F -13.0°