Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · West Virginia · America/New_York · 38.35, -81.63

Latest observation
88.0°F
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
15
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.60°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 18:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 89.0°F 91.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 90.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 90.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 90.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 90.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 89.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 89.0°F — — —

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 81.0°F 79.0°F +2.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 72.0°F 68.0°F +4.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 16:00 EDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT90.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT91.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT91.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT91.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT91.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT91.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT91.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT91.0°F——
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT91.0°F——
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT91.0°F——
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT91.0°F——
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT90.0°F——
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT90.0°F——

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.