Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · West Virginia · America/New_York · 38.35, -81.63

Latest observation
64.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC · Fog
Hour samples (7d)
4
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
0.50°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 65.0°F 65.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 64.0°F 64.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 64.0°F 64.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 64.0°F 64.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 65.0°F 64.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 09:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC65.0°F0Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC64.0°F0Mostly Clear

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 90.0°F 66.0°F +24.0° 68.0°F 64.0°F +4.0°