Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Washington · America/Los_Angeles · 47.04, -122.90

Latest observation
84.0°F
2026-07-14 15:00 PDT
Hour samples (7d)
15
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
5.00°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 15:00 PDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT 80.0°F 80.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 79.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT 79.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT 79.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 10:00 PDT 79.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 11:00 PDT 79.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 12:00 PDT 79.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT 80.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 14:00 PDT 80.0°F — — —

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 15:00 PDT 80.0°F 84.0°F -4.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 14:00 PDT 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 13:00 PDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 12:00 PDT 71.0°F 76.0°F -5.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 11:00 PDT 68.0°F 73.0°F -5.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 10:00 PDT 66.0°F 68.0°F -2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT 60.0°F 65.0°F -5.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 55.0°F 50.0°F +5.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 53.0°F 44.0°F +9.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 53.0°F 47.0°F +6.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 54.0°F 45.0°F +9.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 55.0°F 48.0°F +7.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 56.0°F 50.0°F +6.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 57.0°F 53.0°F +4.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 13:00 PDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT75.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT75.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT75.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT75.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT75.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT75.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT75.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT75.0°F——
2026-07-14 08:00 PDT75.0°F——
2026-07-14 09:00 PDT75.0°F——
2026-07-14 10:00 PDT75.0°F——
2026-07-14 11:00 PDT75.0°F——
2026-07-14 12:00 PDT75.0°F——

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.