Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Vermont · America/New_York · 44.26, -72.58

Latest observation
72.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
7
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
3.43°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 10:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 80.0°F 82.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 80.0°F 82.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 80.0°F 82.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 80.0°F 82.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 80.0°F 82.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 80.0°F 82.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 0 Partly Cloudy

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 80.0°F 72.0°F +8.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 76.0°F 69.0°F +7.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 71.0°F 67.0°F +4.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 65.0°F 67.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 63.0°F 63.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 08:00 EDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT71.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT70.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT70.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT70.0°F0Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT70.0°F0Mostly Cloudy

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.