Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Tennessee · America/Chicago · 36.16, -86.78

Latest observation
88.0°F
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT
Hour samples (7d)
15
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.13°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Chicago).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 85.0°F 94.0°F 49 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 85.0°F 94.0°F 36 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 85.0°F 94.0°F 36 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 85.0°F 94.0°F 36 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 85.0°F 94.0°F 36 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 86.0°F 94.0°F 25 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 86.0°F 94.0°F 25 Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 86.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 86.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 86.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 86.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 86.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 86.0°F
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 86.0°F
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 86.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 85.0°F 88.0°F -3.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT87.0°F40Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT86.0°F33Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT86.0°F33Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT86.0°F33Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT86.0°F33Chance of Storms
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT87.0°F21Isolated Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT87.0°F21Isolated Storms
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT87.0°F
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT87.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT87.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT87.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT87.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT87.0°F
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT87.0°F

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.