Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Arkansas · America/Chicago · 34.75, -92.29

Latest observation
75.0°F
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT · temp 75.0°F · feels 75.0°F · RH 94% · dew 73.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
48
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.06°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-07-16 01:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Chicago). Actual: 75.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

71°73°74°76°77° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 75.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT 48.0 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 47.0 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 46.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 45.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 44.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 43.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 42.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 41.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 40.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 39.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 38.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 37.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 36.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 35.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 34.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 33.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 32.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 31.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 30.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 29.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 28.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 27.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT 26.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT 25.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT 24.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT 23.0 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT 22.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT 21.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT 20.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT 19.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT 18.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT 17.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT 16.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT 15.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT 14.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT 13.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT 12.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT 11.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT 10.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT 9.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 CDT 8.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 CDT 7.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 CDT 6.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 CDT 5.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 CDT 4.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT 3.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 23:00 CDT 2.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-16 00:00 CDT 1.0 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 00:00 CDT 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 23:00 CDT 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 21:00 CDT 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 20:00 CDT 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 19:00 CDT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 18:00 CDT 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 17:00 CDT 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT 83.0°F 79.0°F +4.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT 79.0°F 75.0°F +4.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT 75.0°F 74.0°F +1.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 81.0°F 74.0°F +7.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 78.0°F 81.0°F -3.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 72.0°F 75.0°F -3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0°