Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Oregon · America/Los_Angeles · 44.94, -123.04

Latest observation
58.0°F
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT
Hour samples (7d)
7
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
1.14°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 07:00 PDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 58.0°F 58.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 59.0°F 59.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 07:00 PDT 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 06:00 PDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT 56.0°F 58.0°F -2.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT 57.0°F 57.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT 58.0°F 58.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT 60.0°F 62.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 06:00 PDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 00:00 PDT56.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 01:00 PDT56.0°F0Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 PDT56.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 PDT56.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 PDT56.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 PDT56.0°F0Sunny

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.