Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Arizona · America/Phoenix · 33.45, -112.07

Latest observation
83.0°F
2026-07-14 07:00 MST
Hour samples (7d)
8
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
9.00°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 07:00 MST changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Phoenix).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-13 23:00 MST 91.0°F 94.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 00:00 MST 91.0°F 94.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 01:00 MST 91.0°F 94.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 MST 91.0°F 94.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 MST 91.0°F 94.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 MST 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 MST 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 MST 86.0°F 89.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 07:00 MST 91.0°F 83.0°F +8.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 06:00 MST 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 05:00 MST 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 04:00 MST 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 03:00 MST 91.0°F 83.0°F +8.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 02:00 MST 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 01:00 MST 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 00:00 MST 94.0°F 81.0°F +13.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 05:00 MST

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-13 23:00 MST89.0°F0Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 00:00 MST89.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 01:00 MST89.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 02:00 MST89.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 MST89.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 MST82.0°F0Partly Cloudy

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-13 106.0°F 108.0°F -2.0° 87.0°F 77.6°F +9.4°