Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Arizona · America/Phoenix · 33.45, -112.07

Latest observation
82.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC · Mostly Clear
Hour samples (7d)
5
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
10.20°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 11:00 UTC changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour).

Collected at Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC 90.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 90.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 90.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Clear
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 90.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Clear

Hourly accuracy

Hour (UTC) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 11:00 UTC 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 10:00 UTC 91.0°F 83.0°F +8.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 09:00 UTC 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC 94.0°F 81.0°F +13.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 09:00 UTC

CollectedTempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 06:00 UTC93.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 UTC93.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 08:00 UTC93.0°F0Partly Cloudy

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs observed calendar-day max/min (from hourly obs in local time).

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 108.0°F 83.0°F +25.0° 89.0°F 81.0°F +8.0°
2026-07-13 106.0°F 80.0°F +26.0° 87.0°F 80.0°F +7.0°