Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Arizona · America/Phoenix · 33.45, -112.07

Latest observation
90.0°F
2026-07-16 00:00 MST · temp 90.0°F · feels 94.0°F · RH 49% · dew 68.0°F · wind 14.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
49
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.98°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-07-16 00:00 MST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Phoenix). Actual: 90.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

88°90°93°95°97° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 90.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-6°-3°+0°+3°+6° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-14 00:00 MST 48.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 MST 47.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 MST 46.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 MST 45.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 MST 44.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 MST 43.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 MST 42.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 MST 41.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 MST 40.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 MST 39.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 MST 38.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 MST 37.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 MST 36.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 MST 35.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 MST 34.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 MST 33.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 MST 32.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 MST 31.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 MST 30.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 MST 29.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 MST 28.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 MST 27.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 MST 26.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 MST 25.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 MST 24.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 MST 23.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 MST 22.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 MST 21.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 MST 20.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 MST 19.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 MST 18.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 MST 17.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 MST 16.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 MST 15.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 MST 14.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 MST 13.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 MST 12.0 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 MST 11.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 MST 10.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 MST 9.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 MST 8.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 MST 7.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 MST 6.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 MST 5.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 MST 4.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 MST 3.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 22:00 MST 2.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-15 23:00 MST 1.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 00:00 MST 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 23:00 MST 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 22:00 MST 96.0°F 92.0°F +4.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MST 97.0°F 92.0°F +5.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 20:00 MST 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 19:00 MST 101.0°F 99.0°F +2.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 18:00 MST 103.0°F 108.0°F -5.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 17:00 MST 105.0°F 106.0°F -1.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 16:00 MST 105.0°F 108.0°F -3.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MST 106.0°F 104.0°F +2.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MST 106.0°F 105.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MST 105.0°F 102.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 12:00 MST 103.0°F 101.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 11:00 MST 102.0°F 100.0°F +2.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 10:00 MST 99.0°F 98.0°F +1.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 09:00 MST 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 08:00 MST 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MST 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MST 90.0°F 93.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 05:00 MST 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 04:00 MST 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 03:00 MST 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 02:00 MST 95.0°F 96.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 01:00 MST 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 00:00 MST 97.0°F 99.0°F -2.0° 25.0
2026-07-14 23:00 MST 97.0°F 101.0°F -4.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 22:00 MST 99.0°F 102.0°F -3.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MST 100.0°F 102.0°F -2.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MST 102.0°F 103.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MST 104.0°F 104.0°F +0.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 18:00 MST 106.0°F 106.0°F +0.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MST 107.0°F 106.0°F +1.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 16:00 MST 107.0°F 104.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 15:00 MST 108.0°F 103.0°F +5.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MST 106.0°F 101.0°F +5.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 13:00 MST 106.0°F 98.0°F +8.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 12:00 MST 104.0°F 97.0°F +7.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 11:00 MST 101.0°F 95.0°F +6.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MST 99.0°F 92.0°F +7.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MST 97.0°F 89.0°F +8.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 08:00 MST 93.0°F 86.0°F +7.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 07:00 MST 91.0°F 83.0°F +8.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 06:00 MST 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 05:00 MST 89.0°F 82.0°F +7.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 04:00 MST 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 03:00 MST 91.0°F 83.0°F +8.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 02:00 MST 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 01:00 MST 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 00:00 MST 94.0°F 81.0°F +13.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 107.0°F 108.0°F -1.0° 86.0°F 91.0°F -5.0°
2026-07-14 108.0°F 106.0°F +2.0° 89.0°F 81.0°F +8.0°
2026-07-13 106.0°F 108.0°F -2.0° 87.0°F 77.6°F +9.4°