Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Arizona · America/Phoenix · 33.45, -112.07

Latest observation
86.0°F
2026-09-22 09:00 MST · temp 86.0°F · feels 86.0°F · RH 31% · dew 52.0°F · wind 3.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
185
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.84°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-09-22 09:00 MST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Phoenix). Actual: 86.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

82°84°85°87°88° 48h39h29h20h10h1h actual 86.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 48h39h29h20h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-09-20 09:00 MST 48.0 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-20 10:00 MST 47.0 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-20 11:00 MST 46.0 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-20 12:00 MST 45.0 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-20 13:00 MST 44.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 14:00 MST 43.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 15:00 MST 42.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 16:00 MST 41.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 17:00 MST 40.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 18:00 MST 39.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 19:00 MST 38.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 20:00 MST 37.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 21:00 MST 36.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 22:00 MST 35.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-20 23:00 MST 34.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 00:00 MST 33.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 01:00 MST 32.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 02:00 MST 31.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 03:00 MST 30.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 04:00 MST 29.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 05:00 MST 28.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 06:00 MST 27.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 07:00 MST 26.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 08:00 MST 25.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 09:00 MST 24.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 10:00 MST 23.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 11:00 MST 22.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 12:00 MST 21.0 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-21 13:00 MST 20.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 14:00 MST 19.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 15:00 MST 18.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 16:00 MST 17.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 17:00 MST 16.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 18:00 MST 15.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 19:00 MST 14.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 20:00 MST 13.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 21:00 MST 12.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 22:00 MST 11.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-21 23:00 MST 10.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 00:00 MST 9.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 01:00 MST 8.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 02:00 MST 7.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 03:00 MST 6.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 04:00 MST 5.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 05:00 MST 4.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 06:00 MST 3.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 07:00 MST 2.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-22 08:00 MST 1.0 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-09-22 09:00 MST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 08:00 MST 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 07:00 MST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 06:00 MST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 05:00 MST 78.0°F 83.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 04:00 MST 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 03:00 MST 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 02:00 MST 79.0°F 87.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 01:00 MST 80.0°F 87.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-22 00:00 MST 80.0°F 88.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 23:00 MST 81.0°F 92.0°F -11.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 22:00 MST 84.0°F 93.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 21:00 MST 87.0°F 93.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 20:00 MST 90.0°F 95.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 19:00 MST 92.0°F 97.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 18:00 MST 95.0°F 99.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 17:00 MST 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 16:00 MST 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 15:00 MST 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 14:00 MST 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 13:00 MST 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 12:00 MST 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 11:00 MST 93.0°F 94.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 10:00 MST 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 09:00 MST 86.0°F 89.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 08:00 MST 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 07:00 MST 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 06:00 MST 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 05:00 MST 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 04:00 MST 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 03:00 MST 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 02:00 MST 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 01:00 MST 83.0°F 90.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-21 00:00 MST 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 23:00 MST 86.0°F 91.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 22:00 MST 88.0°F 94.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 21:00 MST 90.0°F 96.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 20:00 MST 92.0°F 98.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 19:00 MST 94.0°F 98.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 18:00 MST 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 17:00 MST 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 16:00 MST 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 15:00 MST 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 14:00 MST 97.0°F 100.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 13:00 MST 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 12:00 MST 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 11:00 MST 92.0°F 93.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 10:00 MST 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 09:00 MST 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 08:00 MST 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 07:00 MST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 06:00 MST 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 05:00 MST 76.0°F 81.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 04:00 MST 77.0°F 82.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 03:00 MST 77.0°F 83.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 02:00 MST 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 01:00 MST 80.0°F 87.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-20 00:00 MST 80.0°F 88.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 23:00 MST 81.0°F 89.0°F -8.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 22:00 MST 84.0°F 93.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 21:00 MST 86.0°F 96.0°F -10.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 20:00 MST 89.0°F 98.0°F -9.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 19:00 MST 92.0°F 98.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 18:00 MST 95.0°F 100.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 17:00 MST 98.0°F 100.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 16:00 MST 98.0°F 102.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 15:00 MST 98.0°F 102.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 14:00 MST 98.0°F 99.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 13:00 MST 96.0°F 100.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 12:00 MST 96.0°F 96.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 11:00 MST 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 10:00 MST 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 09:00 MST 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 08:00 MST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 07:00 MST 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 06:00 MST 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 05:00 MST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 04:00 MST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 03:00 MST 80.0°F 83.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 02:00 MST 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 01:00 MST 83.0°F 87.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-19 00:00 MST 84.0°F 89.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 23:00 MST 85.0°F 90.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 22:00 MST 87.0°F 92.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 21:00 MST 89.0°F 96.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 20:00 MST 91.0°F 98.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 19:00 MST 94.0°F 97.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 18:00 MST 96.0°F 99.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 17:00 MST 99.0°F 101.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 16:00 MST 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 15:00 MST 98.0°F 101.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 14:00 MST 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 13:00 MST 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 12:00 MST 93.0°F 96.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 11:00 MST 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 10:00 MST 88.0°F 89.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 09:00 MST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 08:00 MST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 07:00 MST 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 06:00 MST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 05:00 MST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 04:00 MST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 03:00 MST 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 02:00 MST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 01:00 MST 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-18 00:00 MST 82.0°F 84.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 23:00 MST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 22:00 MST 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 21:00 MST 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 20:00 MST 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 19:00 MST 90.0°F 89.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 18:00 MST 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 17:00 MST 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 16:00 MST 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 15:00 MST 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 14:00 MST 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 13:00 MST 90.0°F 86.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 12:00 MST 91.0°F 85.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 11:00 MST 89.0°F 83.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 10:00 MST 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 09:00 MST 84.0°F 80.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 08:00 MST 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 07:00 MST 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 06:00 MST 81.0°F 77.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 05:00 MST 80.0°F 76.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 04:00 MST 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 03:00 MST 81.0°F 75.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 02:00 MST 82.0°F 76.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 01:00 MST 83.0°F 75.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-17 00:00 MST 85.0°F 76.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 23:00 MST 86.0°F 74.0°F +12.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 22:00 MST 87.0°F 74.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 21:00 MST 89.0°F 79.0°F +10.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 20:00 MST 90.0°F 82.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 19:00 MST 91.0°F 82.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 18:00 MST 93.0°F 82.0°F +11.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 17:00 MST 94.0°F 81.0°F +13.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 16:00 MST 94.0°F 79.0°F +15.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 15:00 MST 95.0°F 80.0°F +15.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 14:00 MST 95.0°F 78.0°F +17.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 13:00 MST 93.0°F 87.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 12:00 MST 93.0°F 85.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 11:00 MST 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 10:00 MST 89.0°F 91.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 09:00 MST 86.0°F 90.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 08:00 MST 84.0°F 89.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 07:00 MST 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 06:00 MST 83.0°F 86.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 05:00 MST 82.0°F 87.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 04:00 MST 83.0°F 89.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 03:00 MST 84.0°F 90.0°F -6.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 02:00 MST 85.0°F 90.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 01:00 MST 86.0°F 91.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-16 00:00 MST 88.0°F 93.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 23:00 MST 89.0°F 93.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 22:00 MST 91.0°F 94.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 21:00 MST 93.0°F 95.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 20:00 MST 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 19:00 MST 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 18:00 MST 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 17:00 MST 99.0°F 99.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 16:00 MST 99.0°F 101.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 15:00 MST 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 14:00 MST 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 13:00 MST 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 12:00 MST 96.0°F 97.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 11:00 MST 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 10:00 MST 91.0°F 91.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 09:00 MST 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 08:00 MST 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 07:00 MST 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 06:00 MST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 05:00 MST 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 04:00 MST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 03:00 MST 86.0°F 85.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 02:00 MST 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 01:00 MST 88.0°F 84.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-09-15 00:00 MST 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 23:00 MST 90.0°F 85.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 22:00 MST 92.0°F 86.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 21:00 MST 94.0°F 96.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 20:00 MST 95.0°F 102.0°F -7.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 19:00 MST 97.0°F 101.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 18:00 MST 99.0°F 103.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-09-14 17:00 MST 101.0°F 103.0°F -2.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-09-21 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0°
2026-09-20 99.0°F 100.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-19 98.0°F 102.0°F -4.0° 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0°
2026-09-18 99.0°F 101.0°F -2.0° 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-17 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-09-16 95.0°F 93.0°F +2.0° 81.0°F 74.0°F +7.0°
2026-09-15 99.0°F 101.0°F -2.0° 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0°
2026-09-14 101.0°F 104.0°F -3.0° 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-13 104.0°F 104.0°F +0.0° 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-12 104.0°F 103.0°F +1.0° 86.0°F 86.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-11 105.0°F 106.0°F -1.0° 88.0°F 90.0°F -2.0°
2026-09-10 106.0°F 107.0°F -1.0° 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0°
2026-09-09 106.0°F 105.0°F +1.0° 87.0°F 93.0°F -6.0°
2026-09-08 107.0°F 107.0°F +0.0° 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0°