Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Maine · America/New_York · 44.31, -69.78

Latest observation
81.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
12
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
3.50°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 90.0°F 93.0°F 0 Mostly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 88.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 88.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 88.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 88.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 88.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 88.0°F 92.0°F 0 Mostly Sunny
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 88.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 88.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 88.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 88.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 90.0°F 81.0°F +9.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 88.0°F 82.0°F +6.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 86.0°F 80.0°F +6.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 83.0°F 74.0°F +9.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 80.0°F 74.0°F +6.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 77.0°F 74.0°F +3.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 72.0°F 72.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 13:00 EDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT88.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT88.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT87.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT87.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT87.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT86.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT86.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT86.0°F0Partly Cloudy
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT86.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT86.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT86.0°F

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.