Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Iowa · America/Chicago · 41.59, -93.63

Latest observation
89.0°F
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT
Hour samples (7d)
16
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
2.00°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 17:00 CDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/Chicago).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT 93.0°F 98.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 93.0°F 97.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 93.0°F 97.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 93.0°F 97.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 93.0°F 97.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 93.0°F 97.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 93.0°F 97.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 93.0°F 97.0°F 0 Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 93.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 93.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 93.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 93.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 93.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 93.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 92.0°F — — —
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 92.0°F — — —

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 72.0°F 73.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 73.0°F 73.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 16:00 CDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT93.0°F0Sunny
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT93.0°F——
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT92.0°F——
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT92.0°F——
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT92.0°F——
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT92.0°F——
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT92.0°F——
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT91.0°F——

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.