Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Iowa · America/Chicago · 41.59, -93.63

Latest observation
39.0°F
2026-11-09 06:00 CST · temp 39.0°F · feels 35.0°F · RH 79% · dew 33.0°F · wind 5.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
177
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.41°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-11-09 06:00 CST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (America/Chicago). Actual: 39.0°F.

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

36°37°39°40°41° 46h37h28h19h10h1h actual 39.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 46h37h28h19h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-11-07 08:00 CST 46.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-07 09:00 CST 45.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-07 10:00 CST 44.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-07 11:00 CST 43.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-07 12:00 CST 42.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-07 13:00 CST 41.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-07 14:00 CST 40.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 15:00 CST 39.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 16:00 CST 38.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 17:00 CST 37.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 18:00 CST 36.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 19:00 CST 35.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 20:00 CST 34.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 21:00 CST 33.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 22:00 CST 32.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-07 23:00 CST 31.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 00:00 CST 30.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 01:00 CST 29.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 02:00 CST 28.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 03:00 CST 27.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 04:00 CST 26.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 05:00 CST 25.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 06:00 CST 24.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 07:00 CST 23.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 08:00 CST 22.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 09:00 CST 21.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 10:00 CST 20.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 11:00 CST 19.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 12:00 CST 18.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 13:00 CST 17.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 14:00 CST 16.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 15:00 CST 15.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 16:00 CST 14.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 17:00 CST 13.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 18:00 CST 12.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 19:00 CST 11.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 20:00 CST 10.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 21:00 CST 9.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-08 22:00 CST 8.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-08 23:00 CST 7.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-09 00:00 CST 6.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-09 01:00 CST 5.0 38.0°F 39.0°F -1.0°
2026-11-09 02:00 CST 4.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-09 03:00 CST 3.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-09 04:00 CST 2.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°
2026-11-09 05:00 CST 1.0 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-11-09 06:00 CST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 46.0
2026-11-09 05:00 CST 39.0°F 39.0°F +0.0° 45.0
2026-11-09 04:00 CST 39.0°F 38.0°F +1.0° 44.0
2026-11-09 03:00 CST 39.0°F 41.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-09 02:00 CST 40.0°F 43.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-09 01:00 CST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-09 00:00 CST 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 23:00 CST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 22:00 CST 44.0°F 46.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 21:00 CST 45.0°F 48.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 20:00 CST 48.0°F 50.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 19:00 CST 51.0°F 51.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 18:00 CST 54.0°F 56.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 17:00 CST 56.0°F 57.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 16:00 CST 59.0°F 62.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 15:00 CST 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 14:00 CST 60.0°F 64.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 13:00 CST 59.0°F 63.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 12:00 CST 58.0°F 62.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 11:00 CST 56.0°F 59.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 10:00 CST 52.0°F 54.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 09:00 CST 48.0°F 50.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 08:00 CST 46.0°F 44.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 07:00 CST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 06:00 CST 41.0°F 44.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 05:00 CST 41.0°F 43.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 04:00 CST 42.0°F 43.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 03:00 CST 42.0°F 45.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 02:00 CST 43.0°F 44.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 01:00 CST 39.0°F 43.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-08 00:00 CST 39.0°F 42.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 23:00 CST 40.0°F 42.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 22:00 CST 41.0°F 42.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 21:00 CST 42.0°F 43.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 20:00 CST 44.0°F 43.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 19:00 CST 45.0°F 44.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 18:00 CST 47.0°F 45.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 17:00 CST 50.0°F 48.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 16:00 CST 52.0°F 49.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 15:00 CST 55.0°F 48.0°F +7.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 14:00 CST 54.0°F 46.0°F +8.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 13:00 CST 51.0°F 42.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 12:00 CST 50.0°F 41.0°F +9.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 11:00 CST 46.0°F 40.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 10:00 CST 41.0°F 39.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 09:00 CST 37.0°F 37.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 08:00 CST 35.0°F 33.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 03:00 CST 32.0°F 34.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 02:00 CST 33.0°F 35.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 01:00 CST 33.0°F 36.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-07 00:00 CST 34.0°F 35.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 23:00 CST 34.0°F 37.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 22:00 CST 35.0°F 34.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 21:00 CST 37.0°F 39.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 20:00 CST 39.0°F 40.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 19:00 CST 40.0°F 43.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 18:00 CST 42.0°F 44.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 17:00 CST 44.0°F 47.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 16:00 CST 47.0°F 49.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 15:00 CST 49.0°F 48.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 14:00 CST 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 13:00 CST 47.0°F 46.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 12:00 CST 47.0°F 45.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 11:00 CST 45.0°F 43.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 10:00 CST 44.0°F 42.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 09:00 CST 42.0°F 40.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 08:00 CST 42.0°F 40.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 07:00 CST 41.0°F 40.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 06:00 CST 41.0°F 40.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 05:00 CST 42.0°F 40.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 04:00 CST 43.0°F 41.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 03:00 CST 44.0°F 41.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 02:00 CST 45.0°F 42.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 01:00 CST 45.0°F 42.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-06 00:00 CST 46.0°F 43.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 23:00 CST 47.0°F 44.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 22:00 CST 48.0°F 45.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 21:00 CST 49.0°F 45.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 20:00 CST 49.0°F 45.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 19:00 CST 50.0°F 45.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 18:00 CST 50.0°F 45.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 17:00 CST 50.0°F 46.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 16:00 CST 51.0°F 46.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 15:00 CST 51.0°F 48.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 14:00 CST 51.0°F 49.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 13:00 CST 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 12:00 CST 52.0°F 50.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 11:00 CST 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 10:00 CST 50.0°F 49.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 09:00 CST 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 08:00 CST 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 07:00 CST 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 06:00 CST 46.0°F 48.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 05:00 CST 46.0°F 48.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 04:00 CST 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 03:00 CST 47.0°F 48.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 02:00 CST 47.0°F 47.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 01:00 CST 48.0°F 47.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-05 00:00 CST 48.0°F 47.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 23:00 CST 49.0°F 47.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 22:00 CST 49.0°F 47.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 21:00 CST 50.0°F 47.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 20:00 CST 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 19:00 CST 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 18:00 CST 52.0°F 46.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 17:00 CST 52.0°F 47.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 16:00 CST 53.0°F 48.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 15:00 CST 53.0°F 49.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 14:00 CST 53.0°F 48.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 13:00 CST 55.0°F 49.0°F +6.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 12:00 CST 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 11:00 CST 53.0°F 48.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 10:00 CST 52.0°F 48.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 09:00 CST 51.0°F 47.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 08:00 CST 50.0°F 47.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 07:00 CST 49.0°F 47.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 06:00 CST 48.0°F 48.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 05:00 CST 49.0°F 48.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 04:00 CST 49.0°F 48.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 03:00 CST 50.0°F 48.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 02:00 CST 50.0°F 48.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 01:00 CST 51.0°F 48.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-04 00:00 CST 51.0°F 49.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 23:00 CST 53.0°F 49.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 22:00 CST 54.0°F 50.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 21:00 CST 55.0°F 51.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 20:00 CST 56.0°F 53.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 19:00 CST 58.0°F 57.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 18:00 CST 59.0°F 59.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 17:00 CST 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 16:00 CST 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 15:00 CST 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 14:00 CST 65.0°F 62.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 13:00 CST 66.0°F 63.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 12:00 CST 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 11:00 CST 65.0°F 63.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 10:00 CST 64.0°F 62.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 09:00 CST 63.0°F 62.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 08:00 CST 62.0°F 62.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 07:00 CST 62.0°F 63.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 06:00 CST 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 05:00 CST 61.0°F 66.0°F -5.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 04:00 CST 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 03:00 CST 62.0°F 66.0°F -4.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 02:00 CST 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 01:00 CST 63.0°F 66.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-03 00:00 CST 63.0°F 65.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 23:00 CST 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 22:00 CST 64.0°F 65.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 21:00 CST 65.0°F 65.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 20:00 CST 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 19:00 CST 66.0°F 65.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 18:00 CST 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 17:00 CST 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 16:00 CST 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 15:00 CST 67.0°F 64.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 14:00 CST 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 13:00 CST 67.0°F 63.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 12:00 CST 67.0°F 62.0°F +5.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 11:00 CST 65.0°F 61.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 10:00 CST 64.0°F 60.0°F +4.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 09:00 CST 62.0°F 60.0°F +2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 08:00 CST 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 07:00 CST 61.0°F 60.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 06:00 CST 60.0°F 60.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 05:00 CST 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 04:00 CST 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 03:00 CST 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 02:00 CST 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 01:00 CST 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-02 00:00 CST 57.0°F 60.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 23:00 CST 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 22:00 CST 59.0°F 60.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 21:00 CST 60.0°F 61.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 20:00 CST 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 19:00 CST 62.0°F 61.0°F +1.0° 48.0
2026-11-01 18:00 CST 63.0°F 61.0°F +2.0° 48.0

Daily high / low

Earliest forecast that already covers the local date (morning low and afternoon high), not the first overnight hour at the edge of the hourly window, vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-11-08 61.0°F 64.0°F -3.0° 43.0°F 42.0°F +1.0°
2026-11-07 55.0°F 49.0°F +6.0° 34.0°F 33.0°F +1.0°
2026-11-06 49.0°F 49.0°F +0.0° 40.0°F 34.0°F +6.0°
2026-11-05 51.0°F 50.0°F +1.0° 46.0°F 44.0°F +2.0°
2026-11-04 53.0°F 50.0°F +3.0° 49.0°F 46.0°F +3.0°
2026-11-03 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 58.0°F 49.0°F +9.0°
2026-11-02 67.0°F 65.0°F +2.0° 58.0°F 60.0°F -2.0°
2026-11-01 66.0°F 64.0°F +2.0° 54.0°F 54.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-31 64.0°F 63.0°F +1.0° 51.0°F 52.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-30 61.0°F 61.0°F +0.0° 49.0°F 51.0°F -2.0°
2026-10-29 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 57.0°F 52.0°F +5.0°
2026-10-28 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 56.0°F 56.0°F +0.0°
2026-10-27 72.0°F 67.0°F +5.0° 57.0°F 58.0°F -1.0°
2026-10-26 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 54.0°F 49.0°F +5.0°