Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Hawaii · Pacific/Honolulu · 21.31, -157.86

Latest observation
82.0°F
2026-07-15 19:00 HST · temp 82.0°F · feels — · RH — · dew — · wind —
Hour samples (7d)
47
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.57°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution — Temperature

How the temperature forecast for 2026-07-15 17:00 HST changed each time we re-collected. Times are local (Pacific/Honolulu). Actual: 85.0°F. · Clear hour

Forecast temperature vs actual

X-axis is lead time before the target hour (left = earliest forecast, right = near/at the hour). Blue line = forecast; green dashed = actual once known. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

81°83°84°86°87° 45h36h27h19h10h1h actual 85.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Forecast temperature error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast too warm; negative = too cool. Zero line is perfect. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-2°-1°+0°+1°+2° 45h36h27h19h10h1h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Forecast Actual Error
2026-07-13 20:00 HST 45.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-13 21:00 HST 44.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-13 22:00 HST 43.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-13 23:00 HST 42.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 00:00 HST 41.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 HST 40.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 HST 39.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 HST 38.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 HST 37.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 HST 36.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 HST 35.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 HST 34.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 HST 33.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 HST 32.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 HST 31.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 HST 30.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 HST 29.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 HST 28.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 HST 27.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 HST 26.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 HST 25.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 HST 24.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 HST 23.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 HST 22.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 HST 21.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 HST 20.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 HST 19.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 HST 18.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 HST 17.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 HST 16.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 HST 15.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 HST 14.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 HST 13.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 HST 12.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 HST 11.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 HST 10.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 HST 9.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 HST 8.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 HST 7.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 HST 6.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 HST 5.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 HST 4.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 HST 3.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 HST 2.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 HST 1.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0°

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 19:00 HST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 18:00 HST 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 17:00 HST 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 16:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 15:00 HST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 14:00 HST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 13:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 12:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 11:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 10:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 09:00 HST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 08:00 HST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 07:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 06:00 HST 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 05:00 HST 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 04:00 HST 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 03:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 02:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 01:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 00:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 28.0
2026-07-14 23:00 HST 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-14 22:00 HST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 26.0
2026-07-14 21:00 HST 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 25.0
2026-07-14 20:00 HST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 19:00 HST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 18:00 HST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 17:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 16:00 HST 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 15:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 14:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 13:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 12:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 11:00 HST 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 10:00 HST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 09:00 HST 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 08:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 07:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 06:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 05:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 04:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 03:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 02:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 01:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 00:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-13 23:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-13 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-13 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-13 85.0°F 81.9°F +3.1° 76.0°F 75.6°F +0.4°