Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Georgia · America/New_York · 33.75, -84.39

Latest observation
79.0°F
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT
Hour samples (7d)
13
Forecast ↔ actual matches
Hourly MAE
3.15°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Forecast evolution

How the forecast for 2026-07-14 15:00 EDT changed each time we re-collected, before that hour arrived (and including collections at that hour). Times are local (America/New_York).

Collected at (local) Forecast temp Feels like PoP % Weather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 80.0°F 80.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 80.0°F 80.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F 77 Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 79.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 79.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 79.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 79.0°F
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 79.0°F

Hourly accuracy

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 80.0°F 79.0°F +1.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 78.0°F 84.0°F -6.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 76.0°F 80.0°F -4.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 74.0°F 79.0°F -5.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 72.0°F 76.0°F -4.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 70.0°F 73.0°F -3.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 70.0°F 74.0°F -4.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 71.0°F 74.0°F -3.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 1.0

Evolution for 2026-07-14 14:00 EDT

Collected (local)TempPoPWeather
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT79.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT79.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT78.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT78.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT78.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT78.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT78.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT78.0°F82Scattered Storms
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT78.0°F
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT78.0°F
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT78.0°F
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT78.0°F

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends).

No completed daily comparisons yet.