Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Pennsylvania · America/New_York · 40.27, -76.89

Latest observation
77.0°F
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT · temp 77.0°F · feels 77.0°F · RH 82% · dew 71.0°F · wind 3.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
47
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.79°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT 78.0°F 77.0°F +1.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 01:00 EDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 46.0
2026-07-16 00:00 EDT 82.0°F 81.0°F +1.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 87.0°F 86.0°F +1.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 97.0°F 96.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 99.0°F 97.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 98.0°F 96.0°F +2.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 98.0°F 95.0°F +3.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 96.0°F 94.0°F +2.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 87.0°F 87.0°F +0.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 78.0°F 80.0°F -2.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 75.0°F 76.0°F -1.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 23.0
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 22.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 94.0°F 91.0°F +3.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 74.0°F 73.0°F +1.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 71.0°F 73.0°F -2.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 67.0°F 67.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-15

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 97.0°F , low 74.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

82°87°93°98°103° 45h36h28h19h11h2h actual 97.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-14°-7°+0°+7°+14° 45h36h28h19h11h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

71°75°79°83°87° 45h36h28h19h11h2h actual 74.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-12°-6°+0°+6°+12° 45h36h28h19h11h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 45.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 44.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 43.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 42.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 41.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 40.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 39.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 38.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 37.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 36.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 35.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 34.0 101.0°F 97.0°F +4.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 33.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 32.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 31.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 30.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 29.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 28.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 27.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 26.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 25.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 24.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 23.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 22.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 21.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 20.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 19.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 74.0°F 74.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 18.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 76.0°F 74.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 17.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 16.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 83.0°F 74.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 15.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 85.0°F 74.0°F +11.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 14.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 85.0°F 74.0°F +11.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 13.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 85.0°F 74.0°F +11.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 12.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 85.0°F 74.0°F +11.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 11.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 85.0°F 74.0°F +11.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 10.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 85.0°F 74.0°F +11.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 9.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 8.0 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 7.0 97.0°F 97.0°F +0.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 6.0 95.0°F 97.0°F -2.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 5.0 92.0°F 97.0°F -5.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 4.0 89.0°F 97.0°F -8.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 3.0 86.0°F 97.0°F -11.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 2.0 84.0°F 97.0°F -13.0° 84.0°F 74.0°F +10.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 100.0°F 97.0°F +3.0° 73.0°F 74.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 95.0°F 91.0°F +4.0° 73.0°F 67.0°F +6.0°