Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Kentucky · America/New_York · 38.20, -84.87

Latest observation
77.0°F
2026-07-16 01:00 EDT · temp 77.0°F · feels — · RH — · dew — · wind —
Hour samples (7d)
47
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.91°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 01:00 EDT 74.0°F 77.0°F -3.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 00:00 EDT 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 89.0°F 85.0°F +4.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 86.0°F 83.0°F +3.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 71.0°F 72.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 68.0°F 69.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 72.0°F 74.0°F -2.0° 23.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 87.0°F 84.0°F +3.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 85.0°F 83.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 83.0°F 81.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 73.0°F 75.0°F -2.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 70.0°F 72.0°F -2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 69.0°F 68.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 70.0°F 69.0°F +1.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 71.0°F 71.0°F +0.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-15

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 90.0°F , low 68.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

76°81°86°91°96° 46h37h28h20h11h2h actual 90.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-12°-6°+0°+6°+12° 46h37h28h20h11h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

65°69°73°76°80° 46h37h28h20h11h2h actual 68.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-10°-5°+0°+5°+10° 46h37h28h20h11h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 46.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 45.0 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 44.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 43.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 42.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 41.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 40.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 39.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 38.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 37.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 36.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 35.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 34.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 68.0°F 68.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 33.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 32.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 31.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 30.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 29.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 28.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 27.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 26.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 25.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 24.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 23.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 22.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 21.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 20.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 19.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 18.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 17.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 16.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 76.0°F 68.0°F +8.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 15.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 14.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 13.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 12.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 11.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 10.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 9.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 77.0°F 68.0°F +9.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 8.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 7.0 94.0°F 90.0°F +4.0° 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 6.0 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 5.0 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 4.0 83.0°F 90.0°F -7.0° 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 3.0 80.0°F 90.0°F -10.0° 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 2.0 78.0°F 90.0°F -12.0° 78.0°F 68.0°F +10.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 93.0°F 90.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 68.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 67.0°F 68.0°F -1.0°