Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Illinois · America/Chicago · 39.78, -89.65

Latest observation
71.0°F
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT · temp 71.0°F · feels 71.0°F · RH 96% · dew 70.0°F · wind 0.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
48
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
2.46°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 01:00 CDT 74.0°F 71.0°F +3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 00:00 CDT 76.0°F 73.0°F +3.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 23:00 CDT 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 21:00 CDT 82.0°F 77.0°F +5.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 20:00 CDT 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 19:00 CDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 18:00 CDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 17:00 CDT 91.0°F 87.0°F +4.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT 89.0°F 88.0°F +1.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT 79.0°F 81.0°F -2.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT 75.0°F 77.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT 70.0°F 67.0°F +3.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT 71.0°F 69.0°F +2.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT 72.0°F 70.0°F +2.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT 73.0°F 71.0°F +2.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT 74.0°F 72.0°F +2.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 79.0°F 74.0°F +5.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 81.0°F 76.0°F +5.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 85.0°F 82.0°F +3.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 88.0°F 85.0°F +3.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 89.0°F 86.0°F +3.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 87.0°F 85.0°F +2.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 83.0°F 83.0°F +0.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 69.0°F 69.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 67.0°F 66.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 68.0°F 66.0°F +2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 68.0°F 67.0°F +1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 69.0°F 67.0°F +2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 70.0°F 68.0°F +2.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-15

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 89.0°F , low 66.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

77°82°86°91°95° 47h38h29h20h11h2h actual 89.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-10°-5°+0°+5°+10° 47h38h29h20h11h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

64°68°73°77°81° 47h38h29h20h11h2h actual 66.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-14°-7°+0°+7°+14° 47h38h29h20h11h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 01:00 CDT 47.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 CDT 46.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 CDT 45.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 CDT 44.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 CDT 43.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 CDT 42.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 CDT 41.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 CDT 40.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 CDT 39.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 CDT 38.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 CDT 37.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 CDT 36.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 CDT 35.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 CDT 34.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 CDT 33.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 CDT 32.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 CDT 31.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 CDT 30.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 CDT 29.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 CDT 28.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 CDT 27.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 CDT 26.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 23:00 CDT 25.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 00:00 CDT 24.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 01:00 CDT 23.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 02:00 CDT 22.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 03:00 CDT 21.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 04:00 CDT 20.0 93.0°F 89.0°F +4.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-15 05:00 CDT 19.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-15 06:00 CDT 18.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 66.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-15 07:00 CDT 17.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 76.0°F 66.0°F +10.0°
2026-07-15 08:00 CDT 16.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 09:00 CDT 15.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 10:00 CDT 14.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 11:00 CDT 13.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 12:00 CDT 12.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 13:00 CDT 11.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 14:00 CDT 10.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 15:00 CDT 9.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 16:00 CDT 8.0 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 17:00 CDT 7.0 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 18:00 CDT 6.0 89.0°F 89.0°F +0.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 19:00 CDT 5.0 85.0°F 89.0°F -4.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 20:00 CDT 4.0 82.0°F 89.0°F -7.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 21:00 CDT 3.0 81.0°F 89.0°F -8.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-15 22:00 CDT 2.0 79.0°F 89.0°F -10.0° 79.0°F 66.0°F +13.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 71.0°F 66.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 91.0°F 89.0°F +2.0° 70.0°F 66.0°F +4.0°