Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Connecticut · America/New_York · 41.77, -72.67

Latest observation
76.0°F
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT · temp 76.0°F · feels 76.0°F · RH 45% · dew 53.0°F · wind 8.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
48
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
3.65°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 02:00 EDT 73.0°F 76.0°F -3.0° 48.0
2026-07-16 01:00 EDT 75.0°F 78.0°F -3.0° 47.0
2026-07-16 00:00 EDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 23:00 EDT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 22:00 EDT 80.0°F 78.0°F +2.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 21:00 EDT 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 20:00 EDT 84.0°F 79.0°F +5.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 19:00 EDT 88.0°F 80.0°F +8.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 18:00 EDT 91.0°F 81.0°F +10.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 17:00 EDT 94.0°F 82.0°F +12.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 16:00 EDT 94.0°F 83.0°F +11.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 15:00 EDT 94.0°F 84.0°F +10.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 14:00 EDT 95.0°F 85.0°F +10.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 13:00 EDT 93.0°F 87.0°F +6.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 12:00 EDT 92.0°F 88.0°F +4.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 11:00 EDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 10:00 EDT 88.0°F 88.0°F +0.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 09:00 EDT 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 08:00 EDT 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 07:00 EDT 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 06:00 EDT 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 05:00 EDT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 04:00 EDT 77.0°F 81.0°F -4.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 03:00 EDT 79.0°F 82.0°F -3.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 02:00 EDT 79.0°F 83.0°F -4.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 01:00 EDT 81.0°F 83.0°F -2.0° 23.0
2026-07-15 00:00 EDT 82.0°F 79.0°F +3.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 23:00 EDT 83.0°F 80.0°F +3.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 84.0°F 81.0°F +3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 86.0°F 82.0°F +4.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 88.0°F 87.0°F +1.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 92.0°F 89.0°F +3.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 95.0°F 90.0°F +5.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 96.0°F 89.0°F +7.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 95.0°F 88.0°F +7.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 93.0°F 87.0°F +6.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 92.0°F 87.0°F +5.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 89.0°F 87.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 86.0°F 84.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 82.0°F 82.0°F +0.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 74.0°F 76.0°F -2.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 68.0°F 70.0°F -2.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 69.0°F 70.0°F -1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 69.0°F 71.0°F -2.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 70.0°F 71.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-14

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 90.0°F , low 70.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

81°86°91°95°100° 22h18h14h10h6h2h actual 90.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-8°-4°+0°+4°+8° 22h18h14h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

68°72°77°81°85° 22h18h14h10h6h2h actual 70.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-14°-7°+0°+7°+14° 22h18h14h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 02:00 EDT 22.0 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 EDT 21.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 EDT 20.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 EDT 19.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 EDT 18.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 EDT 17.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 EDT 16.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 EDT 15.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 EDT 14.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 EDT 13.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 EDT 12.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 EDT 11.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 EDT 10.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 EDT 9.0 98.0°F 90.0°F +8.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 EDT 8.0 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 EDT 7.0 92.0°F 90.0°F +2.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 EDT 6.0 90.0°F 90.0°F +0.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 EDT 5.0 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 EDT 4.0 87.0°F 90.0°F -3.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 EDT 3.0 85.0°F 90.0°F -5.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 EDT 2.0 83.0°F 90.0°F -7.0° 83.0°F 70.0°F +13.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 96.0°F 88.0°F +8.0° 68.0°F 75.0°F -7.0°
2026-07-14 96.0°F 90.0°F +6.0° 75.0°F 70.0°F +5.0°