Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Utah · America/Denver · 40.76, -111.89

Latest observation
84.0°F
2026-07-16 00:00 MDT · temp 84.0°F · feels 84.0°F · RH 33% · dew 52.0°F · wind 5.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
47
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.96°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-16 00:00 MDT 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 23:00 MDT 84.0°F 88.0°F -4.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 22:00 MDT 86.0°F 88.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 21:00 MDT 89.0°F 90.0°F -1.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 20:00 MDT 91.0°F 93.0°F -2.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 19:00 MDT 92.0°F 94.0°F -2.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 18:00 MDT 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 17:00 MDT 94.0°F 95.0°F -1.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 16:00 MDT 94.0°F 94.0°F +0.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 15:00 MDT 95.0°F 94.0°F +1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 14:00 MDT 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 13:00 MDT 91.0°F 90.0°F +1.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 12:00 MDT 90.0°F 87.0°F +3.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 11:00 MDT 87.0°F 82.0°F +5.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 10:00 MDT 84.0°F 82.0°F +2.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 09:00 MDT 80.0°F 80.0°F +0.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 08:00 MDT 76.0°F 78.0°F -2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 07:00 MDT 73.0°F 78.0°F -5.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 06:00 MDT 74.0°F 78.0°F -4.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 05:00 MDT 76.0°F 77.0°F -1.0° 28.0
2026-07-15 04:00 MDT 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 27.0
2026-07-15 03:00 MDT 79.0°F 79.0°F +0.0° 26.0
2026-07-15 02:00 MDT 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 25.0
2026-07-15 01:00 MDT 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 24.0
2026-07-15 00:00 MDT 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 23:00 MDT 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT 88.0°F 86.0°F +2.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT 91.0°F 88.0°F +3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT 96.0°F 91.0°F +5.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT 98.0°F 94.0°F +4.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 18:00 MDT 98.0°F 94.0°F +4.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 16:00 MDT 99.0°F 96.0°F +3.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 15:00 MDT 99.0°F 98.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT 99.0°F 95.0°F +4.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 97.0°F 93.0°F +4.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 95.0°F 92.0°F +3.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 93.0°F 91.0°F +2.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 90.0°F 88.0°F +2.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 85.0°F 86.0°F -1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 81.0°F 82.0°F -1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 78.0°F 78.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 77.0°F 79.0°F -2.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 4.0
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 3.0
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 81.0°F 81.0°F +0.0° 2.0
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 83.0°F 82.0°F +1.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-14

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 98.0°F , low 78.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

83°88°93°98°103° 23h19h15h10h6h2h actual 98.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-14°-7°+0°+7°+14° 23h19h15h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

70°74°79°83°87° 23h19h15h10h6h2h actual 78.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-8°-4°+0°+4°+8° 23h19h15h10h6h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 01:00 MDT 23.0 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 MDT 22.0 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 MDT 21.0 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 MDT 20.0 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 MDT 19.0 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 MDT 18.0 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 MDT 17.0 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 MDT 16.0 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 84.0°F 78.0°F +6.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 MDT 15.0 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 MDT 14.0 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 MDT 13.0 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 MDT 12.0 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 MDT 11.0 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 MDT 10.0 100.0°F 98.0°F +2.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 MDT 9.0 99.0°F 98.0°F +1.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 MDT 8.0 99.0°F 98.0°F +1.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 MDT 7.0 98.0°F 98.0°F +0.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 MDT 6.0 97.0°F 98.0°F -1.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 MDT 5.0 96.0°F 98.0°F -2.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 MDT 4.0 92.0°F 98.0°F -6.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 MDT 3.0 88.0°F 98.0°F -10.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 MDT 2.0 85.0°F 98.0°F -13.0° 85.0°F 78.0°F +7.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-15 96.0°F 95.0°F +1.0° 71.0°F 77.0°F -6.0°
2026-07-14 101.0°F 98.0°F +3.0° 72.0°F 78.0°F -6.0°