Chance of Wrong · forecast accuracy

Tracking Xweather forecasts vs actuals for 50 US state capitals

← Dashboard · Hawaii · Pacific/Honolulu · 21.31, -157.86

Latest observation
80.0°F
2026-07-15 20:00 HST · temp 80.0°F · feels 83.0°F · RH 67% · dew 68.0°F · wind 12.0 mph
Hour samples (7d)
48
Temperature matches
Temp MAE
1.56°
Earliest forecast vs actual

Hourly accuracy — Temperature

Click an hour to load its forecast evolution above. Switch metrics with the control above.

Hour (local) Forecast Actual Error Lead (h)
2026-07-15 20:00 HST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 48.0
2026-07-15 19:00 HST 80.0°F 82.0°F -2.0° 47.0
2026-07-15 18:00 HST 81.0°F 84.0°F -3.0° 46.0
2026-07-15 17:00 HST 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 45.0
2026-07-15 16:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 44.0
2026-07-15 15:00 HST 84.0°F 86.0°F -2.0° 43.0
2026-07-15 14:00 HST 85.0°F 85.0°F +0.0° 42.0
2026-07-15 13:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 41.0
2026-07-15 12:00 HST 85.0°F 84.0°F +1.0° 40.0
2026-07-15 11:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 39.0
2026-07-15 10:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 38.0
2026-07-15 09:00 HST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 37.0
2026-07-15 08:00 HST 78.0°F 79.0°F -1.0° 36.0
2026-07-15 07:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 35.0
2026-07-15 06:00 HST 77.0°F 72.0°F +5.0° 34.0
2026-07-15 05:00 HST 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 33.0
2026-07-15 04:00 HST 77.0°F 73.0°F +4.0° 32.0
2026-07-15 03:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 31.0
2026-07-15 02:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 30.0
2026-07-15 01:00 HST 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0° 29.0
2026-07-15 00:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 28.0
2026-07-14 23:00 HST 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 27.0
2026-07-14 22:00 HST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 26.0
2026-07-14 21:00 HST 78.0°F 76.0°F +2.0° 25.0
2026-07-14 20:00 HST 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0° 24.0
2026-07-14 19:00 HST 79.0°F 80.0°F -1.0° 23.0
2026-07-14 18:00 HST 80.0°F 81.0°F -1.0° 22.0
2026-07-14 17:00 HST 82.0°F 83.0°F -1.0° 21.0
2026-07-14 16:00 HST 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 20.0
2026-07-14 15:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 19.0
2026-07-14 14:00 HST 84.0°F 83.0°F +1.0° 18.0
2026-07-14 13:00 HST 84.0°F 84.0°F +0.0° 17.0
2026-07-14 12:00 HST 83.0°F 84.0°F -1.0° 16.0
2026-07-14 11:00 HST 83.0°F 76.0°F +7.0° 15.0
2026-07-14 10:00 HST 81.0°F 80.0°F +1.0° 14.0
2026-07-14 09:00 HST 79.0°F 77.0°F +2.0° 13.0
2026-07-14 08:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 12.0
2026-07-14 07:00 HST 77.0°F 76.0°F +1.0° 11.0
2026-07-14 06:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 10.0
2026-07-14 05:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 9.0
2026-07-14 04:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 8.0
2026-07-14 03:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 7.0
2026-07-14 02:00 HST 76.0°F 76.0°F +0.0° 6.0
2026-07-14 01:00 HST 76.0°F 75.0°F +1.0° 5.0
2026-07-14 00:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 4.0
2026-07-13 23:00 HST 77.0°F 77.0°F +0.0° 3.0
2026-07-13 22:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 2.0
2026-07-13 21:00 HST 77.0°F 78.0°F -1.0° 1.0

Daily forecast evolution — 2026-07-14

How the forecasted daily high and low for this local calendar day changed each time we re-collected, until the day ended. Lead time is hours until local midnight (end of day). Final actuals: high 85.0°F , low 75.0°F. · Clear date

Daily high forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily high at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual high.

76°79°82°84°87° 28h23h18h12h7h2h actual 85.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily high error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast high too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-8°-4°+0°+4°+8° 28h23h18h12h7h2h Lead time (hours)
Daily low forecast vs actual

Each point is the forecasted daily low at that collection time. Lead time is hours until the local day ended. Green dashed = finalized actual low.

72°74°76°78°80° 28h23h18h12h7h2h actual 75.0°F Lead time (hours)
Forecast Actual
Daily low error (forecast − actual)

Positive = forecast low too warm; negative = too cool. Move the cursor across the chart for details.

-4°-2°+0°+2°+4° 28h23h18h12h7h2h Lead time (hours)
Collected at (local) Lead (h) Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-13 20:00 HST 28.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-13 21:00 HST 27.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-13 22:00 HST 26.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-13 23:00 HST 25.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 00:00 HST 24.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 01:00 HST 23.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 02:00 HST 22.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 03:00 HST 21.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-14 04:00 HST 20.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 74.0°F 75.0°F -1.0°
2026-07-14 05:00 HST 19.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 06:00 HST 18.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 07:00 HST 17.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 75.0°F 75.0°F +0.0°
2026-07-14 08:00 HST 16.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 09:00 HST 15.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 10:00 HST 14.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 11:00 HST 13.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 12:00 HST 12.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 13:00 HST 11.0 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 14:00 HST 10.0 83.0°F 85.0°F -2.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 15:00 HST 9.0 82.0°F 85.0°F -3.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 16:00 HST 8.0 81.0°F 85.0°F -4.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 17:00 HST 7.0 80.0°F 85.0°F -5.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 18:00 HST 6.0 79.0°F 85.0°F -6.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 19:00 HST 5.0 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 20:00 HST 4.0 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 21:00 HST 3.0 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°
2026-07-14 22:00 HST 2.0 78.0°F 85.0°F -7.0° 78.0°F 75.0°F +3.0°

Daily high / low

Earliest daily forecast vs finalized calendar-day max/min (only after the local day ends). Click a date to see how the high/low forecast evolved toward the actual.

Local date Fcst high Act high High err Fcst low Act low Low err
2026-07-14 84.0°F 85.0°F -1.0° 77.0°F 75.0°F +2.0°
2026-07-13 85.0°F 81.9°F +3.1° 76.0°F 75.6°F +0.4°